Tuesday, April 12, 2011

2011 brief playoff preview

It's a good regular season when the very last game of all decides a playoff spot!

To start, though, I'd lke to revisit my pre-season predictions.

This is partly for vindictive reasons. After I posted my season preview, a writer at a Minnesota hockey blog got all sniffy about it:

Read about how the Wild have a scoring duo of Koivu and Havlat, play the trap, and are boring. Yes, it really was posted today.

To be fair, boredom is in the eye of the beholder; anyone who identifies as a Wild fan is unlikely to find the Wild boring. I, on the other hand, did. The other items are more amenable to verification, though. I'll admit we don't see many Wild games over here - they're mostly on at really inconvenient times - but last time I checked, namely the last game of the season, when the Wild turned the puck over, they settled into a forechecking formation with one forward up high, two deeper and the two defensemen behind them. Or, in numerical terms, a 1-2-2. Now, I don't know what you call that in Minnesota, but here in the old country we call that a trap.

As for scoring, guess who the Wild's top two regular season scorers were? Yeah. Martin Havlat and Mikko Koivu. I'd also be remiss if I didn't point out that I did predict the Wild wouldn't make the playoffs, and they didn't. So now, 82 games after the prediction that these guys got so sniffy about, I'd just like to point out that I was dead on the money.

Hey, Don Cherry does this stuff all the time.

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With that out of the way, I can say that overall, I'm fairly happy with my picks. I correctly picked five out of six division winners, the only failure being New Jersey. Now, I admit it's a big failure, but I was hardly alone in expecting them to do much better this season. Also, out of the teams I put in the fuhgeddaboudit category, none made it to the playoffs. In all seriousness, given the amount and quality of information I'm operating on, I think that went surprisingly well.

Now I'll proceed to destroy my credibility with some rather unoriginal but probably nonetheless wildly mistaken playoff picks.

The East

Caps - Rangers: Caps

Surely the Caps must win this series. The only way the Capitals' season makes any sense is if their new brand of less flashy, more solid hockey is designed for a playoff drive. If they fall flat on the first round against an opponent as anemic as the injury-riddled Rangers and their deep-playing goaltender, it will be a total disaster.

Flyers - Sabres: Flyers

The Sabres did well to get into the playoffs, and it looks like the change in ownership might have them heading in the right direction. However, given how strong Philadelphia was both this season and in last year's playoffs, it would be a huge upset if they got past the Flyers.

Bruins - Habs: Habs

I consider the Bruins somewhat overrated anyway, and the fact that the Habs dominated the season series should count for something. It'll be close, but my money's on the Habs.

Pens - Bolts: Bolts

This one is tough to call. It's tempting to talk about the up-and-coming Bolts and the seasoned Penguins, but in fact, there's been plenty of turnover in the Penguins' roster since their trips to the final, and some continuity in the Bolts from theirs. Overall, I think the more dynamic Bolts will win it; Bylsma's trap might have been enough to get the Pens into the post-season, but with their playoff MVP out of action, I doubt the Pens have the offense to win. It's going to be tough, and the first few games are key: if the Pens can frustrate the Tampa offense early, they have a good shot at winning.

The West

Nucks - Hawks: Hawks

I'm going out on a limb here, but this isn't any fun if you don't. I think the Hawks' energetic forecheck, the offense they get from their D-men and the playoff experience gathered over last year's Cup run will power the Hawks into the second round. Sure, Vancouver has a strong team, but their past few playoffs have fallen well short. The question is: have they taken those final few steps that will turn them into a postseason force? If so, they're favorites to be in at least the conference final, if not contending for the Cup. If not, the Hawks will kick their ass.

Sharks - Kings: Sharks

The same question goes double for the Sharks, who've dominated the regular season but failed in the playoffs enough times already. I think they'll do better this year, and the Kings still need several pieces more before they're ready for a really deep playoff run.

Wings - Yotes: Wings

If the Wings' last regular season game against Chicago is anything to go by, they've still got some of the magic that propelled them to the Cup. I don't see them going all the way, although it isn't impossible, but at the very least expect them to put up a good fight.

Ducks - Preds: Ducks

The Preds have been touted as the team nobody wants to face in the postseason, but in my opinion, that title belongs squarely with Anaheim. Again, it'll be a tough fight, but Anaheim's experience, physical play and offensive power will overwhelm the Predators.

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Overall I think that in many ways, the NHL is in a good place right now. I'm looking forward to a really good playoffs, with several excellent series coming up. There's a bit of everything: established teams with recent Cup wins, teams struggling to convert regular season success into good post-season play, young up-and-comers and a couple of real underdogs that might have some big surprises in store.

I can't wait for the first game!

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Before that, though, it's time to acknowledge an NHL milestone: in the last game of the regular season, one of our favorite players made hockey history. At 06:44 in the first period, Anaheim's Jarkko Ruutu took a two-minute penalty for roughing, which propelled him to a total of 1078 career PIMs, setting a record for Finnish-born NHL players. The previous incumbent was, of course, Esa Tikkanen.



The mild-mannered Ruutu (what? He's got glasses, hasn't he?) is an Olympic silver medalist:


And someone Jaromír Jágr will probably remember for a while.



It was a clean hit! Don't believe me? Watch the video.



And now he's the NHL's all-time Finnish leader in regular season penalty minutes. Go Rudi! We love you.

In a manly way, of course.

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