We've done some playoff and World Champs picks before, and they've never gone particularly well. We remain undaunted.
Eastern conference
1. NYR - 8. OTT
Nobody even thought the Senators would make the playoffs, so they've already exceeded expectations by getting this far. If I hadn't seen the Caps-Rangers game where Lundqvist and the Rangers defense couldn't stop a beach ball, I'd have no qualms whatsoever calling this one for the Rangers in five. I'm still picking the Rangers, though.
2. BOS - 7. WSH
Maybe Dale Hunter has actually spent all his time and effort in training the Caps to play devastatingly effective playoff hockey: a solid team defense and top-notch special teams. You know, the stuff they didn't have in the regular season. Unless Tim Thomas goes berserk from the sheer proximity of the federal government, this should be easy for the Bruins. As much as Jack Edwards and Don Cherry make me want to see the Bruins lose horribly, they're unlikely to do it here.
3. FLA - 6. NJ
Kudos to the Panthers for making the playoffs and making the Leafs the only franchise to not make it to the post-season once after the lockout. While I'd like nothing better than to see the Panthers win the East, it's hardly likely they'll make it past the Devils. A solid performance will give them something to build on, even if they lose.
4, PIT - 5. PHI
After five regular season head-to-head games, I would've said Philadelphia. After the feeble, lackluster performance the Flyers phoned in last Saturday, I'm tempted to say Pittsburgh. On the whole, I don't think Philadelphia had the team defense to succeed in the playoffs, but that's what I said when they made it to the finals. I'm betting on Pittsburgh and hoping to lose.
Western conference
1. VAN - 8. LA
I want the Kings to win this series so bad. Full disclosure: I dream of a Panthers-Kings final. I doubt I'll get it. When the Kings hired Darryl Sutter, it was said that he wasn't the right guy to get the Kings the offense they needed; it's that lack of offensive power that's going to sink them against the Canucks. Even Jonathan Quick, who I think should win the Vezina, can only take them so far.
2. STL - 7. SJ
Man, I wish I'd seen more Blues games. The Sharks aren't going anywhere and should have been blown up long ago. Blues in six.
3. PHX - 6. CHI
Five or so years ago, nobody would have believed this was a real playoff series. I can't figure Chicago out: some nights they play like Cup champions, some nights... not. They'll win this one in five games, though.
4. NSH - 5. DET
The Central Division's really been something this year. The Wings and Preds split the season series right down the middle, so this one's anyone's guess. The big question marks are on the Wings' side: will Johan Franzén show up? Which Henrik Zetterberg turns up, the dominating post-season veteran or the useless turnover machine? How will whoever they put in goal do? I'm saying Nashville in seven after a Red Wings choke-up reminiscent of their last trip to the finals.
Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Thursday, May 20, 2010
IHWC: Quarterfinals
So, that's the quarterfinals over with.
Switzerland - Germany
We didn't see this one, but we did think it was particularly ingenious of Switzerland's top scorer, Martin Plüss, to spear a German player in the crotch in the first period and be thrown out of the game. Also, ouch. We're glad to see Germany back in international hockey after a rubbish couple of years, and nothing would make us happier than a German medal.
Sweden - Denmark
The upsets are over, and Denmark finished in eighth place. It was a memorable tournament, though, and we hope to see Denmark in the quarterfinals again. When they're on their game, they can beat anybody.
Canada - Russia
Grapes only made a passing reference to the world champs on Coach's Corner, which isn't surprising; any tournament Canada doesn't win doesn't really count, whether it's the world champs or the Olympics. Sure, they're banging on about the Olympics now, but did anyone as much as mention the Olympics for years after Torino? No. Anyway, Ron said Steven Stamkos was "on a mission" in this game. We agree, if he means a mission to take the stupidest penalties possible. At the end of the first period, Canada was on a power play until Stamkos took a boarding penalty at 20:00 to take Canada off the man advantage. He seemed to go berserk several times in the game for no reason at all.
Come to think of it, that describes the whole team fairly well. Canada played awful, like they did all tournament. In a truly pathetic showing, they lost every game they played against a team in the top 10 of the world ranking, including Switzerland. They ran up the score against the likes of Italy and Norway, and were totally unable to score against anyone else. Unsurprisingly, a fairly pedestrian effort by the Russians sent the Canadians packing, and good riddance to them. This is the Canada we're used to seeing in international play: arrogant, easily frustrated, dirty.
Of course, the Canadians have their excuses ready. With Canada, there's always an excuse. This time, they're parroting it over and over again: the Russians had 13 Olympic players, Canada only had one, and besides, only the Olympics count. Funny, after Torino nobody said only the Olympics count. And anyway, is having only one Olympic player your excuse for losing to Switzerland? The bottom line is that Canada played horribly, and they deserved to drop out of the tournament here.
Finland - Czech Republic
It was a miracle this thing went as far as the shootout, given how horribly Finland played. The Finnish D was constantly in trouble with the Czech offense, and the biggest single reason the game went past regulation was the Czechs' monomaniacal insistence on taking easy shots the goalie could see all the way. The single Czech goal in regulation was a deflection off a Finnish forward's stick. Finland had a power play in overtime, and despite a full two minutes against a confused Czech PK, they did not manage a single shot on goal. That really sums up the Finnish game. The better team won, no question.
**
So, semifinals.
Sweden - Czech Republic
The Swedish press says they got a free pass to the final when the second round ended, with Denmark and the Czechs. Given that Finland had recently beat the Czechs at Vancouver and destroyed them on the Euro Hockey Tour, I think the Finns thought that, too. It would be salutary to remember that the Czechs beat Sweden quite decisively in the initial round of this tournament, and there's no reason they can't repeat the performance. It's especially likely if the Swedes are already planning the party at Sergels torg in their heads.
Russia - Germany
Seriously.
**
If the Swedes do end up in the bronze medal game, I expect them to lose it. They took on Finland for the bronze at the world champs in Canada, and barely showed up at all. They played horribly and failed to score a single goal. The disappointment of missing "their" gold medal party will be so terrible for the Swedes they'll throw the bronze medal game like they did that year. So, this is my guess:
1. Russia
2. Czech Republic
3. Germany
4. Sweden
Switzerland - Germany
We didn't see this one, but we did think it was particularly ingenious of Switzerland's top scorer, Martin Plüss, to spear a German player in the crotch in the first period and be thrown out of the game. Also, ouch. We're glad to see Germany back in international hockey after a rubbish couple of years, and nothing would make us happier than a German medal.
Sweden - Denmark
The upsets are over, and Denmark finished in eighth place. It was a memorable tournament, though, and we hope to see Denmark in the quarterfinals again. When they're on their game, they can beat anybody.
Canada - Russia
Grapes only made a passing reference to the world champs on Coach's Corner, which isn't surprising; any tournament Canada doesn't win doesn't really count, whether it's the world champs or the Olympics. Sure, they're banging on about the Olympics now, but did anyone as much as mention the Olympics for years after Torino? No. Anyway, Ron said Steven Stamkos was "on a mission" in this game. We agree, if he means a mission to take the stupidest penalties possible. At the end of the first period, Canada was on a power play until Stamkos took a boarding penalty at 20:00 to take Canada off the man advantage. He seemed to go berserk several times in the game for no reason at all.
Come to think of it, that describes the whole team fairly well. Canada played awful, like they did all tournament. In a truly pathetic showing, they lost every game they played against a team in the top 10 of the world ranking, including Switzerland. They ran up the score against the likes of Italy and Norway, and were totally unable to score against anyone else. Unsurprisingly, a fairly pedestrian effort by the Russians sent the Canadians packing, and good riddance to them. This is the Canada we're used to seeing in international play: arrogant, easily frustrated, dirty.
Of course, the Canadians have their excuses ready. With Canada, there's always an excuse. This time, they're parroting it over and over again: the Russians had 13 Olympic players, Canada only had one, and besides, only the Olympics count. Funny, after Torino nobody said only the Olympics count. And anyway, is having only one Olympic player your excuse for losing to Switzerland? The bottom line is that Canada played horribly, and they deserved to drop out of the tournament here.
Finland - Czech Republic
It was a miracle this thing went as far as the shootout, given how horribly Finland played. The Finnish D was constantly in trouble with the Czech offense, and the biggest single reason the game went past regulation was the Czechs' monomaniacal insistence on taking easy shots the goalie could see all the way. The single Czech goal in regulation was a deflection off a Finnish forward's stick. Finland had a power play in overtime, and despite a full two minutes against a confused Czech PK, they did not manage a single shot on goal. That really sums up the Finnish game. The better team won, no question.
**
So, semifinals.
Sweden - Czech Republic
The Swedish press says they got a free pass to the final when the second round ended, with Denmark and the Czechs. Given that Finland had recently beat the Czechs at Vancouver and destroyed them on the Euro Hockey Tour, I think the Finns thought that, too. It would be salutary to remember that the Czechs beat Sweden quite decisively in the initial round of this tournament, and there's no reason they can't repeat the performance. It's especially likely if the Swedes are already planning the party at Sergels torg in their heads.
Russia - Germany
Seriously.
**
If the Swedes do end up in the bronze medal game, I expect them to lose it. They took on Finland for the bronze at the world champs in Canada, and barely showed up at all. They played horribly and failed to score a single goal. The disappointment of missing "their" gold medal party will be so terrible for the Swedes they'll throw the bronze medal game like they did that year. So, this is my guess:
1. Russia
2. Czech Republic
3. Germany
4. Sweden
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
IHWC: Qualification round
The quarterfinals are today, and despite the seeming futility of it, I'm keeping up this prediction thing. In fact, our revised qualifying round prediction didn't go so badly; we got the countries right, with the exception of Slovakia and Germany trading places, but I had mentioned that it was a possibility, so I actually feel pretty good about that!
These are the quarterfinal pairs we expected before the tournament:
Canada-Slovakia
Czech Republic-Finland
USA-Sweden
Russia-Switzerland
This is what we expected after the preliminary round:
Russia - Switzerland
Finland - Czech Republic
Sweden - Slovakia
Canada - Germany
And what we're actually getting is:
Russia - Canada
Finland - Czech Republic
Switzerland - Germany
Sweden - Denmark
NHL.com injected a note of humor into the proceedings with a silly report from the world champs, saying this:
These are the quarterfinal pairs we expected before the tournament:
Canada-Slovakia
Czech Republic-Finland
USA-Sweden
Russia-Switzerland
This is what we expected after the preliminary round:
Russia - Switzerland
Finland - Czech Republic
Sweden - Slovakia
Canada - Germany
And what we're actually getting is:
Russia - Canada
Finland - Czech Republic
Switzerland - Germany
Sweden - Denmark
NHL.com injected a note of humor into the proceedings with a silly report from the world champs, saying this:
The U.S. finished with a record of 2-1-2-1 (W-OTW-OTL-L) and tied their worst-ever showing by placing 13th in the 16-team field, a position it last finished in 2003.
"I'm proud of our players," said U.S. and New York Islanders coach Scott Gordon. "After the tough start we had, we did a nice job coming back and winning our final three games."
After scoring only four goals in three preliminary-round games -- all losses, two in overtime -- the U.S. exploded for 16 goals to go 3-0 in the relegation round.
Dubinsky currently leads all players with 7 assists and 10 points.
Reading that would give anyone a totally false impression of how Team USA did. Um, "exploded for 16 goals"? Well, they were against France and Kazakhstan. They totally failed to score against such hockey heavyweights as Germany and Denmark... And in fact, because of the world champs format, they most emphatically did not go 3-0 in the relegation round, but 2-1-0-0. Yeah, nice job.
Then again, the other North American team isn't doing much better. Canada has lost every game in the tournament against a top-10 country; they've only beaten Italy, Latvia and Norway, while losing to Switzerland, Sweden and the Czech Republic. So, to preview the quarterfinals, we'll start with:
Russia - Canada
While Canada has been doing pretty poorly, the Russians haven't lost a game at the worlds since 2007. Given that Canada has yet to beat a top ten country at this tournament, this one should be a foregone conclusion. Despite running up the score against the likes of Norway and Italy, in their bigger games the Canadians have been unable to score. Given how easily Varlamov shut out Team Finland, there's really no way Russia should lose this.
And that's what we said at Vancouver.
Finland - Czech Republic
The Czechs have been trending upward all tournament, more or less, with a shaky start (including a regulation loss to Norway) followed by improved play, beating both Sweden and Canada while losing to the Swiss. The Finns have been mediocre throughout, losing decisively to the Danes and Russians and scratching out meagre 1-0 and 2-0 wins against Germany and Belarus. The only team Finland properly beat were the hapless Slovaks, who managed to crash out of the top eight completely.
Finland's great weaknesses are defense and scoring, or in other words, the only good thing about Finland is their goaltending. The young, inexperienced and soft Finnish defence has struggled mightily against everyone, and in the game against Russia they made a steady parade to the penalty box while being unable to stop their opponents anyway. The Czechs' penchant for counter-attacks and short-handed goals will be especially dangerous against them.
The Czechs came out surprisingly strong and physical against Canada, so expect them to do the same here, which will land the Finns in trouble. Finland's strategy is the normal one of playing a tight trap, so it's unlikely to turn into a great game. If they stick to their strengths, the Czechs should win.
Switzerland - Germany
The Germans have put together a good tournament, beating Slovakia to secure a quarterfinal spot, but I'm afraid it's the end of the road for the plucky home team. By rights, the Swiss should win this, but if the home crowd can spur the Germans on to great things, it's not impossible they'll advance. This one could really go either way.
Sweden - Denmark
As it happens, Denmark has more of a chance here than most people seem to think. Sweden has really not been impressive this year, and if Denmark can come out as strongly as they have before, they can shock the Swedes. The Swedish media is already planning the parade route for their gold medals, so their arrogance may well be their downfall. Needless to say, we hope it will.
**
The semifinals are seeded as follows:
FIN/CZE - DEN/SWE
RUS/CAN - GER/SUI
So we expect to see the Czechs take on Sweden, and Russia play Switzerland. If the Czechs can knock the Swedes into the bronze medal game, the Swiss might well secure themselves a medal. On the other hand, if Finland does manage to beat the Czechs, we'll have a quarterfinal for the ages against the Swedes. And Finland will lose.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
IHWC: Preliminary round
The weirdest preliminary round of the current format men's international hockey world championships is over. Whew!
Having said that, it's somewhat surprising that our initial prediction is spot on except for two things: Canada lost to Switzerland, and, well, Group D. The Americans lost the deciding game to Finland entirely on their own, and Denmark surprised everybody. If anyone says they saw that coming, they're lying. A couple of days before the tournament, Sweden and Denmark played a friendly match, which Denmark lost something like 12-3. Nevertheless, they beat the US and Finland.
Here's the two qualification round groups, with each team's points:
Group E
Russia (6)
Denmark (3)
Germany (3)
Slovakia (3)
Finland (3)
Belarus (0)
Group F
Switzerland (6)
Canada (3)
Sweden (3)
Czech Republic (3)
Norway (3)
Latvia (0)
And this is how they'll play out.
Group E
Russia (15)
Finland (12)
Slovakia (9)
Germany (6)
--
Denmark (6)
Belarus (0)
Russia will sweep the round, while Finland will beat both Slovakia and Belarus. Slovakia will defeat Germany and Denmark, and those two will beat Belarus. Germany and Denmark end up with 6 points each, and Germany goes through on strength of their win over Denmark in the opening round.
We think Denmark's leaky defense won't stand a chance against either Russia's or Slovakia's high-powered offense, and the Germans' game won't cut it either, although they have a better chance against Slovakia. The Slovaks are the biggest question mark of this group, and if Denmark can put together another solid game, they have an outside shot at making the playoffs.
Group F
Canada (12)
Sweden (9)
Czech Republic (9)
Switzerland (9)
--
Norway (6)
Latvia (0)
After losing to Switzerland and having Steven Stamkos taken out of the lineup, we expect the Canadians will start playing and sweep the round. Sweden will beat the Swiss and Latvians, and so will the Czechs, with Switzerland defeating Norway for the fourth spot.
This is going to be a very tight group, with three teams tied for points and ranked by goal differential. Any game going into overtime will change everything, so it's highly unlikely this will stand. It wouldn't even take a huge miracle for Norway to land a spot in the quarterfinals! Therefore, the following predictions are, at best, tentative.
Quarterfinals
Russia - Switzerland
Finland - Czech Republic
Sweden - Slovakia
Canada - Germany
Semifinals
Russia - Sweden
Canada - Finland
Medal games
Gold: Russia - Canada
Bronze: Finland - Sweden
Three of these four countries have been in the final four of every hockey world championship in this decade bar three, and two of them were represented in those as well. They're also the top four countries of the IIHF world ranking. That didn't really inform our predictions, but it's what we end up with. Also, they're the same ones we had in the medal games prior to the opening round, except we thought the Americans would be in the bronze medal game. Well, that went differently.
We still think Canada will win the tournament, but we'd like to be wrong. We didn't think the Habs would win, either, but that sure felt good too.
Having said that, it's somewhat surprising that our initial prediction is spot on except for two things: Canada lost to Switzerland, and, well, Group D. The Americans lost the deciding game to Finland entirely on their own, and Denmark surprised everybody. If anyone says they saw that coming, they're lying. A couple of days before the tournament, Sweden and Denmark played a friendly match, which Denmark lost something like 12-3. Nevertheless, they beat the US and Finland.
Here's the two qualification round groups, with each team's points:
Group E
Russia (6)
Denmark (3)
Germany (3)
Slovakia (3)
Finland (3)
Belarus (0)
Group F
Switzerland (6)
Canada (3)
Sweden (3)
Czech Republic (3)
Norway (3)
Latvia (0)
And this is how they'll play out.
Group E
Russia (15)
Finland (12)
Slovakia (9)
Germany (6)
--
Denmark (6)
Belarus (0)
Russia will sweep the round, while Finland will beat both Slovakia and Belarus. Slovakia will defeat Germany and Denmark, and those two will beat Belarus. Germany and Denmark end up with 6 points each, and Germany goes through on strength of their win over Denmark in the opening round.
We think Denmark's leaky defense won't stand a chance against either Russia's or Slovakia's high-powered offense, and the Germans' game won't cut it either, although they have a better chance against Slovakia. The Slovaks are the biggest question mark of this group, and if Denmark can put together another solid game, they have an outside shot at making the playoffs.
Group F
Canada (12)
Sweden (9)
Czech Republic (9)
Switzerland (9)
--
Norway (6)
Latvia (0)
After losing to Switzerland and having Steven Stamkos taken out of the lineup, we expect the Canadians will start playing and sweep the round. Sweden will beat the Swiss and Latvians, and so will the Czechs, with Switzerland defeating Norway for the fourth spot.
This is going to be a very tight group, with three teams tied for points and ranked by goal differential. Any game going into overtime will change everything, so it's highly unlikely this will stand. It wouldn't even take a huge miracle for Norway to land a spot in the quarterfinals! Therefore, the following predictions are, at best, tentative.
Quarterfinals
Russia - Switzerland
Finland - Czech Republic
Sweden - Slovakia
Canada - Germany
Semifinals
Russia - Sweden
Canada - Finland
Medal games
Gold: Russia - Canada
Bronze: Finland - Sweden
Three of these four countries have been in the final four of every hockey world championship in this decade bar three, and two of them were represented in those as well. They're also the top four countries of the IIHF world ranking. That didn't really inform our predictions, but it's what we end up with. Also, they're the same ones we had in the medal games prior to the opening round, except we thought the Americans would be in the bronze medal game. Well, that went differently.
We still think Canada will win the tournament, but we'd like to be wrong. We didn't think the Habs would win, either, but that sure felt good too.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Ice hockey world championships preview
It feels like a bit of a letdown to have another major hockey tournament so soon after the Olympics, but the IIHF and the tournament organizers always make a profit, so as long as it's money that makes the world go 'round, we'll have the world champs every year. Here's our brief preview, starting with the teams by current world ranking.
Canada: Canada has a fair NHL-level team, featuring the co-winner of the Rocket Richard trophy and the best defense in the games. It would be astonishing if they didn't do well, but every now and then, they do find a way.
Russia: The best offense in the game, including Ovechkin and Kovalchuk, to drop a few names, backed by solid goaltending in Varlamov. The thing is, you'd think the Russians will want to win this to make up for humiliating themselves completely at the Olympics. Then again, we thought they'd want to win that, too. They might power through to their third consecutive world championship gold medal, or crash out in the quarterfinals. We just don't know.
Finland: We have no D. The team has six offensive defensemen who are total liabilities in our own end, and two stay-at-home D, one of whom is the appalling Lasse Kukkonen. The goaltending is top-notch for a tournament like this, but Pekka Rinne has his work cut out for him. Even Miikka Kiprusoff struggled behind the similarly inept Finnish defence at the Olympics.
Sweden: If Finland has no D, Sweden has no team. 26 players have refused to turn up for the games, according to Aftonbladet's count. Of course, some of them are busy. All other things being equal, that means this is effectively the Swedish "B team". As of this writing, Sweden has yet to announce their team, probably because they're ashamed to. They managed to lose the Euro Hockey Tour with this lot. We confidently expect them to suck.
USA: That Olympic silver medal was no fluke: the US has a great new generation of hockey players coming up. This should be a young, hungry team, and Scott Clemmensen is the best goalie at the games. We expect them to come home with a medal.
Czech Republic: Over the last few years, the Czechs have looked old, tired and confused. They put in a fairly dismal performance on the Euro Hockey Tour. Vokoun is an excellent goalie, but him and Jaromir Jagr notwithstanding, the team doesn't look very convincing. They barely managed to squeeze past Latvia in the Olympic "eighth-finals", and Finland beat them 2-0 in the quarterfinals because they were totally rubbish. We expect a similar finish here.
Slovakia: On the face of it, the only thing the Slovak team is good for is funny names: Richard Panik, Michal Macho and Roman Kukumberg. Then again, their Olympic team wasn't that much more convincing, and they made the bronze medal game. We reckon quarterfinal elimination (see below).
Switzerland: Incredibly enough, this is not Ralph Krüger's Switzerland. They have a new head coach! Under Krüger, Switzerland played an admirably solid brand of hockey for years, finishing a respectable eighth at the Olympics. We'll see what the new head coach does, but we're looking forward to seeing Switzerland do well again. There's no word on the final lineup yet, but we're hoping Switzerland's hero from the U20 tournament, Nino Niederreiter, shows up. Switzerland's decisive games are against the Czechs and Swedes in the qualification round; if they can beat one of both, they even have a shot at the semifinals.
The rest:
We expect a typical performance from both Belarus and Latvia: give some of the bigger countries a surprisingly hard time, but finish just outside the quarterfinals. Norway put up an excellent show at the Olympics, so we think they'll do well and avoid the relegation series altogether.
Germany have really struggled at the world championships over the last decade, but the Olympics looked like a return to form of sorts. They're playing in front of the home crowd, which may either spur them on to great things or make them so nervous they just fail. They have a shot at upsetting Slovakia and making the quarterfinals, but I'm afraid that's as far as they can hope to get.
I'm a big fan of Denmark, but being blasted 10-3 by a rubbish Swedish team before the games doesn't bode well for the plucky Danes. They'll end up in the relegation round unless they pull off a major upset, but they ought to do well there.
Sadly, this is the end of the championship road for Italy and France this time, although France has played surprisingly well. The most interesting struggle in the relegation round will be whether France of Kazakhstan is eliminated, and I'm afraid it's going to be France.
**
The tournament:
Here are the groups:
Group A:
Russia
Belarus
Slovakia
Kazakhstan
Group B:
Canada
Switzerland
Latvia
Italy
Group C:
Sweden
Czech Republic
Norway
France
Group D:
Finland
USA
Germany
Denmark
The worst team from each group will head to the relegation series, where two teams will be eliminated. Next year, Austria and Slovenia return to the championships to replace them. Groups A and D will form Group E, and B and C Group F; the four best teams from each will face each other in the quarterfinals.
To make a potentially tortuously long preview short, here's how it'll go:
Preliminary round:
Group A:
Russia
Slovakia
Belarus
--
Kazakhstan
Group B:
Canada
Switzerland
Latvia
--
Italy
Group C:
Sweden
Czech Republic
Norway
--
France
Group D:
USA
Finland
Germany
--
Denmark
Relegation round:
Kazakhstan
Italy
France
Denmark
Italy and France eliminated. Upset potential: France defeats Kazakhstan.
Group E:
Russia
USA
Finland
Slovakia
--
Germany
Belarus
Upset potential: Germany makes the quarterfinals.
Group F:
Canada
Czech Republic
Sweden
Switzerland
--
Norway
Latvia
Upset potential: Switzerland might well beat either the Swedes or Czechs. At worst, Sweden has an outside chance of missing the quarterfinals altogether, although that's very unlikely.
Quarterfinals:
Canada-Slovakia
Czech Republic-Finland
USA-Sweden
Russia-Switzerland
Upset potential: The Americans or Finns may drop their game.
Semifinals:
Russia-USA
Canada-Finland
Upset potential: If either Canada or Russia are going to fail somewhere, this is the most likely spot.
Medal games:
Canada-Russia
USA-Finland
Final ranking:
1. Canada
2. Russia
3. USA
4. Finland
Boringly predictable? Yes. But you'd be crazy to put your money on anything else.
Canada: Canada has a fair NHL-level team, featuring the co-winner of the Rocket Richard trophy and the best defense in the games. It would be astonishing if they didn't do well, but every now and then, they do find a way.
Russia: The best offense in the game, including Ovechkin and Kovalchuk, to drop a few names, backed by solid goaltending in Varlamov. The thing is, you'd think the Russians will want to win this to make up for humiliating themselves completely at the Olympics. Then again, we thought they'd want to win that, too. They might power through to their third consecutive world championship gold medal, or crash out in the quarterfinals. We just don't know.
Finland: We have no D. The team has six offensive defensemen who are total liabilities in our own end, and two stay-at-home D, one of whom is the appalling Lasse Kukkonen. The goaltending is top-notch for a tournament like this, but Pekka Rinne has his work cut out for him. Even Miikka Kiprusoff struggled behind the similarly inept Finnish defence at the Olympics.
Sweden: If Finland has no D, Sweden has no team. 26 players have refused to turn up for the games, according to Aftonbladet's count. Of course, some of them are busy. All other things being equal, that means this is effectively the Swedish "B team". As of this writing, Sweden has yet to announce their team, probably because they're ashamed to. They managed to lose the Euro Hockey Tour with this lot. We confidently expect them to suck.
USA: That Olympic silver medal was no fluke: the US has a great new generation of hockey players coming up. This should be a young, hungry team, and Scott Clemmensen is the best goalie at the games. We expect them to come home with a medal.
Czech Republic: Over the last few years, the Czechs have looked old, tired and confused. They put in a fairly dismal performance on the Euro Hockey Tour. Vokoun is an excellent goalie, but him and Jaromir Jagr notwithstanding, the team doesn't look very convincing. They barely managed to squeeze past Latvia in the Olympic "eighth-finals", and Finland beat them 2-0 in the quarterfinals because they were totally rubbish. We expect a similar finish here.
Slovakia: On the face of it, the only thing the Slovak team is good for is funny names: Richard Panik, Michal Macho and Roman Kukumberg. Then again, their Olympic team wasn't that much more convincing, and they made the bronze medal game. We reckon quarterfinal elimination (see below).
Switzerland: Incredibly enough, this is not Ralph Krüger's Switzerland. They have a new head coach! Under Krüger, Switzerland played an admirably solid brand of hockey for years, finishing a respectable eighth at the Olympics. We'll see what the new head coach does, but we're looking forward to seeing Switzerland do well again. There's no word on the final lineup yet, but we're hoping Switzerland's hero from the U20 tournament, Nino Niederreiter, shows up. Switzerland's decisive games are against the Czechs and Swedes in the qualification round; if they can beat one of both, they even have a shot at the semifinals.
The rest:
We expect a typical performance from both Belarus and Latvia: give some of the bigger countries a surprisingly hard time, but finish just outside the quarterfinals. Norway put up an excellent show at the Olympics, so we think they'll do well and avoid the relegation series altogether.
Germany have really struggled at the world championships over the last decade, but the Olympics looked like a return to form of sorts. They're playing in front of the home crowd, which may either spur them on to great things or make them so nervous they just fail. They have a shot at upsetting Slovakia and making the quarterfinals, but I'm afraid that's as far as they can hope to get.
I'm a big fan of Denmark, but being blasted 10-3 by a rubbish Swedish team before the games doesn't bode well for the plucky Danes. They'll end up in the relegation round unless they pull off a major upset, but they ought to do well there.
Sadly, this is the end of the championship road for Italy and France this time, although France has played surprisingly well. The most interesting struggle in the relegation round will be whether France of Kazakhstan is eliminated, and I'm afraid it's going to be France.
**
The tournament:
Here are the groups:
Group A:
Russia
Belarus
Slovakia
Kazakhstan
Group B:
Canada
Switzerland
Latvia
Italy
Group C:
Sweden
Czech Republic
Norway
France
Group D:
Finland
USA
Germany
Denmark
The worst team from each group will head to the relegation series, where two teams will be eliminated. Next year, Austria and Slovenia return to the championships to replace them. Groups A and D will form Group E, and B and C Group F; the four best teams from each will face each other in the quarterfinals.
To make a potentially tortuously long preview short, here's how it'll go:
Preliminary round:
Group A:
Russia
Slovakia
Belarus
--
Kazakhstan
Group B:
Canada
Switzerland
Latvia
--
Italy
Group C:
Sweden
Czech Republic
Norway
--
France
Group D:
USA
Finland
Germany
--
Denmark
Relegation round:
Kazakhstan
Italy
France
Denmark
Italy and France eliminated. Upset potential: France defeats Kazakhstan.
Group E:
Russia
USA
Finland
Slovakia
--
Germany
Belarus
Upset potential: Germany makes the quarterfinals.
Group F:
Canada
Czech Republic
Sweden
Switzerland
--
Norway
Latvia
Upset potential: Switzerland might well beat either the Swedes or Czechs. At worst, Sweden has an outside chance of missing the quarterfinals altogether, although that's very unlikely.
Quarterfinals:
Canada-Slovakia
Czech Republic-Finland
USA-Sweden
Russia-Switzerland
Upset potential: The Americans or Finns may drop their game.
Semifinals:
Russia-USA
Canada-Finland
Upset potential: If either Canada or Russia are going to fail somewhere, this is the most likely spot.
Medal games:
Canada-Russia
USA-Finland
Final ranking:
1. Canada
2. Russia
3. USA
4. Finland
Boringly predictable? Yes. But you'd be crazy to put your money on anything else.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
2010 playoffs: second round preview
The second round kicks off tonight with Game 1 of the Detroit - San Jose series, so we'll start with the West.
San Jose - Detroit
In all honesty, we expected San Jose to lose to Colorado already, so to make a long story short, Detroit in six. Granted, Phoenix took Detroit to Game 7, but in that game Detroit's big players stepped up. By contrast, while San Jose's "big three" were Team Canada's best line at the Olympics, they're notorious playoff underperformers. San Jose has pretty much taken over Detroit's old gimmick of winning the conference in the regular season and crashing out of the playoffs in the first rounds, so now's their chance. Detroit has more playoff experience, better individual players playing a better system, and better coaching.
Vancouver - Chicago
This blog firmly supports the Chicago Blackhawks for the Stanley Cup, if only because if they manage to win, then Toronto becomes the team with the longest time elapsed since last winning the Cup. We'd also love to see Marian Hossa make history by appearing in three consecutive Stanley Cup finals with a different team every time, and finally win it. That said, we have to reluctantly say the Canucks are going to win this one. It might well go to seven games, but we'll say Vancouver in six. The real question marks are, on the one hand, Luongo and the Canucks defense, and on the other hand, Chicago's youth. They had a good run last year, though, so it's entirely possible the Hawks will win this.
The trouble with handicapping the West is that because of the time difference, we rarely see many western games. For example, today's Wings-Sharks game is on at 4 a.m. local time. Watching them is a bit of a challenge, so our views on the West are most likely to be far less sound than those on the East.
Then again, we're frankly relieved that an illness that struck down 75% of this blog's contributors prevented us from embarrassing ourselves with the first round in the East. We would most likely have gone 1-3. That was a very, very silly first round.
Pittsburgh - Montréal
Question: Can the Habs pull off a second upset?
Answer: No.
Boston - Philadelphia
Who could have guessed we'd even see this series? Despite the brusque treatment I just gave the Habs, huge kudos to both the Habs and the Flyers for coming up big in the playoffs after a questionable regular season. Unfortunately, both of our NHL TV providers refused to show anything but the Caps and Pens, so quite frankly, we didn't see a single game of either the B's or the Flyers' series. I admit that the TV focus on S I D N E Y C R O S B Y pisses me off for this reason as well. Because of it, we don't know how Boston, the worst offensive team in the regular season, managed to get past Ryan Miller, or what the heck happened to the Devils, who I expected to see in the conference final against the Caps. So, working on the basis of the regular season, we have to say the Flyers in six. Bearing in mind that the Flyers' major weakness ever since the lockout has been team defense, it's not impossible that Boston will get their scoring going and power through. Any way you look at it, the fact that one of these teams is going to be in the conference final would have seemed incredible just a couple of weeks ago.
**
Speaking of team defense and the Caps, well, there it is, really. A lot of virtual ink was spilt (sent? posted? wired? transfer protocolled?) over the Capitals' goaltending before the playoffs started, but I keep insisting that with the Caps and the Flyers, the problem is not in goal. Yes, the Flyers have gone through something like 50 bargain-basement goaltenders since the lockout, and managed to give up the best guy they had for nothing to free agency. You'll find him in the previous post on this blog, if you're confused. Similarly, while Varlamov was great last year, Theodore had a catastrophic start this year and Varlamov wasn't that much better.
However, neither of the last two teams to win the Cup had anyone decisively better between the pipes. Fleury isn't nearly as good as the Canadians make him out to be; the simple fact that his team has to win playoff games against Ottawa 7-4 says enough. Also, I defy anyone to seriously argue that Chris Osgood was ever even one of the five best goaltenders in the Western Conference. I haven't got the issue right now because of logistical problems we're having, but Detroit's general manager explained their philosophy very simply after they won the Cup: "we don't spend money in goal." Team defense is much more important than goaltending, and it's defense that's letting both the Flyers and the Caps down.
With Washington, the problem is easier to address. If they hadn't made that idiotic giant deal with Michael Nylander, they could invest in a solid blueliner or two, and be ready to make a real run for the Cup. The fact that they made it to the conference finals last year and were only eliminated with considerable help from the referees is testament to the sheer ability of their forwards and offensive D, but it's the back end that's letting them down. In the Flyers' case, the problem is slightly stranger. Ever since the lockout, it's seemed that no matter who they have on the blueline, their defense plays terribly. The problem has survived several changes of personnel both on the bench and behind it, so it's really hard to understand what causes it, but it persists nonetheless. Having just said that the Flyers will win their series against the Bruins, this is what could come back to bite them.
I titled my previous hockey post "He ain't all that", referring to Cindy, erm, Sidney Crosby. Overall the first round series against the Sens is a good indicator. Yes, he had 14 points in 6 games. One of the 6 goals was a gamewinner, and in the decisive sixth game of the series, Crosby had no points and was a -2. Even nhl.com had to admit he was rubbish, but they inexplicably maintained that Malkin was even worse. Malkin had a power play assist, and despite having more even-strength ice time than Crosby, he was +0. In that game, the Pens were behind 3-0 at one point. Who started the comeback? Matt Cooke. The anointed messiah of hockey was nowhere to be found.
Even though I maintain the Pens are given special treatment by the league, there's no question they're a good team. Ever since the NHL selected Crosby as its "face", the media has focused on him to a ridiculous extent. Even in the nhl.com recap of Game 6, in which Crosby did nothing, he's the first player who gets quoted. Ever since he was made captain, the media can give him credit for everything the Pens do, because it's all supposedly due to his "leadership". When we know that he's a kid barely in his twenties with a monstrous ego problem, this seems more than a bit unlikely. But intanglibles aside, it's enough to look at any of the big games the Pens play. Quite simply, who scores big goals for the Pens? The third and fourth line. The people who decide big games for the Pens are the likes of Matt Cooke and Pascal Dupuis.
All the sound and fury about Cindy manage to obscure the fact that what lifts the Penguins above many other teams in the league isn't Cindy or even Malkin, but their third and fourth lines. In big games, it isn't Crosby or Malkin who step up to score big goals, but the third and fourth liners. The only big goal Crosby's ever scored was at the Olympics, and quite frankly, there's no way that shot should have gotten past Miller. Crosby is an egoist, pure and simple. He does ridiculous stuff like his stunts in the Pens' last regular season game against the Islanders; CBC showed him skating two complete circles around the Isles' zone on the power play, desperately looking for a scoring chance to win the Rocket. His scoring mostly comes in bunches, especially when his team is running up the score. I thought that game against the Isles was despicable. But whatever you think of Crosby, I maintain it's a fact that the constant focus on him leaves the guys who actually put in the hard work and score the game-winning goals in the playoffs in the shadows. And that's just fine with the superstar.
The funny thing is that I'm basically reiterating a very Canadian hockey ethic here. Running up the score, putting yourself before the team and not giving credit to the muckers and grinders is exactly what Canadian "old time hockey" fans accuse "Europeans" of. Yet when Cindy does all these things, they idolize him. There's a fantastic double standard in Canadian hockey culture when it comes to their superstars, and Crosby is the ultimate example.
San Jose - Detroit
In all honesty, we expected San Jose to lose to Colorado already, so to make a long story short, Detroit in six. Granted, Phoenix took Detroit to Game 7, but in that game Detroit's big players stepped up. By contrast, while San Jose's "big three" were Team Canada's best line at the Olympics, they're notorious playoff underperformers. San Jose has pretty much taken over Detroit's old gimmick of winning the conference in the regular season and crashing out of the playoffs in the first rounds, so now's their chance. Detroit has more playoff experience, better individual players playing a better system, and better coaching.
Vancouver - Chicago
This blog firmly supports the Chicago Blackhawks for the Stanley Cup, if only because if they manage to win, then Toronto becomes the team with the longest time elapsed since last winning the Cup. We'd also love to see Marian Hossa make history by appearing in three consecutive Stanley Cup finals with a different team every time, and finally win it. That said, we have to reluctantly say the Canucks are going to win this one. It might well go to seven games, but we'll say Vancouver in six. The real question marks are, on the one hand, Luongo and the Canucks defense, and on the other hand, Chicago's youth. They had a good run last year, though, so it's entirely possible the Hawks will win this.
The trouble with handicapping the West is that because of the time difference, we rarely see many western games. For example, today's Wings-Sharks game is on at 4 a.m. local time. Watching them is a bit of a challenge, so our views on the West are most likely to be far less sound than those on the East.
Then again, we're frankly relieved that an illness that struck down 75% of this blog's contributors prevented us from embarrassing ourselves with the first round in the East. We would most likely have gone 1-3. That was a very, very silly first round.
Pittsburgh - Montréal
Question: Can the Habs pull off a second upset?
Answer: No.
Boston - Philadelphia
Who could have guessed we'd even see this series? Despite the brusque treatment I just gave the Habs, huge kudos to both the Habs and the Flyers for coming up big in the playoffs after a questionable regular season. Unfortunately, both of our NHL TV providers refused to show anything but the Caps and Pens, so quite frankly, we didn't see a single game of either the B's or the Flyers' series. I admit that the TV focus on S I D N E Y C R O S B Y pisses me off for this reason as well. Because of it, we don't know how Boston, the worst offensive team in the regular season, managed to get past Ryan Miller, or what the heck happened to the Devils, who I expected to see in the conference final against the Caps. So, working on the basis of the regular season, we have to say the Flyers in six. Bearing in mind that the Flyers' major weakness ever since the lockout has been team defense, it's not impossible that Boston will get their scoring going and power through. Any way you look at it, the fact that one of these teams is going to be in the conference final would have seemed incredible just a couple of weeks ago.
**
Speaking of team defense and the Caps, well, there it is, really. A lot of virtual ink was spilt (sent? posted? wired? transfer protocolled?) over the Capitals' goaltending before the playoffs started, but I keep insisting that with the Caps and the Flyers, the problem is not in goal. Yes, the Flyers have gone through something like 50 bargain-basement goaltenders since the lockout, and managed to give up the best guy they had for nothing to free agency. You'll find him in the previous post on this blog, if you're confused. Similarly, while Varlamov was great last year, Theodore had a catastrophic start this year and Varlamov wasn't that much better.
However, neither of the last two teams to win the Cup had anyone decisively better between the pipes. Fleury isn't nearly as good as the Canadians make him out to be; the simple fact that his team has to win playoff games against Ottawa 7-4 says enough. Also, I defy anyone to seriously argue that Chris Osgood was ever even one of the five best goaltenders in the Western Conference. I haven't got the issue right now because of logistical problems we're having, but Detroit's general manager explained their philosophy very simply after they won the Cup: "we don't spend money in goal." Team defense is much more important than goaltending, and it's defense that's letting both the Flyers and the Caps down.
With Washington, the problem is easier to address. If they hadn't made that idiotic giant deal with Michael Nylander, they could invest in a solid blueliner or two, and be ready to make a real run for the Cup. The fact that they made it to the conference finals last year and were only eliminated with considerable help from the referees is testament to the sheer ability of their forwards and offensive D, but it's the back end that's letting them down. In the Flyers' case, the problem is slightly stranger. Ever since the lockout, it's seemed that no matter who they have on the blueline, their defense plays terribly. The problem has survived several changes of personnel both on the bench and behind it, so it's really hard to understand what causes it, but it persists nonetheless. Having just said that the Flyers will win their series against the Bruins, this is what could come back to bite them.
I titled my previous hockey post "He ain't all that", referring to Cindy, erm, Sidney Crosby. Overall the first round series against the Sens is a good indicator. Yes, he had 14 points in 6 games. One of the 6 goals was a gamewinner, and in the decisive sixth game of the series, Crosby had no points and was a -2. Even nhl.com had to admit he was rubbish, but they inexplicably maintained that Malkin was even worse. Malkin had a power play assist, and despite having more even-strength ice time than Crosby, he was +0. In that game, the Pens were behind 3-0 at one point. Who started the comeback? Matt Cooke. The anointed messiah of hockey was nowhere to be found.
Even though I maintain the Pens are given special treatment by the league, there's no question they're a good team. Ever since the NHL selected Crosby as its "face", the media has focused on him to a ridiculous extent. Even in the nhl.com recap of Game 6, in which Crosby did nothing, he's the first player who gets quoted. Ever since he was made captain, the media can give him credit for everything the Pens do, because it's all supposedly due to his "leadership". When we know that he's a kid barely in his twenties with a monstrous ego problem, this seems more than a bit unlikely. But intanglibles aside, it's enough to look at any of the big games the Pens play. Quite simply, who scores big goals for the Pens? The third and fourth line. The people who decide big games for the Pens are the likes of Matt Cooke and Pascal Dupuis.
All the sound and fury about Cindy manage to obscure the fact that what lifts the Penguins above many other teams in the league isn't Cindy or even Malkin, but their third and fourth lines. In big games, it isn't Crosby or Malkin who step up to score big goals, but the third and fourth liners. The only big goal Crosby's ever scored was at the Olympics, and quite frankly, there's no way that shot should have gotten past Miller. Crosby is an egoist, pure and simple. He does ridiculous stuff like his stunts in the Pens' last regular season game against the Islanders; CBC showed him skating two complete circles around the Isles' zone on the power play, desperately looking for a scoring chance to win the Rocket. His scoring mostly comes in bunches, especially when his team is running up the score. I thought that game against the Isles was despicable. But whatever you think of Crosby, I maintain it's a fact that the constant focus on him leaves the guys who actually put in the hard work and score the game-winning goals in the playoffs in the shadows. And that's just fine with the superstar.
The funny thing is that I'm basically reiterating a very Canadian hockey ethic here. Running up the score, putting yourself before the team and not giving credit to the muckers and grinders is exactly what Canadian "old time hockey" fans accuse "Europeans" of. Yet when Cindy does all these things, they idolize him. There's a fantastic double standard in Canadian hockey culture when it comes to their superstars, and Crosby is the ultimate example.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Vancouver, semifinals
So, we got the elimination games right, but the quarterfinals gave us a few surprises. Both of our mistakes, we believe, were down to not guessing that the teams in question were done in the tournament before the games started.
A lot of ink has been spilled, and a lot of commentators, not least of whom is Finland's own irritatingly clueless Niki Juusela, have gushed hysterically over how wonderfully Canada played against Russia. We didn't really see that at all; what we saw was a Russian team that didn't seem to be one bit interested in playing. That game wasn't Canada being great, or even particularly good; it was Russia being worse than they've ever been under Bykov. It was astonishing to watch them "play". Our prediction was based on the idea that the Russians wanted to win this tournament. Turns out we were wrong!
As a side note, had the referees actually called penalties for, say, boarding and checking from behind, Canada would have spent the entire first period in the box. In the very first shift, Maxim Afinogenov got run into the boards from behind. No penalty was called, and that was the line throughout. We'd really like to see an international hockey tournament that had any consistent refereeing at all.
The same goes for Sweden. We thought they'd run out of steam in the semis and end up in the bronze game, but they already ran out in the quarterfinals. We don't want to take anything away from Slovakia, who played an excellent game, but really, Sweden didn't even look like they particularly wanted to win.
**
With our quarterfinal record at a dismal 50%, it's time to take some semifinal guesses.
We believe USA-Finland is a very simple equation. Finland was shut out by Sweden and only managed one garbage goal against the Czechs. A large reason for this is head coach Jukka Jalonen's moronic insistence on playing the Saku Koivu - Teemu Selänne - Olli Jokinen power play combination, which has been totally unable to even set up scoring chances in the last two games. In spite of this, every time Finland got a power play against the Czechs, Jalonen put the same crew on the ice, and they continued to, frankly, suck.
We anticipate Jalonen will do the same, effectively scuppering Finland's minuscule chances to score. Unless he has a change of heart, or the Finnish team decides to show up again like they did in the first two games, Miller will shut Finland out. Whatever the exact score, though, Finland will end up in the bronze medal game.
As for the other game, we'd be mad not to bet on Canada. The only real chance Slovakia has is that the Canadians may get ahead of themselves and get their head in the final game while they should still be playing the Slovaks. So while there's a chance for a Slovak upset, we have to say Canada.
A lot of ink has been spilled, and a lot of commentators, not least of whom is Finland's own irritatingly clueless Niki Juusela, have gushed hysterically over how wonderfully Canada played against Russia. We didn't really see that at all; what we saw was a Russian team that didn't seem to be one bit interested in playing. That game wasn't Canada being great, or even particularly good; it was Russia being worse than they've ever been under Bykov. It was astonishing to watch them "play". Our prediction was based on the idea that the Russians wanted to win this tournament. Turns out we were wrong!
As a side note, had the referees actually called penalties for, say, boarding and checking from behind, Canada would have spent the entire first period in the box. In the very first shift, Maxim Afinogenov got run into the boards from behind. No penalty was called, and that was the line throughout. We'd really like to see an international hockey tournament that had any consistent refereeing at all.
The same goes for Sweden. We thought they'd run out of steam in the semis and end up in the bronze game, but they already ran out in the quarterfinals. We don't want to take anything away from Slovakia, who played an excellent game, but really, Sweden didn't even look like they particularly wanted to win.
**
With our quarterfinal record at a dismal 50%, it's time to take some semifinal guesses.
We believe USA-Finland is a very simple equation. Finland was shut out by Sweden and only managed one garbage goal against the Czechs. A large reason for this is head coach Jukka Jalonen's moronic insistence on playing the Saku Koivu - Teemu Selänne - Olli Jokinen power play combination, which has been totally unable to even set up scoring chances in the last two games. In spite of this, every time Finland got a power play against the Czechs, Jalonen put the same crew on the ice, and they continued to, frankly, suck.
We anticipate Jalonen will do the same, effectively scuppering Finland's minuscule chances to score. Unless he has a change of heart, or the Finnish team decides to show up again like they did in the first two games, Miller will shut Finland out. Whatever the exact score, though, Finland will end up in the bronze medal game.
As for the other game, we'd be mad not to bet on Canada. The only real chance Slovakia has is that the Canadians may get ahead of themselves and get their head in the final game while they should still be playing the Slovaks. So while there's a chance for a Slovak upset, we have to say Canada.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Vancouver: Day five and onward
This is the last post of the initial round! First we'll run through Day 5, then talk about the big games on Day 6 and see how the elimination games and quarterfinals work out.
Day 5
NOR - SUI
We said: 4-1 Switzerland.
The score: 5-4 OT Switzerland. Miss. Wow. A heck of a game, with Norway nearly taking advantage of an unexpected collapse by Switzerland.
LAT - SVK
We said: 6-2 to Slovakia.
The score: 6-0 Slovakia. Miss, but given our poor record of late, it's hearteningly close. With this game, Latvia loses the initial round. Strangely, the only team to shut Latvia out in this group was the one that had the weakest defense.
GER - BLR
We said: 4-1 Germany.
The score: 5-3 Belarus. Miss. If Switzerland struggled against Norway, Germany just plain failed. The Belarusians finally broke out their offensive skills and took the Germans somewhat by surprise, and Germany, shut out in both of its previous games, really struggled to score. We expected both Germany and Switzerland to zero in on these games as their most crucial tests in the tournament, but both were surprisingly shaky. The Germans were unable to transition from their tight defensive game to a more aggressive brand of hockey, and paid for it here.
Our record: 1-3-11; in winners and losers, 12-3.
**
And now, the big day!
Day 6
Finnish state TV is calling this "Super Sunday", and it's not so far off. Today the initial groups end and the elimination games are seeded. Also, there's some great hockey with all the proper countries facing each other.
RUS - CZE
Some excellent hockey! Highlights included a flashback to the Torino Olympics when Jagr was skating around with his head down again, and this time Ovechkin cleaned his clock to set up Russia's 3-1 goal.
We said: the Russians will take this in regulation at 5-2.
The score: 4-2 Russia. After days in a row of complete misses, finally we're close.
That completes Group B. We predicted the following group table:
Russia, 9
Slovakia, 6
Czech Republic, 3
Latvia, 0
Actually, this is how it ended up:
Russia, 7 points
Czech Republic, 6
Slovakia, 5
Latvia, 0
So apart from the Czechs and Slovaks changing places, this went pretty much like we thought.
CAN - USA
Canada controlled the game most of the time, but USA capitalized on its opportunities better, and Miller was stellar.
We said: while it's going to be a hard-fought one, we think Canada will take this one 4-3 to emerge as group winner.
The score: 5-3 USA. Miss. We really expected Team Canada to be better.
We predicted:
Canada, 9 points
USA, 6
Switzerland, 3
Norway, 0
The actual table:
USA, 9
Canada, 5
Switzerland, 3
Norway, 1
SWE - FIN
Worst game of the tournament, both for Team Finland and generally. Hopefully Finland can bounce back to next one.
We said: Finland will beat Sweden, and the Finnish press will start planning the parade route. Finland takes it 5-2.
The score: 3-0 Sweden. Miss.
Our predicted standings:
Finland, 9 points
Sweden, 6
Germany, 3
Belarus, 0
And the final outcome:
Sweden, 9 points
Finland, 6
Belarus, 3
Germany, 0
Our boys let us down, but otherwise the group went like we thought.
Our record for days five and six is one close and five misses. We aren't doing that good.
Our overall record stand at: 1-4-13; in winners and losers, 13-5.
**
Elimination games:
We thought they would be:
SWE-NOR, SWE
SVK-LAT, SVK
CZE-BLR, CZE
SUI-GER, SUI
Apart from Sweden going straight to quarterfinals and Canada not, we got the teams right, but not the seeding order. If somebody figured Canada would go to elimination games, more power to ya.
Actual elimination match-ups are:
CZE - LAT
CAN - GER
SVK - NOR
SUI - BLR
**
Our scenario is now in tatters; the final we and the rest of the hockey world predicted will not take place. So here's our revised scenario for the rest of the games!
Elimination games:
CZE - LAT
CAN - GER
SVK - NOR
SUI - BLR
We predict the team with home advantage will win each game, though Switzerland and Belarus might well take it to overtime. Obviously we're hoping Canada will stun the hockey world by getting eliminated here, but we aren't going to put any money on Germany. We won't be putting money on Canada either, with the odds our governmet betting agency is giving, offering 1.01 times your bet.
Quarterfinals, as per our prediction:
USA - SUI
SWE - SVK
RUS - CAN
FIN - CZE
USA will win their game against Switzerland, but the other ones are tough to call. Any one of the six teams can win their game.
Slovakia is a mystery to us: they lose to the Czechs but defeat Russia. Overall they haven't impressed us, but neither has Sweden. They have excellent goaltending, though: Halak and Lundqvist have been the top two goalies of the tournament so far. We think Slovakia is the worse team, and they take too much penalties. Slovakia's only chance is that the gold-laden Swedish team is not hungry enough. They looked lackluster even when beating Finland 3-0. Still, we predict Sweden will win.
The most anticipated match-up of the tournament will not take place in the finals, but in the quarterfinals. One of the two teams thought most likely to take gold will go home without a medal. We think both teams have played poorly so far. Russia looked alright in their opening game, stumbled against Slovakia, but recovered in their last game against the Czechs. Canada had trouble getting started against Norway, barely defeated Switzerland, and lost to USA. Russians seem to be improving their game, which Canada has so far failed to do. Having to play Germany won't help with that. Canada has the most pressure, and their game hasn't been very good. Unless they can make it all come together, they will lose. We predict Russia wins, hopefully by a goal by Ilya Kovalchuk.
Finland versus the Czech Republic is Finland's game to win or lose. If the team that played against Germany and Belarus shows up, Finland wins. If the joke of a team that lost to Sweden turns up, they would lose to Latvia, let alone the Czechs. We feel really bad about Finland after the last game, but we think they should be able to win this game. We predict Finland wins.
Semifinals:
USA - FIN
SWE - RUS
Much as we wish it were otherwise, we believe we'll see USA - Russia final with Sweden and Finland competing for the bronze. We think Finland will want the bronze more and win the game, and we stand by our original prediction that Russia will take gold.
Day 5
NOR - SUI
We said: 4-1 Switzerland.
The score: 5-4 OT Switzerland. Miss. Wow. A heck of a game, with Norway nearly taking advantage of an unexpected collapse by Switzerland.
LAT - SVK
We said: 6-2 to Slovakia.
The score: 6-0 Slovakia. Miss, but given our poor record of late, it's hearteningly close. With this game, Latvia loses the initial round. Strangely, the only team to shut Latvia out in this group was the one that had the weakest defense.
GER - BLR
We said: 4-1 Germany.
The score: 5-3 Belarus. Miss. If Switzerland struggled against Norway, Germany just plain failed. The Belarusians finally broke out their offensive skills and took the Germans somewhat by surprise, and Germany, shut out in both of its previous games, really struggled to score. We expected both Germany and Switzerland to zero in on these games as their most crucial tests in the tournament, but both were surprisingly shaky. The Germans were unable to transition from their tight defensive game to a more aggressive brand of hockey, and paid for it here.
Our record: 1-3-11; in winners and losers, 12-3.
**
And now, the big day!
Day 6
Finnish state TV is calling this "Super Sunday", and it's not so far off. Today the initial groups end and the elimination games are seeded. Also, there's some great hockey with all the proper countries facing each other.
RUS - CZE
Some excellent hockey! Highlights included a flashback to the Torino Olympics when Jagr was skating around with his head down again, and this time Ovechkin cleaned his clock to set up Russia's 3-1 goal.
We said: the Russians will take this in regulation at 5-2.
The score: 4-2 Russia. After days in a row of complete misses, finally we're close.
That completes Group B. We predicted the following group table:
Russia, 9
Slovakia, 6
Czech Republic, 3
Latvia, 0
Actually, this is how it ended up:
Russia, 7 points
Czech Republic, 6
Slovakia, 5
Latvia, 0
So apart from the Czechs and Slovaks changing places, this went pretty much like we thought.
CAN - USA
Canada controlled the game most of the time, but USA capitalized on its opportunities better, and Miller was stellar.
We said: while it's going to be a hard-fought one, we think Canada will take this one 4-3 to emerge as group winner.
The score: 5-3 USA. Miss. We really expected Team Canada to be better.
We predicted:
Canada, 9 points
USA, 6
Switzerland, 3
Norway, 0
The actual table:
USA, 9
Canada, 5
Switzerland, 3
Norway, 1
SWE - FIN
Worst game of the tournament, both for Team Finland and generally. Hopefully Finland can bounce back to next one.
We said: Finland will beat Sweden, and the Finnish press will start planning the parade route. Finland takes it 5-2.
The score: 3-0 Sweden. Miss.
Our predicted standings:
Finland, 9 points
Sweden, 6
Germany, 3
Belarus, 0
And the final outcome:
Sweden, 9 points
Finland, 6
Belarus, 3
Germany, 0
Our boys let us down, but otherwise the group went like we thought.
Our record for days five and six is one close and five misses. We aren't doing that good.
Our overall record stand at: 1-4-13; in winners and losers, 13-5.
**
Elimination games:
We thought they would be:
SWE-NOR, SWE
SVK-LAT, SVK
CZE-BLR, CZE
SUI-GER, SUI
Apart from Sweden going straight to quarterfinals and Canada not, we got the teams right, but not the seeding order. If somebody figured Canada would go to elimination games, more power to ya.
Actual elimination match-ups are:
CZE - LAT
CAN - GER
SVK - NOR
SUI - BLR
**
Our scenario is now in tatters; the final we and the rest of the hockey world predicted will not take place. So here's our revised scenario for the rest of the games!
Elimination games:
CZE - LAT
CAN - GER
SVK - NOR
SUI - BLR
We predict the team with home advantage will win each game, though Switzerland and Belarus might well take it to overtime. Obviously we're hoping Canada will stun the hockey world by getting eliminated here, but we aren't going to put any money on Germany. We won't be putting money on Canada either, with the odds our governmet betting agency is giving, offering 1.01 times your bet.
Quarterfinals, as per our prediction:
USA - SUI
SWE - SVK
RUS - CAN
FIN - CZE
USA will win their game against Switzerland, but the other ones are tough to call. Any one of the six teams can win their game.
Slovakia is a mystery to us: they lose to the Czechs but defeat Russia. Overall they haven't impressed us, but neither has Sweden. They have excellent goaltending, though: Halak and Lundqvist have been the top two goalies of the tournament so far. We think Slovakia is the worse team, and they take too much penalties. Slovakia's only chance is that the gold-laden Swedish team is not hungry enough. They looked lackluster even when beating Finland 3-0. Still, we predict Sweden will win.
The most anticipated match-up of the tournament will not take place in the finals, but in the quarterfinals. One of the two teams thought most likely to take gold will go home without a medal. We think both teams have played poorly so far. Russia looked alright in their opening game, stumbled against Slovakia, but recovered in their last game against the Czechs. Canada had trouble getting started against Norway, barely defeated Switzerland, and lost to USA. Russians seem to be improving their game, which Canada has so far failed to do. Having to play Germany won't help with that. Canada has the most pressure, and their game hasn't been very good. Unless they can make it all come together, they will lose. We predict Russia wins, hopefully by a goal by Ilya Kovalchuk.
Finland versus the Czech Republic is Finland's game to win or lose. If the team that played against Germany and Belarus shows up, Finland wins. If the joke of a team that lost to Sweden turns up, they would lose to Latvia, let alone the Czechs. We feel really bad about Finland after the last game, but we think they should be able to win this game. We predict Finland wins.
Semifinals:
USA - FIN
SWE - RUS
Much as we wish it were otherwise, we believe we'll see USA - Russia final with Sweden and Finland competing for the bronze. We think Finland will want the bronze more and win the game, and we stand by our original prediction that Russia will take gold.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Vancouver, days 2-4
Day 2
FIN-BLR
A great start for Finland! So far, out of the big countries, we think Finland got off to the best start. As we guessed, Belarus scored off a Finnish defensive bungle, and Finland didn't turn it into a blowout even though they could have. The power play was firing nicely, Kiprusoff was himself, and the only problem we really saw with Finland was what we figured: the defense. Pairing up Lasse Kukkonen and Joni Pitkänen doesn't exactly give us faith.
We said: 5-2 to Finland.
The score: 5-1 Finland. It turned out pretty much like we thought it would, so we say close.
SWE-GER
As we predicted, a difficult game for Sweden, and actually a surprisingly good effort from Germany, even though they got shut out. They did beat Lundqvist twice, but only got posts, and frankly, Sweden's opening goal should have been disallowed for blatant goaltender interference. It's also going to be fascinating to see how many more crosschecks to the face Doug Murray can get away with. If anything, this was even closer than we thought.
We said: These teams are really in different leagues, so the difference will swing to Sweden, but only at 3-1.
The score: 2-0 Sweden. We're happy with this one; it turned out to be a sticky game like we thought, and hey, we had the goal differential right. We're calling this one close.
CZE-SVK
Our first proper miss of the tournament, in the first game whose outcome was seriously in question. Slovakia has a fair chance at winning this, but what killed their game was a failure to score, but much more importantly, penalties. The Czechs scored the winner on a giveaway, and the third goal on the power play at the very end of the third, after a string of monumentally stupid penalties by the Slovaks, including two dumb penalties by Chára, who played one of the worst games we've ever seen him play. The Slovaks frittered away their good rally in the second on dumb penalties, and in the third, they were just plain bad. A big disappointment, especially since the Czechs didn't look very impressive. Jágr wins the Old Guy From Europe sweepstakes, playing a much more impressive game than either Ziggy Palffy or Peter Forsberg.
We said: Realistically speaking, 3-2 Slovakia.
The score: 3-1 Czech Republic. Miss. To be more precise, fail. This is the first game where we got the winner wrong.
So, Day 2 was over, and our scenario was in the trash because Slovakia let us down. Our record was 1-3-2, and it was about to get worse.
**
Day FAIL
USA-NOR
It isn't getting any better. The Americans sucked. The score is as high as it is only because of the endearing North American habit of beating up their opponent when they're down. The game was 3-1 coming into the third. It's a real shame for Norway, who put up a gallant fight against practically impossible odds, and came out of it with a score that doesn't reflect the game at all. The Americans are going to be in serious trouble against Canada if their offense and power play are this bad.
We said: This should be the highest-scoring game in the tournament. 12-1.
The score: 6-1 USA. Fail.
SUI - CAN
This is one we really don't mind being wrong on. Just like four years ago in Torino, the Canadians came into the game with a serious attitude problem, and ran headfirst into the tenacious Swiss defence. The Swiss played an excellent, physical forechecking game, and for our money, they're the best-playing team in the whole tournament so far, and certainly our favorites. Canada was absolutely rubbish; the only line that worked at all was the San José trio. After the Swiss tied the game at 2-2, the entire Canadian team seemed to panic. In the end, what decided the game was the inability of any Swiss player to get the puck past Brodeur in the shootout; just one goal from any of the first three shooters would have put Canada away. For that matter, though, had Brodeur not played a superb game, Canada would almost certainly have lost in regulation. Not that Hiller wasn't good, too, but in fact, it was Brodeur who stole the game for his team, not Hiller.
We said: 5-2 Canada.
The score: 3-2 SO Canada. Fail.
SVK - RUS
If Slovakia was a huge disappointment in their game against the Czechs, that was nothing compared to the way Team Russia failed to show up for this game. Today was a day of total offensive failure, and nothing exemplifies it better that the fact that Russia only managed a single goal against Slovakia. Russia was incredibly confused and disorganized; they played far better against Latvia. At this rate, they'll lose the deciding game for the group win against the Czechs and completely junk our predictions.
We said: 5-3 to Russia, if not even higher.
The score: 2-1 SO Slovakia. EPIC FAIL.
A dismal day for our predictions, with two out of three results just plain wrong. Our record now stands at 1-3-5. Ouch. Both of the grand favorites for the gold medal were major disappointments today, with both going to overtime in games that they should easily have won in regulation. In fact, the only team that consistently played well today, in our opinion, was Switzerland. Even they failed in the scoring department in the shootout, making today the worst day in the history of the offense since the First World War.
**
Day 4
BLR - SWE
We said: Despite less than 24 hours of downtime, this will be the biggest-scoring game in Group C, with Sweden winning 8-1.
The score: 4-2 Sweden. Miss.
CZE - LAT
We said: 8-1 to the Czechs.
The score: 5-2 Czechs. Miss.
FIN - GER
We said: Finland takes this 3-0.
The score: 5-0 Finland. Miss.
Apart from Team Finland, the failure of the offensive continues. Neither the Czechs or the Swedes were able to convincingly put their opponents away; the Czechs scored their fifth goal after the Latvians optimistically pulled their goalie. The only game we thought would be low-scoring was scuppered by the Germans' strange insistence on taking epicly stupid penalties, and the marvelous efficacy of the Finnish power play.
**
This is our second Olympic update, and our record stands at an unfortunate 1-3-8. We've only managed to call one score exactly, three were close, and eight missed altogether. On the other hand, though, we got the final outcome right in nine out of twelve games; Canada only beat Switzerland in overtime, not regulation like we thought, and Slovakia surprised us both times, first be being worse than the Czechs and then somehow making the Russians even worse than them. So in terms of winners and losers, we're 10-2. And apart from the Czechs and Slovaks switching places, so far our scenario has survived surprisingly intact.
Given that our predictions were laid down before any games were played, we're quite happy with our dismal-looking record. We're also very happy with Team Finland's play, especially after the power play onslaught on Germany. Also, Teemu Selänne is now the all-time points leader in modern-era Olympic hockey! Go Teemu.
The decisive games are next! Now it starts getting really interesting.
FIN-BLR
A great start for Finland! So far, out of the big countries, we think Finland got off to the best start. As we guessed, Belarus scored off a Finnish defensive bungle, and Finland didn't turn it into a blowout even though they could have. The power play was firing nicely, Kiprusoff was himself, and the only problem we really saw with Finland was what we figured: the defense. Pairing up Lasse Kukkonen and Joni Pitkänen doesn't exactly give us faith.
We said: 5-2 to Finland.
The score: 5-1 Finland. It turned out pretty much like we thought it would, so we say close.
SWE-GER
As we predicted, a difficult game for Sweden, and actually a surprisingly good effort from Germany, even though they got shut out. They did beat Lundqvist twice, but only got posts, and frankly, Sweden's opening goal should have been disallowed for blatant goaltender interference. It's also going to be fascinating to see how many more crosschecks to the face Doug Murray can get away with. If anything, this was even closer than we thought.
We said: These teams are really in different leagues, so the difference will swing to Sweden, but only at 3-1.
The score: 2-0 Sweden. We're happy with this one; it turned out to be a sticky game like we thought, and hey, we had the goal differential right. We're calling this one close.
CZE-SVK
Our first proper miss of the tournament, in the first game whose outcome was seriously in question. Slovakia has a fair chance at winning this, but what killed their game was a failure to score, but much more importantly, penalties. The Czechs scored the winner on a giveaway, and the third goal on the power play at the very end of the third, after a string of monumentally stupid penalties by the Slovaks, including two dumb penalties by Chára, who played one of the worst games we've ever seen him play. The Slovaks frittered away their good rally in the second on dumb penalties, and in the third, they were just plain bad. A big disappointment, especially since the Czechs didn't look very impressive. Jágr wins the Old Guy From Europe sweepstakes, playing a much more impressive game than either Ziggy Palffy or Peter Forsberg.
We said: Realistically speaking, 3-2 Slovakia.
The score: 3-1 Czech Republic. Miss. To be more precise, fail. This is the first game where we got the winner wrong.
So, Day 2 was over, and our scenario was in the trash because Slovakia let us down. Our record was 1-3-2, and it was about to get worse.
**
Day FAIL
USA-NOR
It isn't getting any better. The Americans sucked. The score is as high as it is only because of the endearing North American habit of beating up their opponent when they're down. The game was 3-1 coming into the third. It's a real shame for Norway, who put up a gallant fight against practically impossible odds, and came out of it with a score that doesn't reflect the game at all. The Americans are going to be in serious trouble against Canada if their offense and power play are this bad.
We said: This should be the highest-scoring game in the tournament. 12-1.
The score: 6-1 USA. Fail.
SUI - CAN
This is one we really don't mind being wrong on. Just like four years ago in Torino, the Canadians came into the game with a serious attitude problem, and ran headfirst into the tenacious Swiss defence. The Swiss played an excellent, physical forechecking game, and for our money, they're the best-playing team in the whole tournament so far, and certainly our favorites. Canada was absolutely rubbish; the only line that worked at all was the San José trio. After the Swiss tied the game at 2-2, the entire Canadian team seemed to panic. In the end, what decided the game was the inability of any Swiss player to get the puck past Brodeur in the shootout; just one goal from any of the first three shooters would have put Canada away. For that matter, though, had Brodeur not played a superb game, Canada would almost certainly have lost in regulation. Not that Hiller wasn't good, too, but in fact, it was Brodeur who stole the game for his team, not Hiller.
We said: 5-2 Canada.
The score: 3-2 SO Canada. Fail.
SVK - RUS
If Slovakia was a huge disappointment in their game against the Czechs, that was nothing compared to the way Team Russia failed to show up for this game. Today was a day of total offensive failure, and nothing exemplifies it better that the fact that Russia only managed a single goal against Slovakia. Russia was incredibly confused and disorganized; they played far better against Latvia. At this rate, they'll lose the deciding game for the group win against the Czechs and completely junk our predictions.
We said: 5-3 to Russia, if not even higher.
The score: 2-1 SO Slovakia. EPIC FAIL.
A dismal day for our predictions, with two out of three results just plain wrong. Our record now stands at 1-3-5. Ouch. Both of the grand favorites for the gold medal were major disappointments today, with both going to overtime in games that they should easily have won in regulation. In fact, the only team that consistently played well today, in our opinion, was Switzerland. Even they failed in the scoring department in the shootout, making today the worst day in the history of the offense since the First World War.
**
Day 4
BLR - SWE
We said: Despite less than 24 hours of downtime, this will be the biggest-scoring game in Group C, with Sweden winning 8-1.
The score: 4-2 Sweden. Miss.
CZE - LAT
We said: 8-1 to the Czechs.
The score: 5-2 Czechs. Miss.
FIN - GER
We said: Finland takes this 3-0.
The score: 5-0 Finland. Miss.
Apart from Team Finland, the failure of the offensive continues. Neither the Czechs or the Swedes were able to convincingly put their opponents away; the Czechs scored their fifth goal after the Latvians optimistically pulled their goalie. The only game we thought would be low-scoring was scuppered by the Germans' strange insistence on taking epicly stupid penalties, and the marvelous efficacy of the Finnish power play.
**
This is our second Olympic update, and our record stands at an unfortunate 1-3-8. We've only managed to call one score exactly, three were close, and eight missed altogether. On the other hand, though, we got the final outcome right in nine out of twelve games; Canada only beat Switzerland in overtime, not regulation like we thought, and Slovakia surprised us both times, first be being worse than the Czechs and then somehow making the Russians even worse than them. So in terms of winners and losers, we're 10-2. And apart from the Czechs and Slovaks switching places, so far our scenario has survived surprisingly intact.
Given that our predictions were laid down before any games were played, we're quite happy with our dismal-looking record. We're also very happy with Team Finland's play, especially after the power play onslaught on Germany. Also, Teemu Selänne is now the all-time points leader in modern-era Olympic hockey! Go Teemu.
The decisive games are next! Now it starts getting really interesting.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Vancouver, Day 1
Vancouver, Day 1
The first day of the Olympics is behind us, and we're here to check up on our predictions. Let's look at the games!
**
USA-SUI
We expected this to be a tough game, and it turned out that way. Ralph Krüger's Switzerland plays a very tight defensive game, with a surprisingly competent offense and power play, and they didn't make it easy for the Americans.
We said: It could turn into a blowout, but we expect a fairly close game. 3-1 or thereabouts to the Americans.
The score: 3-1 USA. Spot on!
Our first prediction ever, and it's dead right! We feel quite good about this one.
**
CAN-NOR
Given that we remember several Canadian coaches, including a lunatic in garishly colored jackets, have a habit of pontificating about "running up the score", it was fascinating to see Canada score half of the goals in this game after their opponent was totally beaten. Par for the course for Canadian hockey.
As for the game, though, the numbers don't do the Norwegians justice. Luongo's shutout was perilously close to being broken several times, and it took luck keep the goose egg intact. The first period ended 0-0, and Norway played very well until the head coach's inexplicable decision to change goaltenders after the 4-0 goal. Pål Grotnes played an excellent game, as he always does, notwithstanding the ugly 3-0 wraparound goal, so pulling him in the second period was a bit of a surprise. Often coaches change goalies to send the team a message, and this time it seemed to tell the team that the game was over. After Grotnes went off, the fight went out of Norway completely, and the Canadians hammered in another 4 goals. Given that goal differentials do matter in this tournament, and Grotnes was playing excellently, we're not sure what the coach was going for; had he not switched goalies, the game wouldn't have ended up nearly as ugly.
We said: It's easy to see how this could get surprisingly difficult for the home side, but then again, it's Norway. Unless the Canadians fail hideously, we're thinking something between 5-2 or 8-1 to Canada.
The score: 8-0 CAN.
What we failed to mention in the first post is that for purposes of working out our scenario, we pegged this one at 7-1. 8-0 is just outside the spread we gave, and very close to the score we used for our calculations. We're calling this one close. The eventual score is very close to what we used for our scenario, and nearly within the bracket we gave, so we're quite happy with this one as well. Norway was within inches of scoring at least once, and Canada's sticky start kept the numbers below what they might have been.
**
RUS-LAT
Until the start of the third period, this game too was going down exactly like we thought: after a lightning start, both teams spent the second period doing pretty much nothing, and the game was 4-0 Russia at the end of the second. Then a minute into the third the Latvians went and scored. Not only did they ruin our prediction, but they made the Russians mad by ruining Nabokov's shutout. They scored three goals on their next four shots, followed by Latvia's second goal. If everyone had just taken it easy at the start of the third, 6-0 looked more than likely, but no. Stupid goal. Weirdly, the refs called this one totally differently from the other two games tonight, with way more penalties going both ways.
We said: 6-0 Russia for the first shutout of the tournament; either Nabokov or Brizgalov will do.
The score: 8-2 RUS. Miss. Okay, we got the winner and loser right, but we won't take any credit for that in this case.
**
To finish off, a couple of general observations. We've now seen Canada on the ice, but it's impossible to say anything about them based on that game. The first period was just terrible hockey, the second was passable, and in the third there was only one team on the ice. We actually thought the Americans handled themselves better in their debut. All Canada has proved so far is that they can beat Norway, with difficulty. Russia, too, gave some early indications of trouble; their defense wasn't all that great, and Nabokov was surprisingly shaky in the third.
The little countries, though, played far better than the numbers indicate. The Norwegians and Swiss played as well as we expected, but quite frankly, the Latvians were surprisingly good! The old days of the '90s, where the underdog countries played a 1-2-2 trap based on the hook and slash are well and truly gone, and good riddance to them. All six countries who took the ice today basically played the same kind of competitive hockey and put up a proper fight, with the partial exception of the Norwegians.
Overall the differences in international hockey have gotten a lot smaller since the turn of the millennium, and that's a good thing for international hockey. On that happy note, we'll sum up with our record so far:
1 hit
1 close
1 miss
Tonight, Team Finland debuts, and we look forward to our first complete miss of the tournament when the Czechs face Slovakia, especially if Márians Gáborik and Hossa are both out. We'll be back to check up on our predictions as soon as we can be bothered.
The first day of the Olympics is behind us, and we're here to check up on our predictions. Let's look at the games!
**
USA-SUI
We expected this to be a tough game, and it turned out that way. Ralph Krüger's Switzerland plays a very tight defensive game, with a surprisingly competent offense and power play, and they didn't make it easy for the Americans.
We said: It could turn into a blowout, but we expect a fairly close game. 3-1 or thereabouts to the Americans.
The score: 3-1 USA. Spot on!
Our first prediction ever, and it's dead right! We feel quite good about this one.
**
CAN-NOR
Given that we remember several Canadian coaches, including a lunatic in garishly colored jackets, have a habit of pontificating about "running up the score", it was fascinating to see Canada score half of the goals in this game after their opponent was totally beaten. Par for the course for Canadian hockey.
As for the game, though, the numbers don't do the Norwegians justice. Luongo's shutout was perilously close to being broken several times, and it took luck keep the goose egg intact. The first period ended 0-0, and Norway played very well until the head coach's inexplicable decision to change goaltenders after the 4-0 goal. Pål Grotnes played an excellent game, as he always does, notwithstanding the ugly 3-0 wraparound goal, so pulling him in the second period was a bit of a surprise. Often coaches change goalies to send the team a message, and this time it seemed to tell the team that the game was over. After Grotnes went off, the fight went out of Norway completely, and the Canadians hammered in another 4 goals. Given that goal differentials do matter in this tournament, and Grotnes was playing excellently, we're not sure what the coach was going for; had he not switched goalies, the game wouldn't have ended up nearly as ugly.
We said: It's easy to see how this could get surprisingly difficult for the home side, but then again, it's Norway. Unless the Canadians fail hideously, we're thinking something between 5-2 or 8-1 to Canada.
The score: 8-0 CAN.
What we failed to mention in the first post is that for purposes of working out our scenario, we pegged this one at 7-1. 8-0 is just outside the spread we gave, and very close to the score we used for our calculations. We're calling this one close. The eventual score is very close to what we used for our scenario, and nearly within the bracket we gave, so we're quite happy with this one as well. Norway was within inches of scoring at least once, and Canada's sticky start kept the numbers below what they might have been.
**
RUS-LAT
Until the start of the third period, this game too was going down exactly like we thought: after a lightning start, both teams spent the second period doing pretty much nothing, and the game was 4-0 Russia at the end of the second. Then a minute into the third the Latvians went and scored. Not only did they ruin our prediction, but they made the Russians mad by ruining Nabokov's shutout. They scored three goals on their next four shots, followed by Latvia's second goal. If everyone had just taken it easy at the start of the third, 6-0 looked more than likely, but no. Stupid goal. Weirdly, the refs called this one totally differently from the other two games tonight, with way more penalties going both ways.
We said: 6-0 Russia for the first shutout of the tournament; either Nabokov or Brizgalov will do.
The score: 8-2 RUS. Miss. Okay, we got the winner and loser right, but we won't take any credit for that in this case.
**
To finish off, a couple of general observations. We've now seen Canada on the ice, but it's impossible to say anything about them based on that game. The first period was just terrible hockey, the second was passable, and in the third there was only one team on the ice. We actually thought the Americans handled themselves better in their debut. All Canada has proved so far is that they can beat Norway, with difficulty. Russia, too, gave some early indications of trouble; their defense wasn't all that great, and Nabokov was surprisingly shaky in the third.
The little countries, though, played far better than the numbers indicate. The Norwegians and Swiss played as well as we expected, but quite frankly, the Latvians were surprisingly good! The old days of the '90s, where the underdog countries played a 1-2-2 trap based on the hook and slash are well and truly gone, and good riddance to them. All six countries who took the ice today basically played the same kind of competitive hockey and put up a proper fight, with the partial exception of the Norwegians.
Overall the differences in international hockey have gotten a lot smaller since the turn of the millennium, and that's a good thing for international hockey. On that happy note, we'll sum up with our record so far:
1 hit
1 close
1 miss
Tonight, Team Finland debuts, and we look forward to our first complete miss of the tournament when the Czechs face Slovakia, especially if Márians Gáborik and Hossa are both out. We'll be back to check up on our predictions as soon as we can be bothered.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Olympic hockey 2010
The puck hits the ice this evening, so it's high time for our official 2010 Winter Olympics men's hockey preview. This is also our first "official" prediction, meaning we're going to lay our insignificant reputations on the line and actually tell you who'll win it. So this is how those of us concerned with hockey, meaning everybody except the new guy, see Vancouver working out.
(we accept no liability for gambling losses; we'll end up with enough of our own to worry about)
**
The tournament is actually set up interestingly. There are three groups of four teams, which are as follows, with their placement on the IIHF World Ranking in brackets:
Group A
Canada (2)
USA (5)
Switzerland (7)
Norway (11)
Group B
Russia (1)
Latvia (10)
Czech Republic (6)
Slovakia (9)
Group C
Sweden (3)
Finland (4)
Belarus (8)
Germany (12)
After the first round, the best team in each group advances directly to the quarterfinals, along with the best second-place team. The remaining eight are paired up and play a single elimination game, with the winners taking on the four direct qualifiers in the quarterfinals.
In short, if you can win your initial group, you avoid the "eighth-final" elimination game altogether, and get home ice advantage in the quarterfinals. The "best second" also gets this.
We like this tournament set-up, because the initial games really do matter now. You have to win them, and win them big, because it's almost certain that after the initial round, several teams will have equal points, so goal differentials come into play in re-seeding teams for the elimination games.
That's also what will probably make this a surprisingly tough tournament for the "big countries". The first games will matter, and remember that for all the top-ranked countries, most, if not all, of their team barely gets any preparation time for this tournament at all. It's not easy to be firing on all cylinders right off the bat! (I love mixing metaphors; this one creates the impression of an internal-combustion powered missile being fired off the end of a baseball bat, which is an image I thoroughly enjoy)
This makes predicting outcomes slightly difficult. What makes it even worse is that really, it's impossible to just look at the rosters and say "this country will win bronze". It's going to be a really close tournament. On the other hand, that's what makes this interesting.
**
That's the introduction over with. We figure that since we're doing this, we might as well provide you with a complete scenario. Having already said that this is going to be a close tournament and a tough one to call, we'll be looking at it from bottom to top. For starters, we'll proceed by group.
First of all, some general observations on the teams.
Group A
Canada - Oh, Canada. Clocking in at an average age of 28, the Canadians bring a surprisingly young team. Mostly this is because of bad memories attached to some obscure Italian city that may or may not have hosted the Winter Olympics a few years back. What can we say? It's a fantastic roster, sure, and it's hard not to pick the home team to win the whole thing. Then again, one remembers Torino (even if they don't), and the '08 world champs, also in Canada. It's funny that after everyone spent the entire '90s talking about how Russia was a team made up of moody superstars who would either gel or go out in flames, now Canada is the team with the biggest mental question mark attached. How will they do under the pressure of the home audience, with literally all of Canada watching?
USA - We like the Americans. In general, sure, but also to do well in this tournament. A young, fast, dangerous team, who should have plenty of fight in them. Of course, with youth comes inexperience. Apart from a few exceptions, most of the roster has very little experience of either NHL playoffs or international tournaments. We're also not entirely sold on Ron Wilson, but when it's such a short tournament, who knows how much difference the guy behind the bench will make? We think they'll do well, but the lack of experience could show.
Switzerland & Norway - It's a little cruel to simply bypass the native country of one of our bloggers with a shrug, but sadly, that's the case with Switzerland and Norway. The Swiss have an outside chance of squeezing into the quarterfinals, but really, the only interest attached to them is whether they can give either of the previous two teams a nasty shock in the opening round. Having said that, Norway did surprisingly well at the last two World Championships, and if the Swiss get their game going, they might make life surprisingly difficult for an opponent in an elimination game.
Group B
Russia - The record and roster speak for themselves. Under head coach Bykov, the Russians are just plain scary. The only question mark is the defense corps; the goaltending is top-notch, and if we have to explain the forwards, then I'm not sure where to start. The big red machine is back, and the Russians really are the team to beat here.
Latvia - The once proud country of Arturs Irbe, now reduced to a single sentence in our preview.
Czech Republic - We don't like them to do well here. A team of aging superstars and indifferent younger players, the Czechs always step up their game at big tournaments, but there's an inescapable feeling that time has passed by the Czechs. A dangerous team, sure, but not podium material.
Slovakia - Mixed feelings. On the one hand, the Slovaks have great upset potential; on the other hand, that's all they have these days. This team is basically the old world champion team (their youngest forward is Márian Gáborik(!)) with a couple of new guys added on. Like the Czechs, potentially very dangerous, but also like the Czechs, another team that time forgot.
Group C
Sweden - Another team we're skeptical about, and not just because we're from Finland. With an average age of 31 years, there's quite a few guys from the old guard with gold medals from Torino still hanging around their necks. How interested are they really going to be in this tournament? Peter Forsberg seems to be, but frankly, we're astonished he's on the roster. With a grand total of 17 games this season, is he really up for this? The only young forwards on the roster are Bäckström, Hörnqvist and Eriksson, so one might say the Swedes also have a bit of a "changing of the guard" issue ahead of them. By the way, why is Stefan Liv on the roster? Where's Johan Hedberg? Anyway, like the Czechs and the Slovaks, on the face of it, the Swedish team doesn't look too impressive. That's no reason to count them out, though.
Finland - For once, we feel good about Team Finland's roster. In individual skills, like always, Team Finland can't hope to match any of the "big countries", but the guys do play well together as a team, especially at big tournaments like the Olympics and the World Cup. We have leadership, world-class goaltending, and we have guys who are still pissed off that we lost to the Swedes at Torino. The new Team Finland top line is making its debut here around Mikko Koivu, so the torch is being passed on, but at least we have someone to pass it to in Mikko Koivu, Tuomo Ruutu and Valtteri Filppula, among others. More thoughts on the Finnish roster on the Finnish-language blog, but suffice to say that the defensive corps is the biggest question.
Belarus & Germany - Sadly, Belarus won't be repeating the miracle of Salt Lake City in this tournament (okay, we hope they will, but it's unlikely). Germany may, like Switzerland, prove a surprisingly tough nut to crack, but if either of these countries makes it to the quarterfinals, we'd consider it a major upset.
To sum up, we see the participating countries falling into five groups:
1. Canada and Russia: the most likely finalists, and quite simply, the best two teams in the tournament.
2. USA: if neither of the above takes the gold home, it's going to be the Americans. Biggest upset potential in the tournament.
3. Finland and Sweden: The five countries mentioned so far will divide up the medals amongst themselves, unless something shocking happens.
4. Czechs and Slovaks: It will take an upset for these guys to be involved in the semifinals, but it's not impossible.
5. The others. The above seven countries, and one lucky winner from the rest, will make up the quarterfinal pairs. If it isn't that simple, that's already an upset. Unless something goes terribly wrong for one of the big countries, these guys don't stand a chance.
**
Whew. There's our thoughts on where the teams stand. Now we'll break it down by groups, game by game.
Group A
USA - SUI
A potentially tough opener for the Americans. It'll be hard for the Americans to make their game gel right away, and the Swiss have the advantage of a longer prep time, and top-notch goaltending from Jonas Hiller. We expect the Americans to come out swinging, but it may get surprisingly sticky if the Swiss have their defensive game together. Remember, they did beat the Canadians in Torino's opening round.
It could turn into a blowout, but we expect a fairly close game. 3-1 or thereabouts to the Americans.
CAN - NOR
It's Canada's opening game in front of their home crowd, with something to prove to the fans. It's easy to see how this could get surprisingly difficult for the home side, but then again, it's Norway. Unless the Canadians fail hideously, we're thinking something between 5-2 or 8-1 to Canada.
USA - NOR
By any rights, this should be a massacre. Team USA should be getting into the swing of things by now, and the Norwegians will have less than 24 hours to recover from Canada. This should be the highest-scoring game in the tournament. 12-1.
SUI - CAN
On the one hand, vengeance for the opening round in Torino; on the other hand, if the Swiss can stick to their game, they can make this a frustrating experience for the Canadians. Having the Swiss stand them up in front of their home fans will really test Team Canada, so there is some slight potential for wackiness here, but really, it would be madness to bet on anything but a Canadian win in regulation. 5-2 Canada.
NOR - SUI
This one's going to Switzerland. If the Swiss can play their game, and they always do, they'll take this one home to finish third in their group. 4-1 Switzerland.
CAN - USA
And finally, the big one in Group A. It'll take more than one unlikely game finish for this not to be for the group win, so this is the big game. This is the young Americans' first big game in the tournament, and while it's going to be a hard-fought one, we think Canada will take this one 4-3 to emerge as group winner.
If this is what happens, we end up with a surprisingly neat group table:
Canada, 9 points
USA, 6
Switzerland, 3
Norway, 0
Alas, poor Switzerland and Norway, but them's the breaks.
**
Group B
RUS - LAT
Oh dear. Latvia's fallen far in the last few years, and quite frankly, the only thing that will keep the numbers down here is that the Russians rarely flog a dead horse. Even though it's Canadians who usually scream about not scoring gratuitious goals against an already beaten opponent, they're the ones who do that in international play, not the Russians. As far as we can tell, the Russians just can't be bothered. 6-0 Russia for the first shutout of the tournament; either Nabokov or Brizgalov will do.
CZE - SVK
This is a tough one to call, because this is Central Europe's equivalent of the Finland-Sweden game. As we understand it, there's some emotional involvement in these games, which makes them unpredictable. On the whole, we think Slovakia has a better team in these games than the Czechs, but the Czechs have superior goaltending and Jaromír Jágr. We confidently but unrealistically expect Gáborik to score five goals. As this is also the first game in the tournament for both teams, there is extra potential for weirdness. Realistically speaking, 3-2 Slovakia.
SVK - RUS
The real test of Slovakia's upset potential will be how they do against the Russians. This is the kind of game the Russians can lose; we don't think they will, but they could, so we'd be leery about betting on this one. The Slovaks don't bring a lot to the tournament, but they do have proven goal-scorers, and the Russians' biggest weakness is their defence. Which ever goalie plays for Russia may find himself somewhat beleaguered as this could turn into a proper scoring competition. 5-3 to Russia, if not even higher.
CZE - LAT
Despite all the mean things we've said about the Czechs, this one's a foregone conclusion. 8-1 to the Czechs.
LAT - SVK
Alas, poor Latvia: 24 hours after that beatdown they meet Zdeno Chára and Márian Gáborik, still irate over losing to Russia. This is a horrible group for the Latvians, as it's hard to see them being anything other than a punching bag. 6-2 to Slovakia.
RUS - CZE
The Russians are so going to beat them. The Czechs should go down with their boots on, but they should go down. The only caveat is that if the Russians have defensive weaknesses, and we think they might, Jágr and friends are the guys to take advantage of it. Given the Czechs' rubbish performance internationally of late, and the general bad vibe we're getting from their roster, we believe the Russians will take this in regulation at 5-2.
Again, a strangely neat group table:
Russia, 9
Slovakia, 6
Czech Republic, 3
Latvia, 0
Frankly, this will not happen. It's exceedingly unlikely that neither group will provide even a single overtime game, and we may even see a shootout, but this is a scenario, and this is what we'd bet on. Russia should be a lock to win the group and advance directly to the quarterfinals.
**
Group C
FIN - BLR
Finland's opening game, against a country that is in the running to finish dead last in the tournament. It'll end 5-2, because while Kiprusoff is perfectly capable of shutting out a team like Belarus, the rest of Team Finland isn't. This is the only game where Finland could potentially score a blowout, but we never do; instead, we'll screw up in our own end, miss out more scoring chances than you can possibly imagine, and generally play like Finland does. 5-2 to Finland.
SWE - GER
If Sweden is going to flop in this tournament, this is where they'll do it. Germany is usually a pretty solid team, notwithstanding last year's world champs debacle, and we really don't see much offensive brilliance in Team Sweden outside Nicklas Bäckström and possibly the Sedins, if they feel like it. These teams are really in different leagues, so the difference will swing to Sweden, but only at 3-1.
BLR - SWE
Oh, if only. As it is, though, Tommy Salo isn't on the team, and Belarus aren't what they used to be, so that particular brand of lightning won't strike twice in North America. After butting heads with Germany, the Swedes will relish the opportunity to relax a little and deal out some righteous vengeance to Belarus. Despite less than 24 hours of downtime, this will be the biggest-scoring game in Group C, with Sweden winning 8-1.
FIN - GER
If Team Finland takes this game seriously, and Kiprusoff plays, this is a foregone conclusion. If they take it easy, and Bäckström plays, it might get surprisingly tricky. We're confident Finland will win this, though, and as a World Cup throwback (remember when we last had one of those?), we're saying Finland takes this 3-0.
GER - BLR
4-1 Germany. The Germans grind out their normal defensive game, the Belarussians take penalties and the Germans hit them on the power play. This is the Germans' game, and they know it, especially after their rubbish performances at the world champs lately.
SWE - FIN
In Finnish hockey, this is El Clásico: Finland and Sweden. The underdog and the arch-nemesis, this time with the added bonus of being a repeat of the previous Olympic final. This actually makes us like Finland better for this: it's payback time! Frankly, this game will probably be Team Finland's high point in the tournament; it's all downhill from here on. Nothing motivates our guys like Sweden. Finland will beat Sweden, and the Finnish press will start planning the parade route. Finland takes it 5-2.
We think Finland will win the group and take a quarterfinal spot.
Finland, 9 points
Sweden, 6
Germany, 3
Belarus, 0
**
So in short, we think that this is going to be the neatest tournament ever, with no overtime games. We don't, really, but it's almost impossible to predict which of these games will end up in overtime. Some of them almost certainly will, but if we knew ahead of time which ones they are, we'd make a fair deal of money.
In general, our result predictions are rough ballpark guesses; even we wouldn't put money on the exact numbers or a small spread. If we really knew how to do this, we wouldn't give it away for free! So take this stuff with a grain of salt.
If the initial round plays out like we think, the four countries going directly to the quarterfinals are Russia, Canada, Finland and the United states. Here's the elimination round, game by game; at this point, calling scores gets a bit dodgy, so we'll just settle for telling you who goes through, and goal differentials don't matter for seeding purposes any more.
SWE-NOR
Sorry, guys, you're going to have a rough tournament. Sweden goes through. Of course, this would be a great opportunity for perhaps the most momentous failure in Swedish hockey history, so we'll be rooting for that; it's just that we don't believe in it.
SVK-LAT
Yeah. Slovakia.
CZE-BLR
Also a fairly foregone conclusion. The Czechs.
SUI-GER
This is really the only interesting game in the whole elimination round. These guys have done this before, and if the chips fall like we think they will, the hegemony of Central Europe is again up for grabs. We think Switzerland will take this, but it may go to overtime. In general, Switzerland has surpassed Germany decisively in international hockey over the past few years, and Switzerland will squeeze into the quarterfinals.
**
Quarterfinals
Now we get to the big games. These are the trickiest games to call in some ways, because it's a single elimination game.
RUS-SUI
Okay, this is the least big game. Realistically speaking, there's simply no way the Russians aren't going to win this. This is the best opportunity to ruin your entire tournament in one game, but they know that. Russia.
CAN-CZE
This is Canada's big chance to totally fail; if they're going to flop spectacularly, Torino-style, this is the spot. Certainly they're not going to. We don't think they're going to, so Canada wins. At the end of the day, the Czechs don't have a chance if Canada keeps it together.
FIN-SVK
Potentially tricky. They have superstars, but on the whole, we believe Finland has better goaltending, defense and forwards. If Team Finland plays like they usually do at the Olympics, they should simply be the better team. Finland wins.
USA-SWE
The biggest game of the quarterfinal round, and the biggest game of the tournament for the US team. For the Americans, this game is the difference between a disappointment and an upset. A classic matchup between aging, long-in-the-tooth defending champs Sweden and the young, dynamic, up-and-coming Americans. Both teams are perfectly capable of winning this, making this the hardest game of all to call. We think the US will take it, but it's going to be really close, and could go either way.
**
Semifinals
Russia - USA
This is the end of the road for the Americans. We say if the Russians come this far, they're going all the way. It's possible Team USA can win this, but we don't think so. Russia goes to the final.
Canada - Finland
The obvious answer is Canada, and we don't disagree. However, this is the one place in the tournament where Canada will have a real opportunity to come apart at the seams. This is the first really big game Team Canada has at the Olympics, and there's a very real chance that the easy tournament will have lulled them into a false sense of security, and their minds are already in the final. If there's one goalie in this tournament who can stop Team Canada, it's Kiprusoff. We can see him standing up the distracted Canadians, who then get frustrated, end up in the penalty box, and the Finnish power play makes them pay. However, even though we can see this happening, it doesn't mean that even we think it's particularly likely. Canada wins, but we might take them to overtime for it.
**
Medal games
Bronze medal game: Finland - USA
The eternal truth is that the bronze medal always goes to the team that wants it more. We think the Americans will want it more, leaving Finland in fourth place for the first time since Lake Placid. North America hasn't been kind to Team Finland on the whole, but then again, fourth place is better than most would give us.
Gold medal game: Russia - Canada
Boringly, our detailed game-by-game scenario ends up exactly where we were the minute the topic of this tournament was broached: a final matchup between Canada and Russia. Anything else is a huge upset. Those happen occasionally, but pretty much by definition, they're impossible to predict.
The way the tournament is set up, unless either Canada or Russia bungles catastrophically, this will be the first time they face each other at the Games. It should be a true classic for the ages, and because it should, the game is going to suck. We're going to say Alexander Radulov completes his hat trick in overtime to seal the win for Russia. Ovechkin, by the way, scores no points in the semi-final or final, but gets a couple of big hits in and blocks 12 shots.
**
Having said all this, the real final will be Sweden and the Czech Republic, and no-one will understand why. Seriously speaking, this is our monolithic game-by-game prediction. Because it's so precise, we do realize that just one unexpected result in the initial round will completely derail everything and make everything we've written totally worthless. Nonetheless, we're not just making this up out of whole cloth, but there's a painstaking process behind this, and we like processes.
The way we see it, the Russia-Canada final everyone's expecting seems unavoidable, and someone in the International Olympic Committee really, really hates Norway.
Sadly, we think Torino was Finland's best chance ever to win Olympic gold. The hurdles here are just too big for Team Finland to overcome, so Jere Lehtinen won't be joining the Triple Gold Club this year. However, Teemu Selänne is two points away from tying the all-time personal Olympic scoring record, with 35 points in 20 games before this year's tournament. The all-time record is held by Vlastimil Bubnik from the Czechoslovak national team, at 37 points (22+15) in 29 games, and we confidently expect Teemu to set a new record in Vancouver.
Here's a couple of throwaway predictions:
Team most likely to score 0 goals: Norway
Leading scorer: Patrick Kane
Best goaltender: Evgeni Nabokov
**
This is the first time we've done a prediction like this, and it was fun to put together. What actually happens is up to chance and the hockey gods; the only thing we really know is that it should be fun to watch. As brutal as it may turn out to be, we'll be back to check how well we did at the end of the tournament. Until then, enjoy the games!
(we accept no liability for gambling losses; we'll end up with enough of our own to worry about)
**
The tournament is actually set up interestingly. There are three groups of four teams, which are as follows, with their placement on the IIHF World Ranking in brackets:
Group A
Canada (2)
USA (5)
Switzerland (7)
Norway (11)
Group B
Russia (1)
Latvia (10)
Czech Republic (6)
Slovakia (9)
Group C
Sweden (3)
Finland (4)
Belarus (8)
Germany (12)
After the first round, the best team in each group advances directly to the quarterfinals, along with the best second-place team. The remaining eight are paired up and play a single elimination game, with the winners taking on the four direct qualifiers in the quarterfinals.
In short, if you can win your initial group, you avoid the "eighth-final" elimination game altogether, and get home ice advantage in the quarterfinals. The "best second" also gets this.
We like this tournament set-up, because the initial games really do matter now. You have to win them, and win them big, because it's almost certain that after the initial round, several teams will have equal points, so goal differentials come into play in re-seeding teams for the elimination games.
That's also what will probably make this a surprisingly tough tournament for the "big countries". The first games will matter, and remember that for all the top-ranked countries, most, if not all, of their team barely gets any preparation time for this tournament at all. It's not easy to be firing on all cylinders right off the bat! (I love mixing metaphors; this one creates the impression of an internal-combustion powered missile being fired off the end of a baseball bat, which is an image I thoroughly enjoy)
This makes predicting outcomes slightly difficult. What makes it even worse is that really, it's impossible to just look at the rosters and say "this country will win bronze". It's going to be a really close tournament. On the other hand, that's what makes this interesting.
**
That's the introduction over with. We figure that since we're doing this, we might as well provide you with a complete scenario. Having already said that this is going to be a close tournament and a tough one to call, we'll be looking at it from bottom to top. For starters, we'll proceed by group.
First of all, some general observations on the teams.
Group A
Canada - Oh, Canada. Clocking in at an average age of 28, the Canadians bring a surprisingly young team. Mostly this is because of bad memories attached to some obscure Italian city that may or may not have hosted the Winter Olympics a few years back. What can we say? It's a fantastic roster, sure, and it's hard not to pick the home team to win the whole thing. Then again, one remembers Torino (even if they don't), and the '08 world champs, also in Canada. It's funny that after everyone spent the entire '90s talking about how Russia was a team made up of moody superstars who would either gel or go out in flames, now Canada is the team with the biggest mental question mark attached. How will they do under the pressure of the home audience, with literally all of Canada watching?
USA - We like the Americans. In general, sure, but also to do well in this tournament. A young, fast, dangerous team, who should have plenty of fight in them. Of course, with youth comes inexperience. Apart from a few exceptions, most of the roster has very little experience of either NHL playoffs or international tournaments. We're also not entirely sold on Ron Wilson, but when it's such a short tournament, who knows how much difference the guy behind the bench will make? We think they'll do well, but the lack of experience could show.
Switzerland & Norway - It's a little cruel to simply bypass the native country of one of our bloggers with a shrug, but sadly, that's the case with Switzerland and Norway. The Swiss have an outside chance of squeezing into the quarterfinals, but really, the only interest attached to them is whether they can give either of the previous two teams a nasty shock in the opening round. Having said that, Norway did surprisingly well at the last two World Championships, and if the Swiss get their game going, they might make life surprisingly difficult for an opponent in an elimination game.
Group B
Russia - The record and roster speak for themselves. Under head coach Bykov, the Russians are just plain scary. The only question mark is the defense corps; the goaltending is top-notch, and if we have to explain the forwards, then I'm not sure where to start. The big red machine is back, and the Russians really are the team to beat here.
Latvia - The once proud country of Arturs Irbe, now reduced to a single sentence in our preview.
Czech Republic - We don't like them to do well here. A team of aging superstars and indifferent younger players, the Czechs always step up their game at big tournaments, but there's an inescapable feeling that time has passed by the Czechs. A dangerous team, sure, but not podium material.
Slovakia - Mixed feelings. On the one hand, the Slovaks have great upset potential; on the other hand, that's all they have these days. This team is basically the old world champion team (their youngest forward is Márian Gáborik(!)) with a couple of new guys added on. Like the Czechs, potentially very dangerous, but also like the Czechs, another team that time forgot.
Group C
Sweden - Another team we're skeptical about, and not just because we're from Finland. With an average age of 31 years, there's quite a few guys from the old guard with gold medals from Torino still hanging around their necks. How interested are they really going to be in this tournament? Peter Forsberg seems to be, but frankly, we're astonished he's on the roster. With a grand total of 17 games this season, is he really up for this? The only young forwards on the roster are Bäckström, Hörnqvist and Eriksson, so one might say the Swedes also have a bit of a "changing of the guard" issue ahead of them. By the way, why is Stefan Liv on the roster? Where's Johan Hedberg? Anyway, like the Czechs and the Slovaks, on the face of it, the Swedish team doesn't look too impressive. That's no reason to count them out, though.
Finland - For once, we feel good about Team Finland's roster. In individual skills, like always, Team Finland can't hope to match any of the "big countries", but the guys do play well together as a team, especially at big tournaments like the Olympics and the World Cup. We have leadership, world-class goaltending, and we have guys who are still pissed off that we lost to the Swedes at Torino. The new Team Finland top line is making its debut here around Mikko Koivu, so the torch is being passed on, but at least we have someone to pass it to in Mikko Koivu, Tuomo Ruutu and Valtteri Filppula, among others. More thoughts on the Finnish roster on the Finnish-language blog, but suffice to say that the defensive corps is the biggest question.
Belarus & Germany - Sadly, Belarus won't be repeating the miracle of Salt Lake City in this tournament (okay, we hope they will, but it's unlikely). Germany may, like Switzerland, prove a surprisingly tough nut to crack, but if either of these countries makes it to the quarterfinals, we'd consider it a major upset.
To sum up, we see the participating countries falling into five groups:
1. Canada and Russia: the most likely finalists, and quite simply, the best two teams in the tournament.
2. USA: if neither of the above takes the gold home, it's going to be the Americans. Biggest upset potential in the tournament.
3. Finland and Sweden: The five countries mentioned so far will divide up the medals amongst themselves, unless something shocking happens.
4. Czechs and Slovaks: It will take an upset for these guys to be involved in the semifinals, but it's not impossible.
5. The others. The above seven countries, and one lucky winner from the rest, will make up the quarterfinal pairs. If it isn't that simple, that's already an upset. Unless something goes terribly wrong for one of the big countries, these guys don't stand a chance.
**
Whew. There's our thoughts on where the teams stand. Now we'll break it down by groups, game by game.
Group A
USA - SUI
A potentially tough opener for the Americans. It'll be hard for the Americans to make their game gel right away, and the Swiss have the advantage of a longer prep time, and top-notch goaltending from Jonas Hiller. We expect the Americans to come out swinging, but it may get surprisingly sticky if the Swiss have their defensive game together. Remember, they did beat the Canadians in Torino's opening round.
It could turn into a blowout, but we expect a fairly close game. 3-1 or thereabouts to the Americans.
CAN - NOR
It's Canada's opening game in front of their home crowd, with something to prove to the fans. It's easy to see how this could get surprisingly difficult for the home side, but then again, it's Norway. Unless the Canadians fail hideously, we're thinking something between 5-2 or 8-1 to Canada.
USA - NOR
By any rights, this should be a massacre. Team USA should be getting into the swing of things by now, and the Norwegians will have less than 24 hours to recover from Canada. This should be the highest-scoring game in the tournament. 12-1.
SUI - CAN
On the one hand, vengeance for the opening round in Torino; on the other hand, if the Swiss can stick to their game, they can make this a frustrating experience for the Canadians. Having the Swiss stand them up in front of their home fans will really test Team Canada, so there is some slight potential for wackiness here, but really, it would be madness to bet on anything but a Canadian win in regulation. 5-2 Canada.
NOR - SUI
This one's going to Switzerland. If the Swiss can play their game, and they always do, they'll take this one home to finish third in their group. 4-1 Switzerland.
CAN - USA
And finally, the big one in Group A. It'll take more than one unlikely game finish for this not to be for the group win, so this is the big game. This is the young Americans' first big game in the tournament, and while it's going to be a hard-fought one, we think Canada will take this one 4-3 to emerge as group winner.
If this is what happens, we end up with a surprisingly neat group table:
Canada, 9 points
USA, 6
Switzerland, 3
Norway, 0
Alas, poor Switzerland and Norway, but them's the breaks.
**
Group B
RUS - LAT
Oh dear. Latvia's fallen far in the last few years, and quite frankly, the only thing that will keep the numbers down here is that the Russians rarely flog a dead horse. Even though it's Canadians who usually scream about not scoring gratuitious goals against an already beaten opponent, they're the ones who do that in international play, not the Russians. As far as we can tell, the Russians just can't be bothered. 6-0 Russia for the first shutout of the tournament; either Nabokov or Brizgalov will do.
CZE - SVK
This is a tough one to call, because this is Central Europe's equivalent of the Finland-Sweden game. As we understand it, there's some emotional involvement in these games, which makes them unpredictable. On the whole, we think Slovakia has a better team in these games than the Czechs, but the Czechs have superior goaltending and Jaromír Jágr. We confidently but unrealistically expect Gáborik to score five goals. As this is also the first game in the tournament for both teams, there is extra potential for weirdness. Realistically speaking, 3-2 Slovakia.
SVK - RUS
The real test of Slovakia's upset potential will be how they do against the Russians. This is the kind of game the Russians can lose; we don't think they will, but they could, so we'd be leery about betting on this one. The Slovaks don't bring a lot to the tournament, but they do have proven goal-scorers, and the Russians' biggest weakness is their defence. Which ever goalie plays for Russia may find himself somewhat beleaguered as this could turn into a proper scoring competition. 5-3 to Russia, if not even higher.
CZE - LAT
Despite all the mean things we've said about the Czechs, this one's a foregone conclusion. 8-1 to the Czechs.
LAT - SVK
Alas, poor Latvia: 24 hours after that beatdown they meet Zdeno Chára and Márian Gáborik, still irate over losing to Russia. This is a horrible group for the Latvians, as it's hard to see them being anything other than a punching bag. 6-2 to Slovakia.
RUS - CZE
The Russians are so going to beat them. The Czechs should go down with their boots on, but they should go down. The only caveat is that if the Russians have defensive weaknesses, and we think they might, Jágr and friends are the guys to take advantage of it. Given the Czechs' rubbish performance internationally of late, and the general bad vibe we're getting from their roster, we believe the Russians will take this in regulation at 5-2.
Again, a strangely neat group table:
Russia, 9
Slovakia, 6
Czech Republic, 3
Latvia, 0
Frankly, this will not happen. It's exceedingly unlikely that neither group will provide even a single overtime game, and we may even see a shootout, but this is a scenario, and this is what we'd bet on. Russia should be a lock to win the group and advance directly to the quarterfinals.
**
Group C
FIN - BLR
Finland's opening game, against a country that is in the running to finish dead last in the tournament. It'll end 5-2, because while Kiprusoff is perfectly capable of shutting out a team like Belarus, the rest of Team Finland isn't. This is the only game where Finland could potentially score a blowout, but we never do; instead, we'll screw up in our own end, miss out more scoring chances than you can possibly imagine, and generally play like Finland does. 5-2 to Finland.
SWE - GER
If Sweden is going to flop in this tournament, this is where they'll do it. Germany is usually a pretty solid team, notwithstanding last year's world champs debacle, and we really don't see much offensive brilliance in Team Sweden outside Nicklas Bäckström and possibly the Sedins, if they feel like it. These teams are really in different leagues, so the difference will swing to Sweden, but only at 3-1.
BLR - SWE
Oh, if only. As it is, though, Tommy Salo isn't on the team, and Belarus aren't what they used to be, so that particular brand of lightning won't strike twice in North America. After butting heads with Germany, the Swedes will relish the opportunity to relax a little and deal out some righteous vengeance to Belarus. Despite less than 24 hours of downtime, this will be the biggest-scoring game in Group C, with Sweden winning 8-1.
FIN - GER
If Team Finland takes this game seriously, and Kiprusoff plays, this is a foregone conclusion. If they take it easy, and Bäckström plays, it might get surprisingly tricky. We're confident Finland will win this, though, and as a World Cup throwback (remember when we last had one of those?), we're saying Finland takes this 3-0.
GER - BLR
4-1 Germany. The Germans grind out their normal defensive game, the Belarussians take penalties and the Germans hit them on the power play. This is the Germans' game, and they know it, especially after their rubbish performances at the world champs lately.
SWE - FIN
In Finnish hockey, this is El Clásico: Finland and Sweden. The underdog and the arch-nemesis, this time with the added bonus of being a repeat of the previous Olympic final. This actually makes us like Finland better for this: it's payback time! Frankly, this game will probably be Team Finland's high point in the tournament; it's all downhill from here on. Nothing motivates our guys like Sweden. Finland will beat Sweden, and the Finnish press will start planning the parade route. Finland takes it 5-2.
We think Finland will win the group and take a quarterfinal spot.
Finland, 9 points
Sweden, 6
Germany, 3
Belarus, 0
**
So in short, we think that this is going to be the neatest tournament ever, with no overtime games. We don't, really, but it's almost impossible to predict which of these games will end up in overtime. Some of them almost certainly will, but if we knew ahead of time which ones they are, we'd make a fair deal of money.
In general, our result predictions are rough ballpark guesses; even we wouldn't put money on the exact numbers or a small spread. If we really knew how to do this, we wouldn't give it away for free! So take this stuff with a grain of salt.
If the initial round plays out like we think, the four countries going directly to the quarterfinals are Russia, Canada, Finland and the United states. Here's the elimination round, game by game; at this point, calling scores gets a bit dodgy, so we'll just settle for telling you who goes through, and goal differentials don't matter for seeding purposes any more.
SWE-NOR
Sorry, guys, you're going to have a rough tournament. Sweden goes through. Of course, this would be a great opportunity for perhaps the most momentous failure in Swedish hockey history, so we'll be rooting for that; it's just that we don't believe in it.
SVK-LAT
Yeah. Slovakia.
CZE-BLR
Also a fairly foregone conclusion. The Czechs.
SUI-GER
This is really the only interesting game in the whole elimination round. These guys have done this before, and if the chips fall like we think they will, the hegemony of Central Europe is again up for grabs. We think Switzerland will take this, but it may go to overtime. In general, Switzerland has surpassed Germany decisively in international hockey over the past few years, and Switzerland will squeeze into the quarterfinals.
**
Quarterfinals
Now we get to the big games. These are the trickiest games to call in some ways, because it's a single elimination game.
RUS-SUI
Okay, this is the least big game. Realistically speaking, there's simply no way the Russians aren't going to win this. This is the best opportunity to ruin your entire tournament in one game, but they know that. Russia.
CAN-CZE
This is Canada's big chance to totally fail; if they're going to flop spectacularly, Torino-style, this is the spot. Certainly they're not going to. We don't think they're going to, so Canada wins. At the end of the day, the Czechs don't have a chance if Canada keeps it together.
FIN-SVK
Potentially tricky. They have superstars, but on the whole, we believe Finland has better goaltending, defense and forwards. If Team Finland plays like they usually do at the Olympics, they should simply be the better team. Finland wins.
USA-SWE
The biggest game of the quarterfinal round, and the biggest game of the tournament for the US team. For the Americans, this game is the difference between a disappointment and an upset. A classic matchup between aging, long-in-the-tooth defending champs Sweden and the young, dynamic, up-and-coming Americans. Both teams are perfectly capable of winning this, making this the hardest game of all to call. We think the US will take it, but it's going to be really close, and could go either way.
**
Semifinals
Russia - USA
This is the end of the road for the Americans. We say if the Russians come this far, they're going all the way. It's possible Team USA can win this, but we don't think so. Russia goes to the final.
Canada - Finland
The obvious answer is Canada, and we don't disagree. However, this is the one place in the tournament where Canada will have a real opportunity to come apart at the seams. This is the first really big game Team Canada has at the Olympics, and there's a very real chance that the easy tournament will have lulled them into a false sense of security, and their minds are already in the final. If there's one goalie in this tournament who can stop Team Canada, it's Kiprusoff. We can see him standing up the distracted Canadians, who then get frustrated, end up in the penalty box, and the Finnish power play makes them pay. However, even though we can see this happening, it doesn't mean that even we think it's particularly likely. Canada wins, but we might take them to overtime for it.
**
Medal games
Bronze medal game: Finland - USA
The eternal truth is that the bronze medal always goes to the team that wants it more. We think the Americans will want it more, leaving Finland in fourth place for the first time since Lake Placid. North America hasn't been kind to Team Finland on the whole, but then again, fourth place is better than most would give us.
Gold medal game: Russia - Canada
Boringly, our detailed game-by-game scenario ends up exactly where we were the minute the topic of this tournament was broached: a final matchup between Canada and Russia. Anything else is a huge upset. Those happen occasionally, but pretty much by definition, they're impossible to predict.
The way the tournament is set up, unless either Canada or Russia bungles catastrophically, this will be the first time they face each other at the Games. It should be a true classic for the ages, and because it should, the game is going to suck. We're going to say Alexander Radulov completes his hat trick in overtime to seal the win for Russia. Ovechkin, by the way, scores no points in the semi-final or final, but gets a couple of big hits in and blocks 12 shots.
**
Having said all this, the real final will be Sweden and the Czech Republic, and no-one will understand why. Seriously speaking, this is our monolithic game-by-game prediction. Because it's so precise, we do realize that just one unexpected result in the initial round will completely derail everything and make everything we've written totally worthless. Nonetheless, we're not just making this up out of whole cloth, but there's a painstaking process behind this, and we like processes.
The way we see it, the Russia-Canada final everyone's expecting seems unavoidable, and someone in the International Olympic Committee really, really hates Norway.
Sadly, we think Torino was Finland's best chance ever to win Olympic gold. The hurdles here are just too big for Team Finland to overcome, so Jere Lehtinen won't be joining the Triple Gold Club this year. However, Teemu Selänne is two points away from tying the all-time personal Olympic scoring record, with 35 points in 20 games before this year's tournament. The all-time record is held by Vlastimil Bubnik from the Czechoslovak national team, at 37 points (22+15) in 29 games, and we confidently expect Teemu to set a new record in Vancouver.
Here's a couple of throwaway predictions:
Team most likely to score 0 goals: Norway
Leading scorer: Patrick Kane
Best goaltender: Evgeni Nabokov
**
This is the first time we've done a prediction like this, and it was fun to put together. What actually happens is up to chance and the hockey gods; the only thing we really know is that it should be fun to watch. As brutal as it may turn out to be, we'll be back to check how well we did at the end of the tournament. Until then, enjoy the games!
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