Ice hockey world championships preview

It feels like a bit of a letdown to have another major hockey tournament so soon after the Olympics, but the IIHF and the tournament organizers always make a profit, so as long as it's money that makes the world go 'round, we'll have the world champs every year. Here's our brief preview, starting with the teams by current world ranking.

Canada: Canada has a fair NHL-level team, featuring the co-winner of the Rocket Richard trophy and the best defense in the games. It would be astonishing if they didn't do well, but every now and then, they do find a way.

Russia: The best offense in the game, including Ovechkin and Kovalchuk, to drop a few names, backed by solid goaltending in Varlamov. The thing is, you'd think the Russians will want to win this to make up for humiliating themselves completely at the Olympics. Then again, we thought they'd want to win that, too. They might power through to their third consecutive world championship gold medal, or crash out in the quarterfinals. We just don't know.

Finland: We have no D. The team has six offensive defensemen who are total liabilities in our own end, and two stay-at-home D, one of whom is the appalling Lasse Kukkonen. The goaltending is top-notch for a tournament like this, but Pekka Rinne has his work cut out for him. Even Miikka Kiprusoff struggled behind the similarly inept Finnish defence at the Olympics.

Sweden: If Finland has no D, Sweden has no team. 26 players have refused to turn up for the games, according to Aftonbladet's count. Of course, some of them are busy. All other things being equal, that means this is effectively the Swedish "B team". As of this writing, Sweden has yet to announce their team, probably because they're ashamed to. They managed to lose the Euro Hockey Tour with this lot. We confidently expect them to suck.

USA: That Olympic silver medal was no fluke: the US has a great new generation of hockey players coming up. This should be a young, hungry team, and Scott Clemmensen is the best goalie at the games. We expect them to come home with a medal.

Czech Republic: Over the last few years, the Czechs have looked old, tired and confused. They put in a fairly dismal performance on the Euro Hockey Tour. Vokoun is an excellent goalie, but him and Jaromir Jagr notwithstanding, the team doesn't look very convincing. They barely managed to squeeze past Latvia in the Olympic "eighth-finals", and Finland beat them 2-0 in the quarterfinals because they were totally rubbish. We expect a similar finish here.

Slovakia: On the face of it, the only thing the Slovak team is good for is funny names: Richard Panik, Michal Macho and Roman Kukumberg. Then again, their Olympic team wasn't that much more convincing, and they made the bronze medal game. We reckon quarterfinal elimination (see below).

Switzerland: Incredibly enough, this is not Ralph Krüger's Switzerland. They have a new head coach! Under Krüger, Switzerland played an admirably solid brand of hockey for years, finishing a respectable eighth at the Olympics. We'll see what the new head coach does, but we're looking forward to seeing Switzerland do well again. There's no word on the final lineup yet, but we're hoping Switzerland's hero from the U20 tournament, Nino Niederreiter, shows up. Switzerland's decisive games are against the Czechs and Swedes in the qualification round; if they can beat one of both, they even have a shot at the semifinals.

The rest:

We expect a typical performance from both Belarus and Latvia: give some of the bigger countries a surprisingly hard time, but finish just outside the quarterfinals. Norway put up an excellent show at the Olympics, so we think they'll do well and avoid the relegation series altogether.

Germany have really struggled at the world championships over the last decade, but the Olympics looked like a return to form of sorts. They're playing in front of the home crowd, which may either spur them on to great things or make them so nervous they just fail. They have a shot at upsetting Slovakia and making the quarterfinals, but I'm afraid that's as far as they can hope to get.

I'm a big fan of Denmark, but being blasted 10-3 by a rubbish Swedish team before the games doesn't bode well for the plucky Danes. They'll end up in the relegation round unless they pull off a major upset, but they ought to do well there.

Sadly, this is the end of the championship road for Italy and France this time, although France has played surprisingly well. The most interesting struggle in the relegation round will be whether France of Kazakhstan is eliminated, and I'm afraid it's going to be France.

**

The tournament:

Here are the groups:

Group A:

Russia
Belarus
Slovakia
Kazakhstan

Group B:

Canada
Switzerland
Latvia
Italy

Group C:

Sweden
Czech Republic
Norway
France

Group D:

Finland
USA
Germany
Denmark

The worst team from each group will head to the relegation series, where two teams will be eliminated. Next year, Austria and Slovenia return to the championships to replace them. Groups A and D will form Group E, and B and C Group F; the four best teams from each will face each other in the quarterfinals.

To make a potentially tortuously long preview short, here's how it'll go:

Preliminary round:

Group A:

Russia
Slovakia
Belarus
--
Kazakhstan

Group B:

Canada
Switzerland
Latvia
--
Italy

Group C:

Sweden
Czech Republic
Norway
--
France

Group D:

USA
Finland
Germany
--
Denmark

Relegation round:

Kazakhstan
Italy
France
Denmark

Italy and France eliminated. Upset potential: France defeats Kazakhstan.

Group E:

Russia
USA
Finland
Slovakia
--
Germany
Belarus

Upset potential: Germany makes the quarterfinals.

Group F:

Canada
Czech Republic
Sweden
Switzerland
--
Norway
Latvia

Upset potential: Switzerland might well beat either the Swedes or Czechs. At worst, Sweden has an outside chance of missing the quarterfinals altogether, although that's very unlikely.

Quarterfinals:

Canada-Slovakia
Czech Republic-Finland
USA-Sweden
Russia-Switzerland

Upset potential: The Americans or Finns may drop their game.

Semifinals:

Russia-USA
Canada-Finland

Upset potential: If either Canada or Russia are going to fail somewhere, this is the most likely spot.

Medal games:

Canada-Russia
USA-Finland

Final ranking:

1. Canada
2. Russia
3. USA
4. Finland

Boringly predictable? Yes. But you'd be crazy to put your money on anything else.