Olympic hockey 2010

The puck hits the ice this evening, so it's high time for our official 2010 Winter Olympics men's hockey preview. This is also our first "official" prediction, meaning we're going to lay our insignificant reputations on the line and actually tell you who'll win it. So this is how those of us concerned with hockey, meaning everybody except the new guy, see Vancouver working out.
(we accept no liability for gambling losses; we'll end up with enough of our own to worry about)

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The tournament is actually set up interestingly. There are three groups of four teams, which are as follows, with their placement on the IIHF World Ranking in brackets:

Group A

Canada (2)
USA (5)
Switzerland (7)
Norway (11)

Group B

Russia (1)
Latvia (10)
Czech Republic (6)
Slovakia (9)

Group C

Sweden (3)
Finland (4)
Belarus (8)
Germany (12)

After the first round, the best team in each group advances directly to the quarterfinals, along with the best second-place team. The remaining eight are paired up and play a single elimination game, with the winners taking on the four direct qualifiers in the quarterfinals.

In short, if you can win your initial group, you avoid the "eighth-final" elimination game altogether, and get home ice advantage in the quarterfinals. The "best second" also gets this.

We like this tournament set-up, because the initial games really do matter now. You have to win them, and win them big, because it's almost certain that after the initial round, several teams will have equal points, so goal differentials come into play in re-seeding teams for the elimination games.

That's also what will probably make this a surprisingly tough tournament for the "big countries". The first games will matter, and remember that for all the top-ranked countries, most, if not all, of their team barely gets any preparation time for this tournament at all. It's not easy to be firing on all cylinders right off the bat! (I love mixing metaphors; this one creates the impression of an internal-combustion powered missile being fired off the end of a baseball bat, which is an image I thoroughly enjoy)

This makes predicting outcomes slightly difficult. What makes it even worse is that really, it's impossible to just look at the rosters and say "this country will win bronze". It's going to be a really close tournament. On the other hand, that's what makes this interesting.

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That's the introduction over with. We figure that since we're doing this, we might as well provide you with a complete scenario. Having already said that this is going to be a close tournament and a tough one to call, we'll be looking at it from bottom to top. For starters, we'll proceed by group.

First of all, some general observations on the teams.

Group A

Canada - Oh, Canada. Clocking in at an average age of 28, the Canadians bring a surprisingly young team. Mostly this is because of bad memories attached to some obscure Italian city that may or may not have hosted the Winter Olympics a few years back. What can we say? It's a fantastic roster, sure, and it's hard not to pick the home team to win the whole thing. Then again, one remembers Torino (even if they don't), and the '08 world champs, also in Canada. It's funny that after everyone spent the entire '90s talking about how Russia was a team made up of moody superstars who would either gel or go out in flames, now Canada is the team with the biggest mental question mark attached. How will they do under the pressure of the home audience, with literally all of Canada watching?

USA - We like the Americans. In general, sure, but also to do well in this tournament. A young, fast, dangerous team, who should have plenty of fight in them. Of course, with youth comes inexperience. Apart from a few exceptions, most of the roster has very little experience of either NHL playoffs or international tournaments. We're also not entirely sold on Ron Wilson, but when it's such a short tournament, who knows how much difference the guy behind the bench will make? We think they'll do well, but the lack of experience could show.

Switzerland & Norway - It's a little cruel to simply bypass the native country of one of our bloggers with a shrug, but sadly, that's the case with Switzerland and Norway. The Swiss have an outside chance of squeezing into the quarterfinals, but really, the only interest attached to them is whether they can give either of the previous two teams a nasty shock in the opening round. Having said that, Norway did surprisingly well at the last two World Championships, and if the Swiss get their game going, they might make life surprisingly difficult for an opponent in an elimination game.

Group B

Russia - The record and roster speak for themselves. Under head coach Bykov, the Russians are just plain scary. The only question mark is the defense corps; the goaltending is top-notch, and if we have to explain the forwards, then I'm not sure where to start. The big red machine is back, and the Russians really are the team to beat here.

Latvia - The once proud country of Arturs Irbe, now reduced to a single sentence in our preview.

Czech Republic - We don't like them to do well here. A team of aging superstars and indifferent younger players, the Czechs always step up their game at big tournaments, but there's an inescapable feeling that time has passed by the Czechs. A dangerous team, sure, but not podium material.

Slovakia - Mixed feelings. On the one hand, the Slovaks have great upset potential; on the other hand, that's all they have these days. This team is basically the old world champion team (their youngest forward is Márian Gáborik(!)) with a couple of new guys added on. Like the Czechs, potentially very dangerous, but also like the Czechs, another team that time forgot.

Group C

Sweden - Another team we're skeptical about, and not just because we're from Finland. With an average age of 31 years, there's quite a few guys from the old guard with gold medals from Torino still hanging around their necks. How interested are they really going to be in this tournament? Peter Forsberg seems to be, but frankly, we're astonished he's on the roster. With a grand total of 17 games this season, is he really up for this? The only young forwards on the roster are Bäckström, Hörnqvist and Eriksson, so one might say the Swedes also have a bit of a "changing of the guard" issue ahead of them. By the way, why is Stefan Liv on the roster? Where's Johan Hedberg? Anyway, like the Czechs and the Slovaks, on the face of it, the Swedish team doesn't look too impressive. That's no reason to count them out, though.

Finland - For once, we feel good about Team Finland's roster. In individual skills, like always, Team Finland can't hope to match any of the "big countries", but the guys do play well together as a team, especially at big tournaments like the Olympics and the World Cup. We have leadership, world-class goaltending, and we have guys who are still pissed off that we lost to the Swedes at Torino. The new Team Finland top line is making its debut here around Mikko Koivu, so the torch is being passed on, but at least we have someone to pass it to in Mikko Koivu, Tuomo Ruutu and Valtteri Filppula, among others. More thoughts on the Finnish roster on the Finnish-language blog, but suffice to say that the defensive corps is the biggest question.

Belarus & Germany - Sadly, Belarus won't be repeating the miracle of Salt Lake City in this tournament (okay, we hope they will, but it's unlikely). Germany may, like Switzerland, prove a surprisingly tough nut to crack, but if either of these countries makes it to the quarterfinals, we'd consider it a major upset.


To sum up, we see the participating countries falling into five groups:

1. Canada and Russia: the most likely finalists, and quite simply, the best two teams in the tournament.

2. USA: if neither of the above takes the gold home, it's going to be the Americans. Biggest upset potential in the tournament.

3. Finland and Sweden: The five countries mentioned so far will divide up the medals amongst themselves, unless something shocking happens.

4. Czechs and Slovaks: It will take an upset for these guys to be involved in the semifinals, but it's not impossible.

5. The others. The above seven countries, and one lucky winner from the rest, will make up the quarterfinal pairs. If it isn't that simple, that's already an upset. Unless something goes terribly wrong for one of the big countries, these guys don't stand a chance.

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Whew. There's our thoughts on where the teams stand. Now we'll break it down by groups, game by game.

Group A

USA - SUI

A potentially tough opener for the Americans. It'll be hard for the Americans to make their game gel right away, and the Swiss have the advantage of a longer prep time, and top-notch goaltending from Jonas Hiller. We expect the Americans to come out swinging, but it may get surprisingly sticky if the Swiss have their defensive game together. Remember, they did beat the Canadians in Torino's opening round.

It could turn into a blowout, but we expect a fairly close game. 3-1 or thereabouts to the Americans.

CAN - NOR

It's Canada's opening game in front of their home crowd, with something to prove to the fans. It's easy to see how this could get surprisingly difficult for the home side, but then again, it's Norway. Unless the Canadians fail hideously, we're thinking something between 5-2 or 8-1 to Canada.

USA - NOR

By any rights, this should be a massacre. Team USA should be getting into the swing of things by now, and the Norwegians will have less than 24 hours to recover from Canada. This should be the highest-scoring game in the tournament. 12-1.

SUI - CAN

On the one hand, vengeance for the opening round in Torino; on the other hand, if the Swiss can stick to their game, they can make this a frustrating experience for the Canadians. Having the Swiss stand them up in front of their home fans will really test Team Canada, so there is some slight potential for wackiness here, but really, it would be madness to bet on anything but a Canadian win in regulation. 5-2 Canada.

NOR - SUI

This one's going to Switzerland. If the Swiss can play their game, and they always do, they'll take this one home to finish third in their group. 4-1 Switzerland.

CAN - USA

And finally, the big one in Group A. It'll take more than one unlikely game finish for this not to be for the group win, so this is the big game. This is the young Americans' first big game in the tournament, and while it's going to be a hard-fought one, we think Canada will take this one 4-3 to emerge as group winner.


If this is what happens, we end up with a surprisingly neat group table:

Canada, 9 points
USA, 6
Switzerland, 3
Norway, 0

Alas, poor Switzerland and Norway, but them's the breaks.

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Group B

RUS - LAT

Oh dear. Latvia's fallen far in the last few years, and quite frankly, the only thing that will keep the numbers down here is that the Russians rarely flog a dead horse. Even though it's Canadians who usually scream about not scoring gratuitious goals against an already beaten opponent, they're the ones who do that in international play, not the Russians. As far as we can tell, the Russians just can't be bothered. 6-0 Russia for the first shutout of the tournament; either Nabokov or Brizgalov will do.

CZE - SVK

This is a tough one to call, because this is Central Europe's equivalent of the Finland-Sweden game. As we understand it, there's some emotional involvement in these games, which makes them unpredictable. On the whole, we think Slovakia has a better team in these games than the Czechs, but the Czechs have superior goaltending and Jaromír Jágr. We confidently but unrealistically expect Gáborik to score five goals. As this is also the first game in the tournament for both teams, there is extra potential for weirdness. Realistically speaking, 3-2 Slovakia.

SVK - RUS

The real test of Slovakia's upset potential will be how they do against the Russians. This is the kind of game the Russians can lose; we don't think they will, but they could, so we'd be leery about betting on this one. The Slovaks don't bring a lot to the tournament, but they do have proven goal-scorers, and the Russians' biggest weakness is their defence. Which ever goalie plays for Russia may find himself somewhat beleaguered as this could turn into a proper scoring competition. 5-3 to Russia, if not even higher.

CZE - LAT

Despite all the mean things we've said about the Czechs, this one's a foregone conclusion. 8-1 to the Czechs.

LAT - SVK

Alas, poor Latvia: 24 hours after that beatdown they meet Zdeno Chára and Márian Gáborik, still irate over losing to Russia. This is a horrible group for the Latvians, as it's hard to see them being anything other than a punching bag. 6-2 to Slovakia.

RUS - CZE

The Russians are so going to beat them. The Czechs should go down with their boots on, but they should go down. The only caveat is that if the Russians have defensive weaknesses, and we think they might, Jágr and friends are the guys to take advantage of it. Given the Czechs' rubbish performance internationally of late, and the general bad vibe we're getting from their roster, we believe the Russians will take this in regulation at 5-2.

Again, a strangely neat group table:

Russia, 9
Slovakia, 6
Czech Republic, 3
Latvia, 0

Frankly, this will not happen. It's exceedingly unlikely that neither group will provide even a single overtime game, and we may even see a shootout, but this is a scenario, and this is what we'd bet on. Russia should be a lock to win the group and advance directly to the quarterfinals.

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Group C

FIN - BLR

Finland's opening game, against a country that is in the running to finish dead last in the tournament. It'll end 5-2, because while Kiprusoff is perfectly capable of shutting out a team like Belarus, the rest of Team Finland isn't. This is the only game where Finland could potentially score a blowout, but we never do; instead, we'll screw up in our own end, miss out more scoring chances than you can possibly imagine, and generally play like Finland does. 5-2 to Finland.

SWE - GER

If Sweden is going to flop in this tournament, this is where they'll do it. Germany is usually a pretty solid team, notwithstanding last year's world champs debacle, and we really don't see much offensive brilliance in Team Sweden outside Nicklas Bäckström and possibly the Sedins, if they feel like it. These teams are really in different leagues, so the difference will swing to Sweden, but only at 3-1.

BLR - SWE

Oh, if only. As it is, though, Tommy Salo isn't on the team, and Belarus aren't what they used to be, so that particular brand of lightning won't strike twice in North America. After butting heads with Germany, the Swedes will relish the opportunity to relax a little and deal out some righteous vengeance to Belarus. Despite less than 24 hours of downtime, this will be the biggest-scoring game in Group C, with Sweden winning 8-1.

FIN - GER

If Team Finland takes this game seriously, and Kiprusoff plays, this is a foregone conclusion. If they take it easy, and Bäckström plays, it might get surprisingly tricky. We're confident Finland will win this, though, and as a World Cup throwback (remember when we last had one of those?), we're saying Finland takes this 3-0.

GER - BLR

4-1 Germany. The Germans grind out their normal defensive game, the Belarussians take penalties and the Germans hit them on the power play. This is the Germans' game, and they know it, especially after their rubbish performances at the world champs lately.

SWE - FIN

In Finnish hockey, this is El Clásico: Finland and Sweden. The underdog and the arch-nemesis, this time with the added bonus of being a repeat of the previous Olympic final. This actually makes us like Finland better for this: it's payback time! Frankly, this game will probably be Team Finland's high point in the tournament; it's all downhill from here on. Nothing motivates our guys like Sweden. Finland will beat Sweden, and the Finnish press will start planning the parade route. Finland takes it 5-2.


We think Finland will win the group and take a quarterfinal spot.

Finland, 9 points
Sweden, 6
Germany, 3
Belarus, 0

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So in short, we think that this is going to be the neatest tournament ever, with no overtime games. We don't, really, but it's almost impossible to predict which of these games will end up in overtime. Some of them almost certainly will, but if we knew ahead of time which ones they are, we'd make a fair deal of money.

In general, our result predictions are rough ballpark guesses; even we wouldn't put money on the exact numbers or a small spread. If we really knew how to do this, we wouldn't give it away for free! So take this stuff with a grain of salt.

If the initial round plays out like we think, the four countries going directly to the quarterfinals are Russia, Canada, Finland and the United states. Here's the elimination round, game by game; at this point, calling scores gets a bit dodgy, so we'll just settle for telling you who goes through, and goal differentials don't matter for seeding purposes any more.

SWE-NOR

Sorry, guys, you're going to have a rough tournament. Sweden goes through. Of course, this would be a great opportunity for perhaps the most momentous failure in Swedish hockey history, so we'll be rooting for that; it's just that we don't believe in it.

SVK-LAT

Yeah. Slovakia.

CZE-BLR

Also a fairly foregone conclusion. The Czechs.

SUI-GER

This is really the only interesting game in the whole elimination round. These guys have done this before, and if the chips fall like we think they will, the hegemony of Central Europe is again up for grabs. We think Switzerland will take this, but it may go to overtime. In general, Switzerland has surpassed Germany decisively in international hockey over the past few years, and Switzerland will squeeze into the quarterfinals.

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Quarterfinals

Now we get to the big games. These are the trickiest games to call in some ways, because it's a single elimination game.

RUS-SUI

Okay, this is the least big game. Realistically speaking, there's simply no way the Russians aren't going to win this. This is the best opportunity to ruin your entire tournament in one game, but they know that. Russia.

CAN-CZE

This is Canada's big chance to totally fail; if they're going to flop spectacularly, Torino-style, this is the spot. Certainly they're not going to. We don't think they're going to, so Canada wins. At the end of the day, the Czechs don't have a chance if Canada keeps it together.

FIN-SVK

Potentially tricky. They have superstars, but on the whole, we believe Finland has better goaltending, defense and forwards. If Team Finland plays like they usually do at the Olympics, they should simply be the better team. Finland wins.

USA-SWE

The biggest game of the quarterfinal round, and the biggest game of the tournament for the US team. For the Americans, this game is the difference between a disappointment and an upset. A classic matchup between aging, long-in-the-tooth defending champs Sweden and the young, dynamic, up-and-coming Americans. Both teams are perfectly capable of winning this, making this the hardest game of all to call. We think the US will take it, but it's going to be really close, and could go either way.

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Semifinals

Russia - USA

This is the end of the road for the Americans. We say if the Russians come this far, they're going all the way. It's possible Team USA can win this, but we don't think so. Russia goes to the final.

Canada - Finland

The obvious answer is Canada, and we don't disagree. However, this is the one place in the tournament where Canada will have a real opportunity to come apart at the seams. This is the first really big game Team Canada has at the Olympics, and there's a very real chance that the easy tournament will have lulled them into a false sense of security, and their minds are already in the final. If there's one goalie in this tournament who can stop Team Canada, it's Kiprusoff. We can see him standing up the distracted Canadians, who then get frustrated, end up in the penalty box, and the Finnish power play makes them pay. However, even though we can see this happening, it doesn't mean that even we think it's particularly likely. Canada wins, but we might take them to overtime for it.

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Medal games

Bronze medal game: Finland - USA

The eternal truth is that the bronze medal always goes to the team that wants it more. We think the Americans will want it more, leaving Finland in fourth place for the first time since Lake Placid. North America hasn't been kind to Team Finland on the whole, but then again, fourth place is better than most would give us.

Gold medal game: Russia - Canada

Boringly, our detailed game-by-game scenario ends up exactly where we were the minute the topic of this tournament was broached: a final matchup between Canada and Russia. Anything else is a huge upset. Those happen occasionally, but pretty much by definition, they're impossible to predict.

The way the tournament is set up, unless either Canada or Russia bungles catastrophically, this will be the first time they face each other at the Games. It should be a true classic for the ages, and because it should, the game is going to suck. We're going to say Alexander Radulov completes his hat trick in overtime to seal the win for Russia. Ovechkin, by the way, scores no points in the semi-final or final, but gets a couple of big hits in and blocks 12 shots.

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Having said all this, the real final will be Sweden and the Czech Republic, and no-one will understand why. Seriously speaking, this is our monolithic game-by-game prediction. Because it's so precise, we do realize that just one unexpected result in the initial round will completely derail everything and make everything we've written totally worthless. Nonetheless, we're not just making this up out of whole cloth, but there's a painstaking process behind this, and we like processes.

The way we see it, the Russia-Canada final everyone's expecting seems unavoidable, and someone in the International Olympic Committee really, really hates Norway.

Sadly, we think Torino was Finland's best chance ever to win Olympic gold. The hurdles here are just too big for Team Finland to overcome, so Jere Lehtinen won't be joining the Triple Gold Club this year. However, Teemu Selänne is two points away from tying the all-time personal Olympic scoring record, with 35 points in 20 games before this year's tournament. The all-time record is held by Vlastimil Bubnik from the Czechoslovak national team, at 37 points (22+15) in 29 games, and we confidently expect Teemu to set a new record in Vancouver.

Here's a couple of throwaway predictions:

Team most likely to score 0 goals: Norway
Leading scorer: Patrick Kane
Best goaltender: Evgeni Nabokov

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This is the first time we've done a prediction like this, and it was fun to put together. What actually happens is up to chance and the hockey gods; the only thing we really know is that it should be fun to watch. As brutal as it may turn out to be, we'll be back to check how well we did at the end of the tournament. Until then, enjoy the games!