Vancouver: Day five and onward

This is the last post of the initial round! First we'll run through Day 5, then talk about the big games on Day 6 and see how the elimination games and quarterfinals work out.

Day 5

NOR - SUI

We said: 4-1 Switzerland.

The score: 5-4 OT Switzerland. Miss. Wow. A heck of a game, with Norway nearly taking advantage of an unexpected collapse by Switzerland.


LAT - SVK

We said: 6-2 to Slovakia.

The score: 6-0 Slovakia. Miss, but given our poor record of late, it's hearteningly close. With this game, Latvia loses the initial round. Strangely, the only team to shut Latvia out in this group was the one that had the weakest defense.


GER - BLR

We said: 4-1 Germany.

The score: 5-3 Belarus. Miss. If Switzerland struggled against Norway, Germany just plain failed. The Belarusians finally broke out their offensive skills and took the Germans somewhat by surprise, and Germany, shut out in both of its previous games, really struggled to score. We expected both Germany and Switzerland to zero in on these games as their most crucial tests in the tournament, but both were surprisingly shaky. The Germans were unable to transition from their tight defensive game to a more aggressive brand of hockey, and paid for it here.

Our record: 1-3-11; in winners and losers, 12-3.

**

And now, the big day!

Day 6

Finnish state TV is calling this "Super Sunday", and it's not so far off. Today the initial groups end and the elimination games are seeded. Also, there's some great hockey with all the proper countries facing each other.

RUS - CZE

Some excellent hockey! Highlights included a flashback to the Torino Olympics when Jagr was skating around with his head down again, and this time Ovechkin cleaned his clock to set up Russia's 3-1 goal.

We said: the Russians will take this in regulation at 5-2.

The score: 4-2 Russia. After days in a row of complete misses, finally we're close.

That completes Group B. We predicted the following group table:

Russia, 9
Slovakia, 6
Czech Republic, 3
Latvia, 0

Actually, this is how it ended up:

Russia, 7 points
Czech Republic, 6
Slovakia, 5
Latvia, 0

So apart from the Czechs and Slovaks changing places, this went pretty much like we thought.


CAN - USA

Canada controlled the game most of the time, but USA capitalized on its opportunities better, and Miller was stellar.

We said: while it's going to be a hard-fought one, we think Canada will take this one 4-3 to emerge as group winner.

The score: 5-3 USA. Miss. We really expected Team Canada to be better.

We predicted:

Canada, 9 points
USA, 6
Switzerland, 3
Norway, 0

The actual table:

USA, 9
Canada, 5
Switzerland, 3
Norway, 1


SWE - FIN

Worst game of the tournament, both for Team Finland and generally. Hopefully Finland can bounce back to next one.

We said: Finland will beat Sweden, and the Finnish press will start planning the parade route. Finland takes it 5-2.

The score: 3-0 Sweden. Miss.

Our predicted standings:

Finland, 9 points
Sweden, 6
Germany, 3
Belarus, 0

And the final outcome:

Sweden, 9 points
Finland, 6
Belarus, 3
Germany, 0

Our boys let us down, but otherwise the group went like we thought.


Our record for days five and six is one close and five misses. We aren't doing that good.

Our overall record stand at: 1-4-13; in winners and losers, 13-5.

**

Elimination games:

We thought they would be:

SWE-NOR, SWE
SVK-LAT, SVK
CZE-BLR, CZE
SUI-GER, SUI

Apart from Sweden going straight to quarterfinals and Canada not, we got the teams right, but not the seeding order. If somebody figured Canada would go to elimination games, more power to ya.

Actual elimination match-ups are:

CZE - LAT
CAN - GER
SVK - NOR
SUI - BLR


**

Our scenario is now in tatters; the final we and the rest of the hockey world predicted will not take place. So here's our revised scenario for the rest of the games!

Elimination games:

CZE - LAT
CAN - GER
SVK - NOR
SUI - BLR

We predict the team with home advantage will win each game, though Switzerland and Belarus might well take it to overtime. Obviously we're hoping Canada will stun the hockey world by getting eliminated here, but we aren't going to put any money on Germany. We won't be putting money on Canada either, with the odds our governmet betting agency is giving, offering 1.01 times your bet.

Quarterfinals, as per our prediction:

USA - SUI
SWE - SVK
RUS - CAN
FIN - CZE

USA will win their game against Switzerland, but the other ones are tough to call. Any one of the six teams can win their game.

Slovakia is a mystery to us: they lose to the Czechs but defeat Russia. Overall they haven't impressed us, but neither has Sweden. They have excellent goaltending, though: Halak and Lundqvist have been the top two goalies of the tournament so far. We think Slovakia is the worse team, and they take too much penalties. Slovakia's only chance is that the gold-laden Swedish team is not hungry enough. They looked lackluster even when beating Finland 3-0. Still, we predict Sweden will win.

The most anticipated match-up of the tournament will not take place in the finals, but in the quarterfinals. One of the two teams thought most likely to take gold will go home without a medal. We think both teams have played poorly so far. Russia looked alright in their opening game, stumbled against Slovakia, but recovered in their last game against the Czechs. Canada had trouble getting started against Norway, barely defeated Switzerland, and lost to USA. Russians seem to be improving their game, which Canada has so far failed to do. Having to play Germany won't help with that. Canada has the most pressure, and their game hasn't been very good. Unless they can make it all come together, they will lose. We predict Russia wins, hopefully by a goal by Ilya Kovalchuk.

Finland versus the Czech Republic is Finland's game to win or lose. If the team that played against Germany and Belarus shows up, Finland wins. If the joke of a team that lost to Sweden turns up, they would lose to Latvia, let alone the Czechs. We feel really bad about Finland after the last game, but we think they should be able to win this game. We predict Finland wins.

Semifinals:

USA - FIN
SWE - RUS

Much as we wish it were otherwise, we believe we'll see USA - Russia final with Sweden and Finland competing for the bronze. We think Finland will want the bronze more and win the game, and we stand by our original prediction that Russia will take gold.