**
On to the tournament! As usual, there are four starting groups, two in each host city, which amalgamate into two larger groups for the next round to determine the playoff matchups.
Group A (Bratislava): Russia, Slovakia, Germany, Slovenia.
Group B (Košice): Canada, Switzerland, Belarus, France.
Group C (Košice): Sweden, United States, Norway, Austria.
Group D (Bratislava): Finland, Czech Republic, Latvia, Denmark
Groups A and D form one qualifying round group, with B and C forming another.
Here's my thoughts on the teams, with their finish in last year's championship indicated.
Group A:
Russia - 2nd
Having lost the final game last year to the Czechs, the Russians should be hungry, and they have a good team this year. Then again, you never know with these guys. Needless to say, going home without a medal would be a huge disappointment, and I expect to see them first or second in the qualifying round and in the final.
Slovakia - 12th
Home tournaments are a funny thing. Generally, the host country will either do well, boosted by the home crowd and their pride in playing in front of their fans, or they'll crash and burn spectacularly because of the pressure. I'm not sure which Slovakia is going to do here, but I'm pessimistic. On the one hand, they have an impressive lineup, all the way from world champions Miroslav Satan on down, with the superb Jaroslav Halak in goal. On the other, I saw the practice games they played against Team Finland, where they were absolutely rubbish. Coach Glen Hanlon's uninspiring trap won't serve too well here either. Last year, they finished a dismal 12th, and this year they'll be hard-pressed to secure an advantageous quarterfinal berth in a tough qualifying round. I hate to say it, but I'm afraid the home fans will be disappointed this year.
Germany - 4th
The Germans surpassed themselves last year with a place in the bronze medal game. With their low world ranking, they'll need to beat either the Russians, Slovaks, Czechs or Finns to get a quarterfinal place. Keep an eye on the Germany-Slovakia game in the opening round on May 3rd; it's going to be a big one for the home team.
Slovenia - promoted from 1st division
Finally, the country that gave us Laibach, Mina Špiler and Anže Kopitar is back in the world championships. I'm a big fan of Slovenia, but they'll need to pull a major upset to avoid the relegation round. Their real fight is there, and it'll be tough.
Group B:
Canada - 7th
It's a common refrain among Finnish announcers and commentators that the Russians and Czechs, with what is occasionally and appallingly called their "Slavic mentality", are the kind of teams that either show up or don't. If that is to some extent true of them, both North American national teams are even better examples of teams where everything is secondary to whether the players happen to be motivated or not. The net result is that on any givevn day, it's next to impossible to tell how their teams will play. Last year, we picked Canada to win the tournament, and they crashed out in the quarterfinals. It's the same story again this year; on paper, the Canadian team is strong, but who knows how they'll play? An easy opening round won't help them get geared up for the tournament, although they've had surprising difficulties with Switzerland over the last few years. Only the qualifying round will give any idea how they're going to do.
Switzerland - 5th
My native country has really upped its game over the past decade or so, and can now be relied upon to show up in the quarterfinals and challenge the bigger hockey countries. Unless something surprising happens above or below them in the standings, they should have the fourth quarterfinal spot in this qualifying round locked down. A win there would be a major upset, so they'll likely finish with a similar rank this year as before.
Belarus - 10th
An enigmatic team, sometimes Belarus pulls off a proper upset, and not always with help from Tommy Salo's glove. In fairness, it was the team in front of him that lost the game, but the Swedes prefer to blame Salo because he has a Finnish name. Expect a finish in the qualifying round, as they shouldn't have much trouble putting France away.
France - 14th
The plucky French team has had a surprisingly good showing at the world champs. A few years ago in Canada, they would even have beaten Sweden if the refs didn't always heavily favor the higher-ranked countries. This year, the fight in the relegation round is likely to be stiff enough that the French will, unfortunately, lose the tournament and end up back in the first division.
Group C:
Sweden - 3rd
Bengt-Åke Gustafsson ended his national team coaching career in an, erm, memorable way last year, and the new guy is in this year. By all accounts, though, it's still pretty much the same Team Sweden as it was in Gustafsson's last years: straightforward, physical, even dirty. With a whole bunch of NHL players along for the ride this year, the Swedes should be a force to be reckoned with, but their abysmally bad offensive play in the last EHT tournament was a surprise. If they get their goalscoring going, they'll do well again.
USA - 13th
The US national team oscillates between an excellent, aggressive young hockey team and a total fiasco that ends up in the relegation round. We'll see which one shows up this year. They don't have a very difficult opening or qualifying round ahead of them, but while they should get to the quarterfinals, I expect that to be the end of the road for them unless they seriously overachieve.
Norway - 9th
Norway has been a rising hockey power ever since making it back into the main championship tournament, and they fell just short of the quarterfinals last year. Look for Norway to do well again this year; at the very least, they should make life uncomfortable for the Americans and Swedes in the opening round and fight their way to a good qualifying round finish.
Austria - promoted from 1st division
Every time I've seen the Austrians play at the top level, I've liked them: they play an entertaining, energetic kind of hockey. This year, though, the Norwegians will be a hard nut to crack, and failure there will most likely mean the relegation round, which will be very tough this year. So I'm very much afraid there's a good chance Austria will end up right back in the first division.
Group D:
Finland - 6th
In hockey, Finland is a nation of goaltenders, checking forwards and offensive defensemen. Having said that, this is the first time for ages that Finland is going into a major international tournament with serious questions about its goaltending. It looks like Petri Vehanen from the KHL will take up the number-one spot, and that's not the level of goaltending Finland is used to. However, that's not the big problem; even the normal mix of checking forwards and has-beens from the European leagues at forward doesn't worry me. In fact, as far as forwards are concerned, this is one of the best world championship teams Finland has fielded for a long time.
The problem is, again, the D. If I go on about that, it's only because in my opinion, in hockey as she is played today, the defensemen are by far the most important part of the team. This year, like so many times before, Team Finland's management has been unable or unwilling to recruit enough solid stay-at-home defensemen for the national team. The team is once again overloaded with offensive or two-way defensemen, despite the fact that the defensive end has been nothing but trouble in the previous years. I don't know what the thinking is in the team management, but the Finnish media at least is unanimous in exaggerating the importance of goaltending.
Another extremely strange failing is the constant underachieving of Team Finland's power play under head coach Jalonen. It's bizarre that year in, year out, the Finnish power play is a confused mess. Watching the last EHT tournament, I couldn't even tell what play the PP was trying to set up. Needless to say, they didn't have much success. Frankly, when the players change but the problem remains, you have to look behind the bench. Given the lack of solid defensive D-men, Finland will likely struggle in both aspects of special teams.
On the good side, several players look set for an impressive coming-out championships. Finland's supposed sniper Juhamatti Aaltonen was worse than useless last year, but judging from his pre-tournament play, he's taken a big step forward. I still don't understand how the country that produced Teemu Selänne can call a guy like him a sniper, but this year he's using his speed to good effect with an energetic forechecking game. On the special teams front, centerman Petteri Nokelainen has been playing a very strong pre-tournament and will likely do well in that spot at the championships.
Finland probably won't do exceptionally poorly in the opening or qualifying rounds, but the odds are that in the quarterfinals they'll be facing either Canada, the US or Sweden. All are teams that play a straightforward, physical offensive game, which Finland's weak D won't be able to stop. Similar team, similar story: expect the Finns to drop out in the quarterfinals.
Having said that, I have a good feeling about this Team Finland that I can't explain at all. It's sort of barely conceivable that the forwards can make up for the team's defensive deficiencies and take Finland into the medal games. It's probably wishful thinking, but I'm feeling strangely optimistic.
Czech Republic - 1st
A year or so ago, it looked like the Czechs' hockey star was on the wane. After some lackluster championship performances and another thoroughly forgettable Euro Hockey Tour, the number of Czech players being drafted was in a steep decline. Then they surprised everyone by winning the 2010 world championship. This year, the EHT was a poor showing again, until their home tournament last weekend when they came alive. Jaromír Jágr is still with us and looking a lot like his old self, and in front of their fanatical home crowd, the Czechs played great in the last EHT tournament. Many of those fans will follow them across the border to what is, after all, nearly a home tournament for the Czechs. They'll do well again this year.
Latvia - 11th
Another waning Eastern European country, judging from their play in pre-tournament friendlies against Finland the Latvians aren't going to be terribly impressive. Another big opening round game will be on May 4th: Latvia-Denmark. If they can fight off Denmark and avoid the relegation round, they'll pretty much have maxed out the tournament. If Denmark wins and they end up in the relegation round, they'll make life very difficult for the other countries in there.
Denmark - 8th
Coming off an excellent eighth-place finish and quarterfinal berth in last year's championship, this year my favorite national team's first challenge is to make sure the Latvians, not them, end up in the relegation series. Sadly, they're not likely to beat the Czechs or Finns, but they'll put up a good fight. With good qualifying round games against the Slovaks and Germans, a repeat of the quarterfinals isn't impossible; on the other hand, a loss to Latvia will send them to the tough relegation series, where the Danes have unfortunately collapsed before. Out of all the teams in the tournament, they have the widest range of potential finishes.
**
Next year will be a different year in Finland, with commercial television in the form of MTV3 handling the telecasts of the world championships. That may or may not be a good thing. They also did the Euro Hockey Tour this year, and there was a bit of a mêlée at the end of the Finland-Russia game yesterday after a hit by Tuomo Ruutu. He got a game misconduct, and the commentators were shocked and horrified by this terrible miscarriage of justice, because it was a clean hit!
Here's an appallingly bad video of the hit:
Sure, that's a clean hit. In an NHL game. Now, we're big fans of Tuomo Ruutu here, but on the EHT, international rules are in use, and that is as obvious an example of a hit to the head as you can ask for. His shoulder makes direct contact with the Russian player's head. When a player is hit in the head and injured, the player delivering the hit gets a 5+20 minute penalty and a game misconduct. That's the rule. And I would expect people who are paid money to announce and commentate on the game to know that.
Inexplicably, jatkoaika.com, who I usually consider a fairly good source of hockey news, insists the hit was clean because Ruutu didn't have his hands up. If they can point out the clause in the rulebook that says a head hit is legal as long as the hitter's hands are down, I'll be very interested.
The coverage on Yle was, to say the least, biased; it looks like MTV3 may be worse.
**
So there we are! I don't feel up to putting together a detailed prediction this year, but unless something weird happens, I expect to see Russia, the Czech Republic, Canada and Sweden in the medal games, so business as usual. It would be nice to see Finland play for a medal, as well as the home team, but I don't really find either possibility very likely.
Until, that is, hours before this publishes on my blog, Anaheim's first line decided they're not going to show up for the playoffs at all and the Ducks were eliminated. There are four Finnish players on the Ducks' roster; if any three of them join, I expect a medal for Finland. A fourth line of Komarov-Nokelainen-J.Ruutu would be simply perfect, Toni Lydman would make me feel a hell of a lot better about the quarterfinal, and Saku Koivu and Teemu Selänne are, well, themselves. Like I said, any three of them join the team and I believe Finland will win a medal.
All in all, I hope we'll get another interesting championship like last year.
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