Friday, February 20, 2009

NHL watchlist

Things to look out for in the coming weeks:

* the Montréal Canadiens. I watched the Pittsburgh game, and the whole thing was an unbelievable disaster. I don't think I've ever seen Saku Koivu be that invisible on the ice. The team played horribly, and Carbonneau stood behind the bench like a statue. Mute, unresponsive. He continues to play Price in goal despite easy goals and horrible numbers, and doesn't seem to be able to do anything to stop the Habs' tailspin. They're nearly out of the playoffs.

If the Habs drop their game against Ottawa today, look for something to happen. I can't imagine the Canadiens will let the team slide out of the playoffs in their centennial year. If a totally different Habs team doesn't take the ice on Saturday and thump the Senators 10-0, I can't believe they won't fire Carbonneau.

The alternative seems to be missing the playoffs.

* the Penguins. New coach Dan Bylsma got his first win against the never-showed-up Montréal Canadiens, but his tactics seem eerily reminiscient of Therien. Constant line-juggling in a game the Penguins were winning doesn't look like good coaching, it looks like desperation. If Bylsma's system works and the Habs stay in freefall, the Pens could contend for eighth spot in the conference.

It'll also be interesting to see what the Pens do on the deadline. More below.

**

Obviously, the trade deadline is coming up on March 4th. My picks for things to look forward to:

* the Habs, again. The loss of Robert Lang and the ongoing Alex Kovalev situation point toward a trade. The rumors are they're looking for a center. I still hope the Vincent Lecavalier deal goes through, but failing that, Olli Jokinen is another name that crops up.

* Florida should learn from what happened to Atlanta last year and trade Bouwmeester. Atlanta's express trip to the playoffs and out was not worth sacrificing a piece of the organization's future. If they still want to make the playoffs, they can swap Bouwmeester for a player who will be useful to them now, as well as future considerations. But they have to trade him.

* Speaking of Atlanta, Kovalchuk and intriguingly, Kari Lehtonen are rumored ot be on the way out. I for one can't imagine Kovalchuk would even consider resigning with Atlanta, and Lehtonen's job is going to be handed over to Pavelec. Lehtonen will be a restricted free agent this summer, and Kovalchuk has a year left on his contract. Whether Atlanta trades them now or next season remains to be seen. TSN sez the Flyers are interested in Lehtonen.

* Pittsburgh really ought to trade Ryan Whitney. With Gonchar back in the lineup and Goligoski on his way up, Whitney is the odd man out, especially with the way he's played since he returned from injury. Also, the Pens desperately need cap space. The Whitney trade could be one of the more interesting ones as the Pens may shoot for a scoring winger to play with Crosby as opposed to just prospects or draft picks. Many teams should be interested in Whitney as lately puck-moving defensemen are worth their weight in platinum in the NHL.

* What else Pittsburgh does will be interesting. There's no question the team has underperformed, but they're also nearly crippled by the amount of money sunk in their top players. Will Ray Shero blow up the team to the extent he can? Or will they just move Whitney and some other easily interchangeable pieces?

* Speaking of blowing up a team, what will the Senators do? They're playing better under new leadership, but their structural problems persist. One guy who might be on the move is Chris Neil, who'd be a welcome addition to any playoffbound team. Will they blow up the team? Probably not. Will they part with some of their more experienced players in exchange for a better future? They should. Doesn't mean they're going to.

(edit: last night they traded for Mike Comrie and Dan Campoli from the Islanders, giving up San José's first-round pick. Are they really planning to make a playoff push? Seems, erm, optimistic...)

* Anaheim is in for some decisions as well. Most of their experienced players from the Stanley Cup run will be free agents next summer. The question for Anaheim all season has been whether to make another run with this lineup or trade away some of the soon-to-be free agents. Nearly all of their potential UFAs have playoff experience and a Cup ring, so they'd be attractive commodities to playoff teams. For my money, Anaheim should trade. They have a good core of young players and will have to let go of a lot of the free agents anyway come summer, so the smart thing to do is to get a decent return for them and set up for another Cup run in a few years' time.

* look forward to the epic booing Sundin deserves, and will get, in the Air Canada Center today.

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