A new Falklands conflict?

Next month will mark the thirtieth anniversary of the Argentine invasion of the Falklands. I don't know if they've got an election coming up or something, but they'be been making noise about the islands again.

The Falklands war is still something of a sore point for Britain's political left, what with Margaret Thatcher being Antichrist to them. I've actually sat a British and Irish studies exam on a book that determinedly referred to the "Malvinas conflict". Unsurprisingly, the foreword went to some lengths - for an academic work - to abuse the then-Prime Minister.

To me, hearing leftists talk about the "Malvinas" is bizarre. Surely, apart from any hopefully mythical modern-day Stalinists, the left believes in democracy and self-determination? The population of the Falklands is British and has repeatedly made it clear that they wish to remain British. It's the Argentine claim that the islands are somehow theirs that represents pure imperialism. What makes the left-wing defense of the Argentines even more bizarre is that at the time of the war, Argentina was fighting the so-called "dirty war" against left-wingers and trade unions, with the same military that invaded the Falklands. One can only assume that the British left let their hatred of Mrs. Thatcher distort the picture.

If you wanted to be neutral, I suppose you could call them the Sebald islands after their probable Dutch discoverer, but I don't see any need to, as the Argentinians are, in my opinion, clearly in the wrong. In this case, it's the former colony that is the imperialist. It was on precisely these grounds that the United Nations found Argentina to be guilty of unjustified aggression back in 1982.

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Unfortunately, as much as Britain may have the moral advantage, they are at a decided military disadvantage when it comes to the defense of the islands. Should Argentina decide to invade again, the British would find it much more difficult to retake the Falklands in 2012 than they did in 1982.

By itself, the Argentine air force is hardly a threat. Their newest aircraft is the A-4AR Fightinghawk, an A-4 Skyhawk modernized with F-16 avionics. It's still a Skyhawk, the first examples of which entered service in 1956. Alongside them the Argentines essentially deploy the same aircraft, minus combat losses, that they fought the Falklands War with: Mirage III:s and V:s, and the Israeli upgraded versions of the latter. They also still fly the indigenous Pucará counter-insurgency aircraft, some of which are run on biofuel so they can fight a green counterinsurgency. In other words, Argentina currently maintains more or less the same air force that the British resoundingly defeated in 1982.

After the 1982 war, a major investment was made in improving the defenses of the Falklands. Mostly, this took the form of RAF Mount Pleasant, a brand-new airbase featuring what Wikipedia calls the world's longest corridor. Opened in 1985, RAF Mount Pleasant is home to No. 1435 Flight, which operates four Eurofighter Typhoons. Ground defense is provided by an infantry company from the Princess of Wales's Royal Regiment. Given its current obsolescent/obsolete state, the four Typhoons at Mount Pleasant and the Royal Navy ships in the area can probably see off the whole Argentine air force. But it's not quite that simple.

In my mind, the best analogy for the Mount Pleasant airbase is Singapore in 1941. The naval base at Singapore had been constructed to house the battlefleet Britain would send to the Pacific theatre. From there, it would have exerted a powerful deterrent - Mahan's "fleet in being" - on the Japanese. The Japanese pre-empted this plan by taking the inadequately defended base before the fleet could be deployed. The outnumbered defending EN forces were destroyed by asymmetric attack: aircraft against a battleship and cruiser. Having lost Singapore, the Royal Navy had to operate from bases in the Indian Ocean, and was unable to retake Singapore. The Navy had been ordered to defend Singapore, but denied the resources it needed.

Similarly, RAF Mount Pleasant could easily house enough air power to deter any Argentine invasion. But what if the Argentines pre-empt this plan? The present complement of four Typhoons may be more than enough to deal with anything the Argentine air force can send their way - in the air. However, a force of only four aircraft is appallingly vulnerable to asymmetric attack on the ground. Should those aircraft be disabled by sabotage or other means and the airbase be taken, how will Britain get it back? Without carrier-borne aviation, which Britain no longer has, any attempt to retake the islands would be in the face of Argentine air superiority. Even their obsolete aircraft could make life very uncomfortable for a naval task force, let alone an amphibious landing, depending on fighter cover from Ascension Island. After the inexplicable decision to retire both the Sea Harrier and Harrier from service, the Fleet Air Arm now operates no fixed-wing combat aircraft, and although the UK still has a single carrier (HMS Illustrious) in service, there are no carrier-capable combat aircraft in her inventory that could fly off her.

So while Britain found it difficult to put together a carrier task force to retake the islands in 1982, the same feat would be impossible in 2012, because the carrier task force simply cannot be assembled. The aircraft don't exist, with even the remaining Harrier GR9 airframes having been sold to the Americans. If the Argentines take the islands with a coup de main, the United Kingdom can't get them back on her own. Having dismantled her power projection capabilities, she would have to rely entirely on her allies for carrier-based air cover. This is a dismal prospect: the Americans are allied with Argentina, and are hardly likely to be interested in a shooting war in Latin America. The Spanish have a carrier, but the prospect of Spain going to war against Argentina over a British colony seems incongruous at best.

If Argentina invaded, British air superiority over the islands could only be realistically re-established by a French or Italian carrier group. That is the state of British sea power in 2012.

The first of the next generation of British aircraft carriers, the Queen Elizabeth class, is due to enter service in 2016. Until then, the Falklands are Argentina's for the taking, because British politicians did what no enemy ever could: destroyed the Fleet Air Arm.