Showing posts with label Oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oil. Show all posts
Monday, April 23, 2012
Investors Should Avoid Oil and Alternatives
An Interview with Dr. Marc Faber
As the world economy teeters on the brink and rising oil prices threaten to de-rail the delicate roots of recovery Oilprice.com asked legendary investor Dr. Marc Faber to join us and give his views on high gasoline prices, the shale boom, alternative energy, developments in the Middle East and much more.
In the interview Mark talks about the following:
• Why investors shouldn't buy oil right now
• Why alternative energy investments are a bad idea for investors
• Why Iran should be allowed Nuclear weapons
• Which direction oil prices could go and why
• Why Investors should be taking money off the table NOW.
• Why we shouldn't be pinning all our hopes on natural gas
• Why selling down the strategic petroleum reserve to reduce oil prices is a useless strategy.
• Why the shale boom won't affect US foreign policy priorities
• Why Obama is a disappointing president
Dr. Faber is a very well known commentator throughout the investment community. He regularly appears on CNBC and is a member of the Barrons round table.
Marc is the editor and publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, which is a very popular investment newsletter that highlights unusual investment opportunities for its subscribers. You can find out more about the Gloom Boom & Doom Report at Marc's website: www.GloomBoomDoom.com.
OilPrice.com: A number of our readers have been enquiring about the recent oil price increases, where a few weeks ago we saw them rise to a ten month high. Where do you see oil prices going from here, and what do you see as the main reasons for the rapid increase?
Marc Faber: I think there is a risk that oil prices will go much higher. At the same time, the bullish consensus on oil is now at one of the most elevated levels it's ever been. In other words, from a contrarian point of view, you shouldn't buy oil right now. I think it may go down somewhat. In general, if trouble breaks out in the Middle East, or if there is a war, I think the price of oil could go much higher.
OilPrice.com: What are your 3-5 year projections for oil prices?
Marc Faber: Well, you'll have to give me a second. I need to call Mr. Ben Bernanke and ask him how much money he will print. Commodity prices were in a bear market from 1980 to 1998, and since then they've gone up. But because of expansionary monetary policies and artificially low interest rates they have increased more than would have otherwise been the case. We don't know exactly how long this asset bubble will last - but say if you had interest rates in real terms, of five percent, instead of negative five percent, then I think all commodity prices, including gold, would be lower.
OilPrice.com: Obama is being pressured by the Democrats to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to flood the market with a large supply of oil in an attempt to drive down prices. Some commentators seem to think that this will help, although only in the short term because low supply isn't the cause of the high prices. Do you think it's sensible advice to use the reserves now to lower short term prices or should Obama remain strong and only use the stockpile for what it was designed for?
Marc Faber: I think selling down the reserves would be a useless strategy as one of the main reasons prices are rising is due to international tensions. It's possible for an increase in supplies to drive down the price a little bit. But in emerging economies like China and India, the demand continues to go up. Now, it may not go up every year by the same quantity it did in the last 3 years, because in the last 15 years, oil demand in China tripled, from 3 million barrels a day to 9 million barrels a day. So it's conceivable that in a recessionary environment in China, oil demand will not go up substantially for one or two years. But because the per capita consumption is so low in countries like China and India compared to say the U.S. and Japan and Western Europe, I think the trend will continue to increase.
OilPrice.com: There's a great deal of political theater going on around the Keystone XL pipeline. Do you see the pipeline as being essential to U.S. energy security and something that has to be pushed through at some point?
Marc Faber: Yes, I think it would be important to have the pipeline. But as you say, there's a lot of political pressure and so forth. I think it would be very desirable for the U.S. to become energy self- sufficient. Some observers and forecasters say they can achieve this goal within ten years, due to advances in natural gas extraction. I don't believe it, but I have to respect the view of some experts.
OilPrice.com: The media has been full of reports on the coming shale gas boom. What are your thoughts on shale gas? Is it the energy savior we are hoping for?
Marc Faber: I doubt it. But as long as the market believes it, we have to translate every forecast and every view into investment opportunities. I think a lot of people believe in shale Gas's potential and so this may underpin some strength in equities and currencies. But as I said, I don't believe it.
OilPrice.com: Do you think the shale boom could lead to a change in U.S. foreign policy priorities?
Marc Faber: Well, I don't really believe it. But as you know, Mr. Obama has engaged in more foreign policy initiatives in Asia. For what, I'm not quite sure. The thinking is in the U.S. is that China is a threat. Therefore, they have to increase their cooperation with Asian countries, such as India and the Philippines.
Personally, I think it's an ill-timed move, because I don't think that China has any military ambitions in Asia. But put yourself into the chair of China's leadership. What is the top priority? China obtains 95% of its oil from the Middle East. The top priority is to make sure that this oil continues to flow and that the supply is secure. So they have to secure the oil shipping lanes, from the Middle East, past the southern tip of India, through the Straits of Malacca, up the Vietnamese coast, into China.
Each time they do that or attempt to do that, America and it allies in Asia perceive it as a threat. So the tensions increase.
OilPrice.com: You just mentioned that you don't believe China has any military ambitions in Asia, but we're seeing quite a lot of tension in the South China Seas, especially the Spratly Islands and the energy resources located there. How do you see the situation playing out between China and its small neighbors in this region who all have a good claim on the resources?
Marc Faber: As I just mentioned, China's a huge country. They have certain views about territories in Asia, and I think the U.S. would not react particularly positively if say China or Russia or any other nation had numerous military and naval bases, in the Caribbean or in the Pacific, and military bases in Canada and Mexico.
You have to look at the world from the perspective of the Chinese. I'm not saying that because I'm super-bull about China. On the contrary, I think the Chinese economy faces numerous problems. But I'm saying that if you put yourself into their position, a top priority is to secure a regular supply of oil, iron ore, and copper. If you look at the Kondratiev Cycle where Kondratiev said it's not a business cycle. It's a price cycle, and certain things happen during the downward wave, and certain things happen during the upward wave.
During the upward wave, we have rising commodity prices, which is a symptom of shortages. Then countries become more belligerent, because they begin to be concerned about the supply of commodities, and so tensions increase.
I'm not saying war will break out tomorrow. I'm just saying the conditions have improved.
OilPrice.com: Aside from the South China Seas, where do you see the potential flash points in the world over resources?
Marc Faber: Well, I think a big potential flash point is obviously the Middle East and Central Asia, because neither Russia nor China wants permanent American military bases in Central Asia and to be encircled. The Chinese are encircled by the Americans in the Pacific with naval bases, plus the Americans have 11 aircraft carriers. The Chinese have just one. Plus, in the last 12 months, Mr. Obama has made initiatives to have India as a strategic ally. The result of this is that China, which always had good relationships with Pakistan, has strengthened their relationships with Pakistan. This of course has increased tensions in the region.
OilPrice.com: Moving off fossil fuels, what role do you see renewable energy playing in the future? Do you think government should help innovation in this area?
Marc Faber: This is a very difficult question to answer. Basically, I'm convinced that, over time, to drill a hole in the ground in the Middle East or in other emerging economies and then bringing that oil through a pipeline onto a ship into the countries that consume oil is not an elegant solution to the energy problem. I think eventually this will go away. But in the meantime, alternative sources of energy are extremely expensive. Unless the oil price collapses to like $50, most alternative sources of energy will not be profitable. If someone says to me, we need alternative sources of energy for security reasons, yes, I agree. But for profitability I doubt it.
OilPrice.com: As an investor then, are there any renewable sectors you're bullish on? Or would you stay away from the space entirely?
Marc Faber: I would stay away from it.
OilPrice.com: Following the Fukushima disaster Japan has now shut down 54 nuclear power plants. The population's trust in nuclear energy has been shattered – but do you think this is only temporary and how would Japan make up the energy shortfall - as before Fukushima Japan met around a third of its energy demand with nuclear?
Marc Faber: Well, I guess they'll lean towards more natural gas and more oil so they can offset this shortfall of nuclear energy. Now I don't think that this will change the nuclear energy prospects long term in the world, because other countries like India and China will build their numerous nuclear energy plants. In the case of Japan, I think the power plants which had the problems were antiquated. In other words, they were not up to modern standards.
OilPrice.com: Iran has finally offered to resume talks about its nuclear program and has agreed to allow UN inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to visit its Parchin military complex where a nuclear weapons program is suspected of be being developed. How do you see events developing here and how can investors protect themselves from an escalation in this region?
Marc Faber: Well, if there are escalations, then obviously you have to be long, oil and gold. My sense is that the Iranians are playing the same game the Japanese played in the '70s and '80s. They always negotiated but never did anything about the changing balances - they just want to delay the hour of truth. Every day, I think the Iranians are getting closer to having nuclear weapons. I can understand why. The whole world is hostile towards Iran, and they are encircled.
In the west, France has nuclear weapons and Britain and the U.S., and their neighbor Israel, towards the west. Then in the east, India and Pakistan and of course China. So why shouldn't they have nuclear weapons?
Mind you, either there is all around abandonment of nuclear weapons by all the powers, or every country should be allowed to have them. We in the Western World, we have the misguided belief that we are there to judge which countries may have and which countries should not have nuclear weapons.
But maybe our view is wrong. My view is that if I were looking after Iran, for sure I would want to have nuclear weapons. For sure!
OilPrice.com: Okay. So on to investments - you've mentioned oil and gold, but which other sectors are you bullish on, and what would you advise investors to avoid?
Marc Faber: Basically, since March 2009, equities have doubled in value by and large. Some have gone up more than 100%, some a little bit less, we've had a huge bull market. Last year, almost a year ago on May 2nd, the S&P reached a high of 1,370. Then we dropped into August and into October, and we bottomed out on the S&P at 1,074 on October 4th. Since then, we have a 25% rally. The mood in October and November of last year was extremely negative.
I think this is the time to be rather cautious. Personally, if I had heavy exposure to equities, I would take some money off the table.
OilPrice.com: Where do you see the best opportunities for investors in Asia at present?
Marc Faber: Right now, for the next one or two months, I don't think that stocks will go up a lot. I personally think they will correct. But long term, I still like Asia. My concern is if the Chinese economy slows down meaningfully that we could have economic weakness spreading around Asia as well, as well as in countries that supply commodities to China, like Australia, Brazil, Argentina, and so forth.
Right now, say for the next two months, I'm very cautious.
OilPrice.com: I was looking through some of your previous interviews as well, and in one of them, you mentioned Barack Obama. You said he was by far one of the worst presidents that the U.S. has had, and that you still believe he'll be re- elected. In what ways do you think he is unsuitable as a president? I mean, are you fundamentally against his ideas and position on certain topics?
Marc Faber: I don't want to get into an overly political discussion, but I think that first of all, we have in the U.S. and elsewhere highly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, but we have restrictive regulatory policies. In other words, Obamacare is a big problem for many medium sized and even large companies, because they don't know exactly how much it will cost them. That has retarded hirings of people.
Mr. Obama has intervened into the economy massively, left, right, and center. Every government intervention has consequences. Just to give you an example, the U.S. government debt - I'm only speaking about the government debt, not the prime debt - has gone from essentially zero 200 years ago, to a trillion dollars in 1980.
By the year 2000, we were roughly at $5 trillion. Now in 12 years, we've gone to close to $16 trillion. That excludes the unfounded liabilities. Under Mr. Obama, the fiscal deficit has exploded.
The big question is: Will we ever, in the U.S., have a fiscal deficit of less than $1 trillion or $1.5 trillion? I don't see it. Under Mr. Obama, spending has gone up and tax revenue has gone down. Change, if there was any change under Mr. Obama, it was for the worse. In my view, he's a very disappointing president.
OilPrice.com: Marc, thank you for taking the time to speak with us. It's been a pleasure speaking with you.
Marc Faber: It was my pleasure.
Article originally published at: Oil, Alternatives, and Nuclear Weapons - An Interview with Marc Faber
Interviewer: James Stafford, Editor Oilprice.com
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Fuzzy Math & The Keystone XL Pipeline
Robert Sterling, Konformist.com
Whenever you hear right-wing poiticians and mouthpieces demanding support for a project with the supposed reasoning of "jobs" it should rightfully be met with absolute skepticism. These cretins could care less for the working man, so when they feign support for workers, it is invariably a cynical exploitation on behalf of a big business gift.
To sell the public on the Keystone XL Pipeline, the right has put out numerous claims of job creation. The least controversial number is 20,000, and that one is even dubious at best. To begin with, the term "job" is defined by TransCanada (the company behind the XL Pipeline and the supplier of the 20K number) as "job years" which means that if the project takes the estimated two years, it will create actually half of the 13,000 "job year" number of jobs in construcion. Meanwhile, as for the 7,000 other "job years" created in manufacturing, it is likely most of this work will be done outside the US. So what is the more likely number of jobs created by the XL Pipeline, 20,000 or 6,500? According the the US State Department's own study, the actual total number on permanent jobs (not temporary during the construction) created by the Pipeline will be twenty.
Of course, whether it be 20 or 6,500 or even 20,000, that's a pretty small number of jobs for such a large project, so TransCanada had to juice the numbers. One study, supplied by TransCanada consultant Ray Perryman, proclaimed that "effects over the life of the project were found to include $20.931 billion in total spending, $9.605 billion in output, and 118,935 person-years of employment." (Note again that the number is in "job years" again.) In the same study, Perryman declares: "Under 'normal' oil price assumptions equivalent to the average for all of 2007, The Perryman Group found the gains in US business activity stemming from a permanent increase in stable oil supplies to include $100.144 billion in total spending, $29.048 billion in output, and 250,348 permanent jobs." This has lead the US Chamber of Commerce to support the project, citing the 250K figure.
(Oddly, the Chamber of Commerce doesn't cite the highest number of jobs estimated by Perryman to be created by the XL Pipeline, that of 553,235 jobs. The reason for this is that number is based on "the high-price case in which costs per barrel reach the peak levels observed in the summer of 2008." Which means the more outrageous oil prices get, the more supposedly beneficial the XL Pipeline is.)
Again, whether the number is 118,935, or 250,348, or even 553,235, the numbers should be met with doubt, as they are supplied by a consultant for a company trying to sell public and politicians on a project. The Global Labor Institute looked at the numbers cited by Perryman, and concluded they are bogus To begin with, of the $7 billion tied to the project, $3 to $4 billion has already been spent: thus there is no multiplier gain for this money if the XL Pipeline is approved. Further, the number assumes a rather generous 18 "job years" created per million dollars spent: the GLI goes with the more reasonable number of 11 "job years" per million. The end result of this simple math equation is a creation of 33,000 to 44,000 "job years" by the pipeline and not 118,000, which would create a maximum of 22K temporary jobs at best over the two years of the project, and 11K at worst if the project takes an extra year to complete.
As for the 250K to 550K numbers that TransCanada pushes, the GLI notes in response that it may very well be a long-term job killer. The big four problems with the project:
* Higher Fuel Prices: "KXL will increase the price of heavy crude oil in the Midwest by almost $2 to $4 billion annually, and escalating for several years. It will do this by diverting major volumes of Tar Sands oil now supplying the Midwest refineries, so it can be sold at higher prices to the Gulf Coast and export markets. As a result, consumers in the Midwest could be paying 10 to 20 cents more per gallon for gasoline and diesel fuel, adding up to $5 billion to the annual US fuel bill."
* Economic Costs Related to Air Pollution and Carbon Emissions: "It is a well known fact that if emissions rise, air quality deteriorates, and health problems increase. Respiratory and other illnesses reduce both labor productivity and labor market
participation, as well as the educational performance of those exposed to airborne particulates."
* Impact on the Green Economy and Green Jobs: "It is also important to consider the jobs that may not be created as a result of KXL. Many believe its approval will likely have a chilling effect on those in the private sector and in public policy who have positioned themselves on the cutting edge of the green economy. Small business organizations such as the Green Chamber of Commerce and the Green Business Network (representing more than 5,000 enterprises) agree that KXL will impede progress toward green and sustainable economic renewal."
* Environmental Damage: "The industry has ignored or dismissed fears that the KXL pipeline will have a serious impact on our environment through inland spills or spills into fresh water supplies (principally the Ogallala Aquifer) or through increases in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and other forms of pollution. In so doing, it has no need to acknowledge that environmental damage is invariably a job killer. Cleaning up spills and other environmental damage may create some jobs, but only at the expense of jobs in other parts of the economy."
Of these four job killers, environmental damage would on the surface appear to be the greatest X-factor, but in reality, it's not. The reason is because environmental damage from the XL Pipeline shouldn't be viewed as a potential risk, but a certainty. As PoliticusUSA.com noted, TransCanada "predicted that one of their existing pipelines would produce one spill every seven years, but it has produced 12 spills in less than one year. Even with one spill, over 1,000 rivers will be adversely impacted as well as the Ogallala Aquifer that supplies drinking water to 2 million Americans and is the primary source of groundwater for 20% of America’s agriculture production." Talk about a job killer.
If there is any X-factor here, it's the elephant in the room that strangely isn't being mentioned: terrorism. Allegedly, according to our national security establishment and its mouthpieces, the threat of al Qaeda and other terror orgs is so great, we need fingers stuck up our ass in airports in order to feel safe. Yet somehow, the possibility of an attack on a pipeline project ranging from our Canadian border to Texas is just crazy talk.
Sadly, being a betting man, I suspect the Keystone XL Pipeline will be built. This is because the GOP is using its usual strategy of frothing like mad dogs, which will likely soon be met by a predictable spineless cave by Obama. The only thing that will stop this project is if opponents stop relying on Obama's nonexistent backbone and start putting pressure on him and other politicians to fight the money behind this con. It could happen (certainly the Occupy Movement is evolving into something more than Democratic Party apologists that represent too much of progressive leadership) but would require a radical change in our current political paradigm. Let's hope that on this bet I am wrong.
Sources:
The Impact of Developing the Keystone XL Pipeline Project on Business Activity in the US. The Perryman Group June 2010 <http://www.perrymangroup.com/reports/TransCanada.pdf>.
Kesslerat, Glenn. "Keystone Pipeline Jobs Claims: A Bipartisan Fumble." Washington Post 14 December 2011 <http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/keystone-pipeline-jobs-claims-a-bipartisan-fumble/2011/12/13/gIQAwxFisO_blog.html>.
Pipe dreams? Jobs Gained, Jobs Lost by the Construction of Keystone XL. Global Labor Institute September 2011 <http://www.ilr.cornell.edu/globallaborinstitute/research/upload/GLI_KeystoneXL_Reportpdf.pdf>.
Rmuse. "The SEC Mulls An Investigation Calls Grow For John Boehner To Resign." PoliticusUSA 28 January 2012 <http://www.politicususa.com/en/john-boehner-resign>.
Tullis, Paul. "The Questionable Economics of the Keystone XL Pipeline." Businessweek 17 February 2012 <http://www.businessweek.com/top-news/the-questionable-economics-of-the-keystone-xl-pipeline-02172012.html>.
Whenever you hear right-wing poiticians and mouthpieces demanding support for a project with the supposed reasoning of "jobs" it should rightfully be met with absolute skepticism. These cretins could care less for the working man, so when they feign support for workers, it is invariably a cynical exploitation on behalf of a big business gift.
To sell the public on the Keystone XL Pipeline, the right has put out numerous claims of job creation. The least controversial number is 20,000, and that one is even dubious at best. To begin with, the term "job" is defined by TransCanada (the company behind the XL Pipeline and the supplier of the 20K number) as "job years" which means that if the project takes the estimated two years, it will create actually half of the 13,000 "job year" number of jobs in construcion. Meanwhile, as for the 7,000 other "job years" created in manufacturing, it is likely most of this work will be done outside the US. So what is the more likely number of jobs created by the XL Pipeline, 20,000 or 6,500? According the the US State Department's own study, the actual total number on permanent jobs (not temporary during the construction) created by the Pipeline will be twenty.
Of course, whether it be 20 or 6,500 or even 20,000, that's a pretty small number of jobs for such a large project, so TransCanada had to juice the numbers. One study, supplied by TransCanada consultant Ray Perryman, proclaimed that "effects over the life of the project were found to include $20.931 billion in total spending, $9.605 billion in output, and 118,935 person-years of employment." (Note again that the number is in "job years" again.) In the same study, Perryman declares: "Under 'normal' oil price assumptions equivalent to the average for all of 2007, The Perryman Group found the gains in US business activity stemming from a permanent increase in stable oil supplies to include $100.144 billion in total spending, $29.048 billion in output, and 250,348 permanent jobs." This has lead the US Chamber of Commerce to support the project, citing the 250K figure.
(Oddly, the Chamber of Commerce doesn't cite the highest number of jobs estimated by Perryman to be created by the XL Pipeline, that of 553,235 jobs. The reason for this is that number is based on "the high-price case in which costs per barrel reach the peak levels observed in the summer of 2008." Which means the more outrageous oil prices get, the more supposedly beneficial the XL Pipeline is.)
Again, whether the number is 118,935, or 250,348, or even 553,235, the numbers should be met with doubt, as they are supplied by a consultant for a company trying to sell public and politicians on a project. The Global Labor Institute looked at the numbers cited by Perryman, and concluded they are bogus To begin with, of the $7 billion tied to the project, $3 to $4 billion has already been spent: thus there is no multiplier gain for this money if the XL Pipeline is approved. Further, the number assumes a rather generous 18 "job years" created per million dollars spent: the GLI goes with the more reasonable number of 11 "job years" per million. The end result of this simple math equation is a creation of 33,000 to 44,000 "job years" by the pipeline and not 118,000, which would create a maximum of 22K temporary jobs at best over the two years of the project, and 11K at worst if the project takes an extra year to complete.
As for the 250K to 550K numbers that TransCanada pushes, the GLI notes in response that it may very well be a long-term job killer. The big four problems with the project:
* Higher Fuel Prices: "KXL will increase the price of heavy crude oil in the Midwest by almost $2 to $4 billion annually, and escalating for several years. It will do this by diverting major volumes of Tar Sands oil now supplying the Midwest refineries, so it can be sold at higher prices to the Gulf Coast and export markets. As a result, consumers in the Midwest could be paying 10 to 20 cents more per gallon for gasoline and diesel fuel, adding up to $5 billion to the annual US fuel bill."
* Economic Costs Related to Air Pollution and Carbon Emissions: "It is a well known fact that if emissions rise, air quality deteriorates, and health problems increase. Respiratory and other illnesses reduce both labor productivity and labor market
participation, as well as the educational performance of those exposed to airborne particulates."
* Impact on the Green Economy and Green Jobs: "It is also important to consider the jobs that may not be created as a result of KXL. Many believe its approval will likely have a chilling effect on those in the private sector and in public policy who have positioned themselves on the cutting edge of the green economy. Small business organizations such as the Green Chamber of Commerce and the Green Business Network (representing more than 5,000 enterprises) agree that KXL will impede progress toward green and sustainable economic renewal."
* Environmental Damage: "The industry has ignored or dismissed fears that the KXL pipeline will have a serious impact on our environment through inland spills or spills into fresh water supplies (principally the Ogallala Aquifer) or through increases in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and other forms of pollution. In so doing, it has no need to acknowledge that environmental damage is invariably a job killer. Cleaning up spills and other environmental damage may create some jobs, but only at the expense of jobs in other parts of the economy."
Of these four job killers, environmental damage would on the surface appear to be the greatest X-factor, but in reality, it's not. The reason is because environmental damage from the XL Pipeline shouldn't be viewed as a potential risk, but a certainty. As PoliticusUSA.com noted, TransCanada "predicted that one of their existing pipelines would produce one spill every seven years, but it has produced 12 spills in less than one year. Even with one spill, over 1,000 rivers will be adversely impacted as well as the Ogallala Aquifer that supplies drinking water to 2 million Americans and is the primary source of groundwater for 20% of America’s agriculture production." Talk about a job killer.
If there is any X-factor here, it's the elephant in the room that strangely isn't being mentioned: terrorism. Allegedly, according to our national security establishment and its mouthpieces, the threat of al Qaeda and other terror orgs is so great, we need fingers stuck up our ass in airports in order to feel safe. Yet somehow, the possibility of an attack on a pipeline project ranging from our Canadian border to Texas is just crazy talk.
Sadly, being a betting man, I suspect the Keystone XL Pipeline will be built. This is because the GOP is using its usual strategy of frothing like mad dogs, which will likely soon be met by a predictable spineless cave by Obama. The only thing that will stop this project is if opponents stop relying on Obama's nonexistent backbone and start putting pressure on him and other politicians to fight the money behind this con. It could happen (certainly the Occupy Movement is evolving into something more than Democratic Party apologists that represent too much of progressive leadership) but would require a radical change in our current political paradigm. Let's hope that on this bet I am wrong.
Sources:
The Impact of Developing the Keystone XL Pipeline Project on Business Activity in the US. The Perryman Group June 2010 <http://www.perrymangroup.com/reports/TransCanada.pdf>.
Kesslerat, Glenn. "Keystone Pipeline Jobs Claims: A Bipartisan Fumble." Washington Post 14 December 2011 <http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/keystone-pipeline-jobs-claims-a-bipartisan-fumble/2011/12/13/gIQAwxFisO_blog.html>.
Pipe dreams? Jobs Gained, Jobs Lost by the Construction of Keystone XL. Global Labor Institute September 2011 <http://www.ilr.cornell.edu/globallaborinstitute/research/upload/GLI_KeystoneXL_Reportpdf.pdf>.
Rmuse. "The SEC Mulls An Investigation Calls Grow For John Boehner To Resign." PoliticusUSA 28 January 2012 <http://www.politicususa.com/en/john-boehner-resign>.
Tullis, Paul. "The Questionable Economics of the Keystone XL Pipeline." Businessweek 17 February 2012 <http://www.businessweek.com/top-news/the-questionable-economics-of-the-keystone-xl-pipeline-02172012.html>.
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Russians & North Koreans in Iran: Collateral Damage?
From OilPrice.com:
As the drums for direct military intervention to derail Iran’s purported covert military nuclear weapons program beat louder in both Jerusalem and Washington, an overlooked issue is the possibility of international “collateral damage,” to use the Pentagon’s favourite euphemism for civilian casualties.
On 14 November South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo stated, "Hundreds of North Korean scientists and engineers are working at about 10 nuclear and missile facilities in Iran, including Natanz, The North Koreans are apparently rotated every six months." Russian technicians also remain at Iran’s first nuclear electrical energy facility, Bushehr. So, any aerial strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities could result in significant numbers of dead Russian and North Korean specialists as “collateral damage,” with all the diplomatic uncertainties that might ensue from Moscow and Pyongyang as the body bags start arriving home.
The https://www.cia.gov/ website, which listed the report, describes the Chosun Ilbo website as “conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic, anti-North Korea, and generally pro-U.S.”
For those looking for more smoking guns, Japan’s Sankei Shimbun reports that among the Iranian sites the North Koreans have been involved in are three research centres carrying out simulations of how to trigger nuclear weapons.
The news complicates the situation for advocates of a “clean” surgical strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Airstrike Against Iranian Nuclear Facilities Could Kill 100s of North Koreans and Russians John Daly
Wednesday, 16 November 2011
http://oilprice.com/Geo-Politics/Middle-East/Airstrike-Against-Iranian-Nuclear-Facilities-Could-Kill-100s-of-North-Koreans-and-Russians.html
As the drums for direct military intervention to derail Iran’s purported covert military nuclear weapons program beat louder in both Jerusalem and Washington, an overlooked issue is the possibility of international “collateral damage,” to use the Pentagon’s favourite euphemism for civilian casualties.
On 14 November South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo stated, "Hundreds of North Korean scientists and engineers are working at about 10 nuclear and missile facilities in Iran, including Natanz, The North Koreans are apparently rotated every six months." Russian technicians also remain at Iran’s first nuclear electrical energy facility, Bushehr. So, any aerial strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities could result in significant numbers of dead Russian and North Korean specialists as “collateral damage,” with all the diplomatic uncertainties that might ensue from Moscow and Pyongyang as the body bags start arriving home.
The https://www.cia.gov/ website, which listed the report, describes the Chosun Ilbo website as “conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic, anti-North Korea, and generally pro-U.S.”
For those looking for more smoking guns, Japan’s Sankei Shimbun reports that among the Iranian sites the North Koreans have been involved in are three research centres carrying out simulations of how to trigger nuclear weapons.
The news complicates the situation for advocates of a “clean” surgical strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Airstrike Against Iranian Nuclear Facilities Could Kill 100s of North Koreans and Russians John Daly
Wednesday, 16 November 2011
http://oilprice.com/Geo-Politics/Middle-East/Airstrike-Against-Iranian-Nuclear-Facilities-Could-Kill-100s-of-North-Koreans-and-Russians.html
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Gadhafi’s Gold-money Plan Would Have Devastated Dollar
Alex Newman Friday, 11 November 2011
http://thenewamerican.com/economy/markets-mainmenu-45/9743-gadhafis-gold-money-plan-would-have-devastated-dollar
It remains unclear exactly why or how the Gadhafi regime went from “a model” and an “important ally” to the next target for regime change in a period of just a few years. But after claims of “genocide” as the justification for NATO intervention were disputed by experts, several other theories have been floated.
Oil, of course, has been mentioned frequently — Libya is Africa‘s largest oil producer. But one possible reason in particular for Gadhafi’s fall from grace has gained significant traction among analysts and segments of the non-Western media: central banking and the global monetary system.
According to more than a few observers, Gadhafi’s plan to quit selling Libyan oil in U.S. dollars — demanding payment instead in gold-backed “dinars” (a single African currency made from gold) — was the real cause. The regime, sitting on massive amounts of gold, estimated at close to 150 tons, was also pushing other African and Middle Eastern governments to follow suit.
And it literally had the potential to bring down the dollar and the world monetary system by extension, according to analysts. French President Nicolas Sarkozy reportedly went so far as to call Libya a “threat” to the financial security of the world. The “Insiders” were apparently panicking over Gadhafi’s plan.
"Any move such as that would certainly not be welcomed by the power elite today, who are responsible for controlling the world's central banks,” noted financial analyst Anthony Wile, editor of the free market-oriented Daily Bell, in an interview with RT. “So yes, that would certainly be something that would cause his immediate dismissal and the need for other reasons to be brought forward [for] removing him from power."
According to Wile, Gadhafi’s plan would have strengthened the whole continent of Africa in the eyes of economists backing sound money — not to mention investors. But it would have been especially devastating for the U.S. economy, the American dollar, and particularly the elite in charge of the system.
“The central banking Ponzi scheme requires an ever-increasing base of demand and the immediate silencing of those who would threaten its existence,” Wile noted in a piece entitled “Gaddafi Planned Gold Dinar, Now Under Attack” earlier this year. “Perhaps that is what the hurry [was] in removing Gaddafi in particular and those who might have been sympathetic to his monetary idea.”
Investor newsletters and commentaries have been buzzing for months with speculation about the link between Gadhafi’s gold dinar and the NATO-backed overthrow of the Libyan regime. Conservative analysts pounced on the potential relationship, too.
“In 2009 — in his capacity as head of the African Union — Libya's Moammar Gadhafi had proposed that the economically crippled continent adopt the ‘Gold Dinar,’” noted Ilana Mercer in an August opinion piece for WorldNetDaily. “I do not know if Col. Gadhafi continued to agitate for ditching the dollar and adopting the Gold Dinar — or if the Agitator from Chicago got wind of Gadhafi's (uncharacteristic) sanity about things monetary.”
But if Arab and African nations had begun adopting a gold-backed currency, it would have had major repercussions for debt-laden Western governments that would be far more significant than the purported “democratic” uprisings sweeping the region this year. And it would have spelled big trouble for the elite who benefit from “freshly counterfeited funny-money,” Mercer pointed out.
“Had Gadhafi sparked a gold-driven monetary revolution, he would have done well for his own people, and for the world at large,” she concluded. “A Gadhafi-driven gold revolution would have, however, imperiled the positions of central bankers and their political and media power-brokers.”
Adding credence to the theory about why Gadhafi had to be overthrown, as The New American reported in March, was the rebels’ odd decision to create a central bank to replace Gadhafi’s state-owned monetary authority. The decision was broadcast to the world in the early weeks of the conflict.
In a statement describing a March 19 meeting, the rebel council announced, among other things, the creation of a new oil company. And more importantly: “Designation of the Central Bank of Benghazi as a monetary authority competent in monetary policies in Libya and appointment of a Governor to the Central Bank of Libya, with a temporary headquarters in Benghazi.”
The creation of a new central bank, even more so than the new national oil regime, left analysts scratching their heads. “I have never before heard of a central bank being created in just a matter of weeks out of a popular uprising,” noted Robert Wenzel in an analysis for the Economic Policy Journal. “This suggests we have a bit more than a rag tag bunch of rebels running around and that there are some pretty sophisticated influences,” he added. Wenzel also noted that the uprising looked like a “major oil and money play, with the true disaffected rebels being used as puppets and cover” while the transfer of control over money and oil supplies takes place.
Other analysts, even in the mainstream press, were equally shocked. “Is this the first time a revolutionary group has created a central bank while it is still in the midst of fighting the entrenched political power?” wondered CNBC senior editor John Carney. “It certainly seems to indicate how extraordinarily powerful central bankers have become in our era.”
Similar scenarios involving the global monetary system — based on the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, backed by the fact that oil is traded in American money — have also been associated with other targets of the U.S. government. Some analysts even say a pattern is developing.
Iran, for example, is one of the few nations left in the world with a state-owned central bank. And Iraqi despot Saddam Hussein, once armed by the U.S. government to make war on Iran, was threatening to start selling oil in currencies other than the dollar just prior to the Bush administration’s “regime change” mission.
While most of the establishment press in America has been silent on the issue of Gadhafi’s gold dinar scheme, in Russia, China, and the global alternative media, the theory has exploded in popularity. Whether salvaging central banking and the corrupt global monetary system were truly among the reasons for Gadhafi’s overthrow, however, may never be known for certain — at least not publicly.
http://thenewamerican.com/economy/markets-mainmenu-45/9743-gadhafis-gold-money-plan-would-have-devastated-dollar
It remains unclear exactly why or how the Gadhafi regime went from “a model” and an “important ally” to the next target for regime change in a period of just a few years. But after claims of “genocide” as the justification for NATO intervention were disputed by experts, several other theories have been floated.
Oil, of course, has been mentioned frequently — Libya is Africa‘s largest oil producer. But one possible reason in particular for Gadhafi’s fall from grace has gained significant traction among analysts and segments of the non-Western media: central banking and the global monetary system.
According to more than a few observers, Gadhafi’s plan to quit selling Libyan oil in U.S. dollars — demanding payment instead in gold-backed “dinars” (a single African currency made from gold) — was the real cause. The regime, sitting on massive amounts of gold, estimated at close to 150 tons, was also pushing other African and Middle Eastern governments to follow suit.
And it literally had the potential to bring down the dollar and the world monetary system by extension, according to analysts. French President Nicolas Sarkozy reportedly went so far as to call Libya a “threat” to the financial security of the world. The “Insiders” were apparently panicking over Gadhafi’s plan.
"Any move such as that would certainly not be welcomed by the power elite today, who are responsible for controlling the world's central banks,” noted financial analyst Anthony Wile, editor of the free market-oriented Daily Bell, in an interview with RT. “So yes, that would certainly be something that would cause his immediate dismissal and the need for other reasons to be brought forward [for] removing him from power."
According to Wile, Gadhafi’s plan would have strengthened the whole continent of Africa in the eyes of economists backing sound money — not to mention investors. But it would have been especially devastating for the U.S. economy, the American dollar, and particularly the elite in charge of the system.
“The central banking Ponzi scheme requires an ever-increasing base of demand and the immediate silencing of those who would threaten its existence,” Wile noted in a piece entitled “Gaddafi Planned Gold Dinar, Now Under Attack” earlier this year. “Perhaps that is what the hurry [was] in removing Gaddafi in particular and those who might have been sympathetic to his monetary idea.”
Investor newsletters and commentaries have been buzzing for months with speculation about the link between Gadhafi’s gold dinar and the NATO-backed overthrow of the Libyan regime. Conservative analysts pounced on the potential relationship, too.
“In 2009 — in his capacity as head of the African Union — Libya's Moammar Gadhafi had proposed that the economically crippled continent adopt the ‘Gold Dinar,’” noted Ilana Mercer in an August opinion piece for WorldNetDaily. “I do not know if Col. Gadhafi continued to agitate for ditching the dollar and adopting the Gold Dinar — or if the Agitator from Chicago got wind of Gadhafi's (uncharacteristic) sanity about things monetary.”
But if Arab and African nations had begun adopting a gold-backed currency, it would have had major repercussions for debt-laden Western governments that would be far more significant than the purported “democratic” uprisings sweeping the region this year. And it would have spelled big trouble for the elite who benefit from “freshly counterfeited funny-money,” Mercer pointed out.
“Had Gadhafi sparked a gold-driven monetary revolution, he would have done well for his own people, and for the world at large,” she concluded. “A Gadhafi-driven gold revolution would have, however, imperiled the positions of central bankers and their political and media power-brokers.”
Adding credence to the theory about why Gadhafi had to be overthrown, as The New American reported in March, was the rebels’ odd decision to create a central bank to replace Gadhafi’s state-owned monetary authority. The decision was broadcast to the world in the early weeks of the conflict.
In a statement describing a March 19 meeting, the rebel council announced, among other things, the creation of a new oil company. And more importantly: “Designation of the Central Bank of Benghazi as a monetary authority competent in monetary policies in Libya and appointment of a Governor to the Central Bank of Libya, with a temporary headquarters in Benghazi.”
The creation of a new central bank, even more so than the new national oil regime, left analysts scratching their heads. “I have never before heard of a central bank being created in just a matter of weeks out of a popular uprising,” noted Robert Wenzel in an analysis for the Economic Policy Journal. “This suggests we have a bit more than a rag tag bunch of rebels running around and that there are some pretty sophisticated influences,” he added. Wenzel also noted that the uprising looked like a “major oil and money play, with the true disaffected rebels being used as puppets and cover” while the transfer of control over money and oil supplies takes place.
Other analysts, even in the mainstream press, were equally shocked. “Is this the first time a revolutionary group has created a central bank while it is still in the midst of fighting the entrenched political power?” wondered CNBC senior editor John Carney. “It certainly seems to indicate how extraordinarily powerful central bankers have become in our era.”
Similar scenarios involving the global monetary system — based on the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, backed by the fact that oil is traded in American money — have also been associated with other targets of the U.S. government. Some analysts even say a pattern is developing.
Iran, for example, is one of the few nations left in the world with a state-owned central bank. And Iraqi despot Saddam Hussein, once armed by the U.S. government to make war on Iran, was threatening to start selling oil in currencies other than the dollar just prior to the Bush administration’s “regime change” mission.
While most of the establishment press in America has been silent on the issue of Gadhafi’s gold dinar scheme, in Russia, China, and the global alternative media, the theory has exploded in popularity. Whether salvaging central banking and the corrupt global monetary system were truly among the reasons for Gadhafi’s overthrow, however, may never be known for certain — at least not publicly.
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