Vancouver, Day 1

Vancouver, Day 1

The first day of the Olympics is behind us, and we're here to check up on our predictions. Let's look at the games!

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USA-SUI

We expected this to be a tough game, and it turned out that way. Ralph Krüger's Switzerland plays a very tight defensive game, with a surprisingly competent offense and power play, and they didn't make it easy for the Americans.

We said: It could turn into a blowout, but we expect a fairly close game. 3-1 or thereabouts to the Americans.

The score: 3-1 USA. Spot on!

Our first prediction ever, and it's dead right! We feel quite good about this one.

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CAN-NOR

Given that we remember several Canadian coaches, including a lunatic in garishly colored jackets, have a habit of pontificating about "running up the score", it was fascinating to see Canada score half of the goals in this game after their opponent was totally beaten. Par for the course for Canadian hockey.

As for the game, though, the numbers don't do the Norwegians justice. Luongo's shutout was perilously close to being broken several times, and it took luck keep the goose egg intact. The first period ended 0-0, and Norway played very well until the head coach's inexplicable decision to change goaltenders after the 4-0 goal. Pål Grotnes played an excellent game, as he always does, notwithstanding the ugly 3-0 wraparound goal, so pulling him in the second period was a bit of a surprise. Often coaches change goalies to send the team a message, and this time it seemed to tell the team that the game was over. After Grotnes went off, the fight went out of Norway completely, and the Canadians hammered in another 4 goals. Given that goal differentials do matter in this tournament, and Grotnes was playing excellently, we're not sure what the coach was going for; had he not switched goalies, the game wouldn't have ended up nearly as ugly.

We said: It's easy to see how this could get surprisingly difficult for the home side, but then again, it's Norway. Unless the Canadians fail hideously, we're thinking something between 5-2 or 8-1 to Canada.

The score: 8-0 CAN.

What we failed to mention in the first post is that for purposes of working out our scenario, we pegged this one at 7-1. 8-0 is just outside the spread we gave, and very close to the score we used for our calculations. We're calling this one close. The eventual score is very close to what we used for our scenario, and nearly within the bracket we gave, so we're quite happy with this one as well. Norway was within inches of scoring at least once, and Canada's sticky start kept the numbers below what they might have been.

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RUS-LAT

Until the start of the third period, this game too was going down exactly like we thought: after a lightning start, both teams spent the second period doing pretty much nothing, and the game was 4-0 Russia at the end of the second. Then a minute into the third the Latvians went and scored. Not only did they ruin our prediction, but they made the Russians mad by ruining Nabokov's shutout. They scored three goals on their next four shots, followed by Latvia's second goal. If everyone had just taken it easy at the start of the third, 6-0 looked more than likely, but no. Stupid goal. Weirdly, the refs called this one totally differently from the other two games tonight, with way more penalties going both ways.

We said: 6-0 Russia for the first shutout of the tournament; either Nabokov or Brizgalov will do.

The score: 8-2 RUS. Miss. Okay, we got the winner and loser right, but we won't take any credit for that in this case.

**

To finish off, a couple of general observations. We've now seen Canada on the ice, but it's impossible to say anything about them based on that game. The first period was just terrible hockey, the second was passable, and in the third there was only one team on the ice. We actually thought the Americans handled themselves better in their debut. All Canada has proved so far is that they can beat Norway, with difficulty. Russia, too, gave some early indications of trouble; their defense wasn't all that great, and Nabokov was surprisingly shaky in the third.

The little countries, though, played far better than the numbers indicate. The Norwegians and Swiss played as well as we expected, but quite frankly, the Latvians were surprisingly good! The old days of the '90s, where the underdog countries played a 1-2-2 trap based on the hook and slash are well and truly gone, and good riddance to them. All six countries who took the ice today basically played the same kind of competitive hockey and put up a proper fight, with the partial exception of the Norwegians.

Overall the differences in international hockey have gotten a lot smaller since the turn of the millennium, and that's a good thing for international hockey. On that happy note, we'll sum up with our record so far:

1 hit
1 close
1 miss

Tonight, Team Finland debuts, and we look forward to our first complete miss of the tournament when the Czechs face Slovakia, especially if Márians Gáborik and Hossa are both out. We'll be back to check up on our predictions as soon as we can be bothered.