2010 playoffs: second round preview

The second round kicks off tonight with Game 1 of the Detroit - San Jose series, so we'll start with the West.

San Jose - Detroit

In all honesty, we expected San Jose to lose to Colorado already, so to make a long story short, Detroit in six. Granted, Phoenix took Detroit to Game 7, but in that game Detroit's big players stepped up. By contrast, while San Jose's "big three" were Team Canada's best line at the Olympics, they're notorious playoff underperformers. San Jose has pretty much taken over Detroit's old gimmick of winning the conference in the regular season and crashing out of the playoffs in the first rounds, so now's their chance. Detroit has more playoff experience, better individual players playing a better system, and better coaching.

Vancouver - Chicago

This blog firmly supports the Chicago Blackhawks for the Stanley Cup, if only because if they manage to win, then Toronto becomes the team with the longest time elapsed since last winning the Cup. We'd also love to see Marian Hossa make history by appearing in three consecutive Stanley Cup finals with a different team every time, and finally win it. That said, we have to reluctantly say the Canucks are going to win this one. It might well go to seven games, but we'll say Vancouver in six. The real question marks are, on the one hand, Luongo and the Canucks defense, and on the other hand, Chicago's youth. They had a good run last year, though, so it's entirely possible the Hawks will win this.

The trouble with handicapping the West is that because of the time difference, we rarely see many western games. For example, today's Wings-Sharks game is on at 4 a.m. local time. Watching them is a bit of a challenge, so our views on the West are most likely to be far less sound than those on the East.

Then again, we're frankly relieved that an illness that struck down 75% of this blog's contributors prevented us from embarrassing ourselves with the first round in the East. We would most likely have gone 1-3. That was a very, very silly first round.

Pittsburgh - Montréal

Question: Can the Habs pull off a second upset?
Answer: No.

Boston - Philadelphia

Who could have guessed we'd even see this series? Despite the brusque treatment I just gave the Habs, huge kudos to both the Habs and the Flyers for coming up big in the playoffs after a questionable regular season. Unfortunately, both of our NHL TV providers refused to show anything but the Caps and Pens, so quite frankly, we didn't see a single game of either the B's or the Flyers' series. I admit that the TV focus on S I D N E Y C R O S B Y pisses me off for this reason as well. Because of it, we don't know how Boston, the worst offensive team in the regular season, managed to get past Ryan Miller, or what the heck happened to the Devils, who I expected to see in the conference final against the Caps. So, working on the basis of the regular season, we have to say the Flyers in six. Bearing in mind that the Flyers' major weakness ever since the lockout has been team defense, it's not impossible that Boston will get their scoring going and power through. Any way you look at it, the fact that one of these teams is going to be in the conference final would have seemed incredible just a couple of weeks ago.

**

Speaking of team defense and the Caps, well, there it is, really. A lot of virtual ink was spilt (sent? posted? wired? transfer protocolled?) over the Capitals' goaltending before the playoffs started, but I keep insisting that with the Caps and the Flyers, the problem is not in goal. Yes, the Flyers have gone through something like 50 bargain-basement goaltenders since the lockout, and managed to give up the best guy they had for nothing to free agency. You'll find him in the previous post on this blog, if you're confused. Similarly, while Varlamov was great last year, Theodore had a catastrophic start this year and Varlamov wasn't that much better.

However, neither of the last two teams to win the Cup had anyone decisively better between the pipes. Fleury isn't nearly as good as the Canadians make him out to be; the simple fact that his team has to win playoff games against Ottawa 7-4 says enough. Also, I defy anyone to seriously argue that Chris Osgood was ever even one of the five best goaltenders in the Western Conference. I haven't got the issue right now because of logistical problems we're having, but Detroit's general manager explained their philosophy very simply after they won the Cup: "we don't spend money in goal." Team defense is much more important than goaltending, and it's defense that's letting both the Flyers and the Caps down.

With Washington, the problem is easier to address. If they hadn't made that idiotic giant deal with Michael Nylander, they could invest in a solid blueliner or two, and be ready to make a real run for the Cup. The fact that they made it to the conference finals last year and were only eliminated with considerable help from the referees is testament to the sheer ability of their forwards and offensive D, but it's the back end that's letting them down. In the Flyers' case, the problem is slightly stranger. Ever since the lockout, it's seemed that no matter who they have on the blueline, their defense plays terribly. The problem has survived several changes of personnel both on the bench and behind it, so it's really hard to understand what causes it, but it persists nonetheless. Having just said that the Flyers will win their series against the Bruins, this is what could come back to bite them.

I titled my previous hockey post "He ain't all that", referring to Cindy, erm, Sidney Crosby. Overall the first round series against the Sens is a good indicator. Yes, he had 14 points in 6 games. One of the 6 goals was a gamewinner, and in the decisive sixth game of the series, Crosby had no points and was a -2. Even nhl.com had to admit he was rubbish, but they inexplicably maintained that Malkin was even worse. Malkin had a power play assist, and despite having more even-strength ice time than Crosby, he was +0. In that game, the Pens were behind 3-0 at one point. Who started the comeback? Matt Cooke. The anointed messiah of hockey was nowhere to be found.

Even though I maintain the Pens are given special treatment by the league, there's no question they're a good team. Ever since the NHL selected Crosby as its "face", the media has focused on him to a ridiculous extent. Even in the nhl.com recap of Game 6, in which Crosby did nothing, he's the first player who gets quoted. Ever since he was made captain, the media can give him credit for everything the Pens do, because it's all supposedly due to his "leadership". When we know that he's a kid barely in his twenties with a monstrous ego problem, this seems more than a bit unlikely. But intanglibles aside, it's enough to look at any of the big games the Pens play. Quite simply, who scores big goals for the Pens? The third and fourth line. The people who decide big games for the Pens are the likes of Matt Cooke and Pascal Dupuis.

All the sound and fury about Cindy manage to obscure the fact that what lifts the Penguins above many other teams in the league isn't Cindy or even Malkin, but their third and fourth lines. In big games, it isn't Crosby or Malkin who step up to score big goals, but the third and fourth liners. The only big goal Crosby's ever scored was at the Olympics, and quite frankly, there's no way that shot should have gotten past Miller. Crosby is an egoist, pure and simple. He does ridiculous stuff like his stunts in the Pens' last regular season game against the Islanders; CBC showed him skating two complete circles around the Isles' zone on the power play, desperately looking for a scoring chance to win the Rocket. His scoring mostly comes in bunches, especially when his team is running up the score. I thought that game against the Isles was despicable. But whatever you think of Crosby, I maintain it's a fact that the constant focus on him leaves the guys who actually put in the hard work and score the game-winning goals in the playoffs in the shadows. And that's just fine with the superstar.

The funny thing is that I'm basically reiterating a very Canadian hockey ethic here. Running up the score, putting yourself before the team and not giving credit to the muckers and grinders is exactly what Canadian "old time hockey" fans accuse "Europeans" of. Yet when Cindy does all these things, they idolize him. There's a fantastic double standard in Canadian hockey culture when it comes to their superstars, and Crosby is the ultimate example.