Robalini's Week 16 NFL Picks

Here's my results for week 15 W-L-T record: 4-3-2
Season record: 62-51-5

Indianappolis Colts (+6) Over Houston Texans

I was eyeing this game even before Indy beat Tennessee for their first victory. The win should only inspire the Colts further in a home game, and the Texans just aren't as good without QB Matt Schaub. Houston may still win, but six points is a good buffer for the not-so-locked future home of Andrew Luck...

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) Over Oakland Raiders

The Chiefs issue with QB is solved thanks to getting Kyle Orton (who was pushed out of Denver behind a wave of Tebowmania.) They should play inspired at home in their first game after beating the previously undefeated Packers, and the Raiders should play flat after a disappointing last-minute one point loss against the Lions...

Denver Broncos (-3) Over Buffalo Bills

I admit it: I'm seduced by the charm of the Tebow cult. That said, the Bills are clueless now, with a seven-game losing streak with four of the games by more than two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Tebow is rapidly improving as a passer...

Cincinnati Bengals (-4 1/2) Over Arizona Cardinals

The Bengals only losses come against teams with winning records, something the Cards don't have. They're also an indoor team in a warm city unprepared for the Cincinnati cold...

New England Patriots (-10) Over Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are just the kind of team the Patriots like to beat up and abuse...

Carolina Panthers (-7) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs look like they're out of their, and Cam Newton is ready to cement his Rookie of the Year status...

Detroit Lions (-2 1/2) Over San Diego Chargers

Maybe a tad risky since the Chargers look in gear, but the Lions are at home and have their act together as well...

San Franciso 49ers (-3) Over Seattle Seahawks

The 49ers have cemented themselves as a team to be taken seriously...

Dallas Cowboys (-2 1/2) Over Philadelphia Eagles

The Cowboys at home should win against Philly thanks to the arm of Tony Romo...

Green Bay Packers (-12) Over Chicago Bears

Twelve points is a lot, but the Packers are ticked and ready to take it out on the Bears...

New Orleans Saints (-6 1/2) Over Atlanta Falcons

The Saints are on fire...

All bets are placed at Station Casinos:

http://www.stationcasinos.com/

To check Las Vegas odds, The Konformist recommends VegasInsider.com:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/

The Konformist College Playoff Bowl III: Part 3

Robert Sterling
Konformist.com
http://robalini.blogspot.com/

Yesterday, The Konformist released the results of the opening round in our third annual college playoff simulation. So let's continue with a simulation (courtesy of WhatIfSports.com) of the big four bowl games, played on January 2nd & 3rd...


Rose Bowl
TCU (16) - Wisconsin (9, Big Ten)

The Big Ten champs face of against the winner of Playoff Bowl I:










Wisconsin Badgers 14 3 3 14 34
TCU Horned Frogs 0 3 10 18 31

In a tight close match, Wisconsin holds off on a TCU comeback and enters the final four...


Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State (3, Big 12) - Louisiana Tech

Oklahoma State goes against the upset winners against number one LSU:










Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 7 3 10 0 20
Oklahoma State Cowboys 14 21 0 10 45

The Bulldogs play admirably, but are no match for the Cowboys...

Orange Bowl
West Virginia (23, Big East) - Southern Miss (22)

The Big East winners go against the non-BCS Southern Miss, which is actually ranked higher than West Virginia...










Southern Miss Golden Eagles 0 0 7 7 14
West Virginia Mountaineers 14 13 7 3 37

The Mountaineers, who didn't make it into the playoffs until the final week, are in the Final Four...

Sugar Bowl
Alabama (2) - Boise State (8)

Last year's Playoff Bowl champ Boise State goes against the highest ranked team remaining...










Boise State Broncos 0 7 7 7 21
Alabama Crimson Tide 17 17 14 16 64

The non-BCS teams go 0-4 in the quarterfinals as the Crimson Tide advance...


Final Four

January 12, 2012
Alabama (2) - West Virginia (23, Big East)










West Virginia Mountaineers 3 0 10 0 13
Alabama Crimson Tide 7 13 0 0 20

January 13, 2012
Oklahoma State (3, Big 12) - Wisconsin (9, Big Ten)










Wisconsin Badgers 0 10 13 17 40
Oklahoma State Cowboys 14 10 21 7 52


Playoff Bowl III
January 21, 2012
Alabama (2) - Oklahoma State (3, Big 12)

In the real world, the big debate was whether Alabama or Oklahoma State deserved to play LSU in the BCS Championship. In this simulation, they are both the deserved finalists...










Oklahoma State Cowboys 14 7 7 3 31
Alabama Crimson Tide 0 21 14 17 52

The Crimson Tide get a decisive win. The only SEC team to make it to the big four bowls, they still manage to cement the conference's deserved rep as the best in the NCAA.

That does it. See you next year!

The Konformist College Playoff Bowl III: Part 2

Robert Sterling
Konformist.com
http://robalini.blogspot.com/

Previously on Konformist.com, we had released the upper and lower brackets for a simulation of a college football playoff. Here are the brackets:

LSU (1, SEC)
Alabama (2)
Oklahoma State (3, Big 12)
Stanford (4)
Oregon (6, PAC-12)
Wisconsin (9, Big Ten)
Clemson (14, ACC)
West Virginia (23, Big East)

Arkansas (7)
Boise State (8)
South Carolina (10)
TCU (16)
Southern Miss (22)
Arkansas State
Northern Illinois
Louisiana Tech

The teams are then pair off in eight opening round playoff games, with the one seed playing the 16, two playing 15, etc. Below is how it'd look this year, with the simulation results, according to WhatIfSports.com:


Fiesta Bowl (Phoenix) Pac-10 Host
Oregon (6, PAC-12) - TCU (16)

Oregon managed to win the PAC-12 over Stanford, and faces a tough opponent in TCU, the top-ranked non-BCS conference winner (and the winner of College Bowl I.) The end results:










TCU Horned Frogs 7 10 10 7 34
Oregon Ducks 0 10 10 7 27

Despite TCU's success in recent years, this is a definite upset!


Florida Citrus Bowl (Orlando) Big Ten Host
Wisconsin (9, Big Ten) - South Carolina (10)

Wisconsin managed to win the Big Ten, while South Carolina is the last of the four teams from the SEC to make the playoffs. Both are top 10 teams, so this should be a good match:










South Carolina Gamecocks 0 10 0 0 10
Wisconsin Badgers 7 28 0 17 52

Or maybe not. The Badgers totally dominate the Gamecocks...


Gator Bowl (Jacksonville) SEC Host
LSU (1, SEC) - Louisiana Tech

LSU is the top-ranked team, the only undefeated team, and the winner of the SEC, the toughest conference in college football. Still, their opponent, Louisiana Tech, is the best sixteen seed by far in the three years of this simulation. Is that enough to win against their same-state opponent?










Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 0 21 3 7 31
LSU Tigers 9 7 7 3 26

Wow! An even bigger upset than the loss of Oregon. It only took three years for the top seed to lose in the opening round...


Liberty Bowl (Memphis) Big East Host
West Virginia (23, Big East) - Arkansas (7)

It took them a little help, but West Virginia squeezed into the playoffs by winning the Big East conference in the last week of play. They face a real tough opponent in number seven Arkansas...










Arkansas Razorbacks 14 7 14 17 52
West Virginia Mountaineers 7 13 14 19 53

In a stunner and a high-scoring game, the Mountaineers, who trailed by a point at the start of the 4th quarter, win the game by a point in a 53-52 battle!


Peach Bowl (Atlanta) ACC Host
Clemson (14, ACC) - Boise State (8)

Last year's upset College Bowl champ Boise State is a top 10 team once again (despite not winning their conference for a second year in a row. They face the ACC champs of Clemson:










Boise State Broncos 0 10 14 10 34
Clemson Tigers 3 3 7 7 20

In what is not a big surprise, Boise State joins fellow non-BCS member TCU in the big four bowl games for the third straight year...


Sun Bowl (El Paso) Big 12 Host
Oklahoma State (3, Big 12) - Arkansas State

Arkansas State, like Louisiana Tech, is a quality unranked team. Can they upset the Big 12 winners of Oklahoma State?










Arkansas State Red Wolves 0 6 10 0 16
Oklahoma State Cowboys 23 14 7 16 60

Nope...


Alamo Bowl (San Antonio)
Stanford (4) - Southern Miss (22)

Stanford was a loss against Oregon from an undefeated season. Southern Miss got into the playoffs by winning over undefeated Houston...










Southern Miss Golden Eagles 7 13 7 14 41
Stanford Cardinal 0 17 0 14 31

Wow! The fourth non-BCS team gets into the big bowls by upsetting Stanford!


Hall of Fame Bowl (Tampa)
Alabama (2) - Northern Illinois

Alabama's only loss came against LSU and play Northern Illinois in the final round of 16 game...










Northern Illinois Huskies 3 3 0 7 13
Alabama Crimson Tide 10 3 7 3 23

Close by the Huskies, but not close enough. The Crimson Tide win, the only SEC team to make it to the big bowls...


Yes, this is a simulation, but simulations are often very revealing, as it is in this case. Among supporters of a college playoff, there is a debate if it should include 8 or 16 teams. The argument for a 16-team playoff is that every conference winner would get a chance to be crowned champions, with an extra five teams to ensure no team is unfairly excluded. The argument for the 8-team playoff is some of the teams not only don't deserve a shot at the championship, but would lead to unwatchable blowouts. Yet this year according to the simulation, four of the eight quarterfinalists came from non-BCS schools, proving that if given an opportunity, they could at least surprise their opponents and upsets aren't as implausible as some might think.

So what are the matchups for the Big Four Bowl Games? Wisconsin, at the Big Ten winner, goes to the Rose Bowl; Oklahoma State, as the Big 12 champ, goes to the Cotton Bowl; West Virginia, the Big East winner, goes to the Orange Bowl; and Alabama gets the Sugar Bowl as the SEC rep after LSU's upset defeat. TCU, the highest ranked West Coast conference winner, gets the PAC-12 slot in the Rose. Louisiana Tech, the other West Coast conference winner, gets the Cotton Bowl. Southern Miss, an East Coast conference champ, takes the ACC slot in the Orange, and that leaves Boise State in the Sugar. Here's how it looks:

Rose Bowl
TCU (16) - Wisconsin (9, Big Ten)

Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State (3, Big 12) - Louisiana Tech

Orange Bowl
West Virginia (23, Big East) - Southern Miss (22)

Sugar Bowl
Alabama (2) - Boise State (8)


Tomorrow we'll have the results of the playoffs. Stay tuned!

The Konformist College Playoff Bowl III: Part 1

Robert Sterling
Konformist.com
http://robalini.blogspot.com/

December is here, and it's time for The Konformist annual push for a college football playoff to decide a champion over the current BCS system.

Let's give the BCS some credit this year: since The Konformist has covered this story in 2007, this is actually the least controversial solution for who should play in the BCS championship. LSU, the nation's only undefeated FBS team even while playing in the toughest conference, is as non-controversial choice you can have, and Alabama, who had its only loss against LSU, has a strong case as well. Certainly Oklahoma State (who won its conference, something Alabama can't claim) has a great argument it its favor, but as BCS outrages go, it's pretty minimal, Furthermore, there are no undefeated non-BCS conference teams, and none of the non-BCS conference champs have less than two losses. For this year, then, the most offensive nature of the BCS system, that it violates anti-trust laws by depriving certain teams any opportunity to play in the college championship, is not an issue. (In fact, in the first two years of a playoff simulation, the winners, TCU in 2009 and Boise State in 2010, were non-BCS conference teams.)

This doesn't excuse the BCS system. If this is the least objectionable solution over the last five years, and the solution still has the controversy over Alabama or Oklahoma State, that is pretty indicting. Likewise, this year's results are a decided aberration, and overall the system is still decidedly unfair, unjust and in violation of federal anti-trust laws.

The solution still is a playoff, which is how every other major sport (professional and college) decides its annual champ. The Konformist playoff plan meets the four main goals The Konformist laid out in 2007:

1. Respect the traditions of the big four bowl games as much as possible, even more so than the current system does;
2. Make sure that the big four bowls actually are a central part of crowning the championship;
3. Allow bowl games with notable histories of their own to be included in the mix; and, perhaps most important:
4. Create a playoff system that produces an actual season championship.

With that in mind, here's how the playoff plan would work out in 2011, aided by game simulations made via WhatIfSports.com, in the third annual college football playoff.

The playoff would involve sixteen teams, so the champions from all eleven conferences can be included. The other five spaces would include Notre Dame if it's in the top 25, then the top AP ranked teams that aren't conference winners, limited to one per conference unless the team was in the top 10. This year, it would be Alabama, Stanford, Arkansas, Boise State and South Carolina. (USC is number 5, but was barred from playing any bowl games this year. Though the NCAA is a politically biased group, the penalty will be honored in this playoff. Meanwhile, the SEC, cementing its rep as the toughest conference is college football, earns three of the five wild-card teams.)

For the first round (held the week ending December 17th) the sixteen teams would be put in upper and lower brackets. In the upper bracket would be the winners of the six BCS conferences, the highest ranked non-BCS conference champ and the highest ranked non-Conference winner. The two brackets would then be placed in order of their AP ranking.

In a surprise move, West Virginia protests, and argues that Stanford, being one of the top four teams, deserves the upper bracket more than TCU, which is ranked 16th. (West Virginia would rather play Arkansas than Stanford.) After a debate, it is ruled in favor of West Virginia that a top four wild card should earn an upper bracket over a non-BCS conference champ with a lower ranking. (As precedent it is cited the top four have had an insider track to BCS games.)

So here's how it would look in 2011:

LSU (1, SEC)
Alabama (2)
Oklahoma State (3, Big 12)
Stanford (4)
Oregon (6, PAC-12)
Wisconsin (9, Big Ten)
Clemson (14, ACC)
West Virginia (23, Big East)

Arkansas (7)
Boise State (8)
South Carolina (10)
TCU (16)
Southern Miss (22)
Arkansas State
Northern Illinois
Louisiana Tech

The teams would then pair off in eight opening round playoff games, with the one seed playing the 16, two playing 15, etc. Below is how it'd look this year:

Alamo Bowl (San Antonio) Stanford (4) - Southern Miss (22)

Fiesta Bowl (Phoenix) Pac-10 Host
Oregon (6, PAC-12) - TCU (16)

Florida Citrus Bowl (Orlando) Big Ten Host
Wisconsin (9, Big Ten) - South Carolina (10)

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville) SEC Host
LSU (1, SEC) - Louisiana Tech

Hall of Fame Bowl (Tampa)
Alabama (2) - Northern Illinois

Liberty Bowl (Memphis) Big East Host
West Virginia (23, Big East) - Arkansas (7)

Peach Bowl (Atlanta) ACC Host
Clemson (14, ACC) - Boise State (8)

Sun Bowl (El Paso) Big 12 Host
Oklahoma State (3, Big 12) - Arkansas State

Not that it changes anything in the simulation, but the sites for the bowls have changed this year. The biggest change: the Fiesta Bowl has been downgraded from one of the big four bowls, replaced by the Cotton Bowl. (This is both due to corruption by the Fiesta Bowl administrators and as punishment for Arizona passing an anti-Latino racial profiling law.) So now the eight game hosts for the playoff opening round are the Fiesta Bowl and the five minor bowls founded before 1970, plus the two most economically succesful bowls remaining: the Alamo Bowl (replacing the Holiday Bowl) and the Hall of Fame Bowl (aka the Outback Bowl: sorry, I refuse to recognize bowl names that are due to corporate sponsorship.) These sites are free to host other bowl games afterwards if they want, but it at least recognizes these sites as places of historical importance. (The NCAA would no doubt come up with its own plan on where these games would be played, probably based on the highest bidder, but it wouldn't look too different than this. In any case, this is our simulation, so The Konformist decides where the games are played.)

From top down, this is the most competitive group of teams since we've started this simulation. Even the bottom team, Louisiana Tech, at 8-4, is a talented team with an outside chance of upsetting its neighbor LSU. Four of the games look extremely competitive, with the host playing a top 20 team. So who are the winners?

Stay tuned for part two, when we reveal the winners of round one...

Aliens Love NFL Football

From HuffPo:
For many football fans who watched the New Orleans Saints rout the Indianapolis Colts on Oct. 23, the most unusual thing about the game was the lopsided final score of 62-7.

But for UFO aficionados and paranormal experts who tuned in, they may have seen something in the sky that was even more out-of-the-ordinary than the tossing of more touchdowns vs. incompletions.

As NBC's cameras returned from a commercial break and focused on the historic, triple-steepled St. Louis Cathedral in the city nicknamed the Big Easy, a couple of lit objects seemed to streak across the darkening sky -- and they've yet to be definitively identified.

Viewed in real-time, it's hard to see much more than something flashing across the screen. But a frame-by-frame scrutiny of the video reveals a rod-shaped object topped with brightly lit dots.

Rod-shaped UFOs? Actually, this isn't the first time such objects have been seen and photographed.

In 1994, independent filmmaker Jose Escamilla was attempting to videotape UFOs near Roswell, N.M. -- yes, that Roswell -- home of the legendary, alleged crash of a UFO in 1947 that has captured the imaginations of millions of people for decades.

"As I reviewed one of the tapes, I noticed something streak past my camera viewfinder and thought at first it was just a bird or insect," Escamilla told The Huffington Post.

"Looking at each frame of the footage again, I knew it was something more unusual. My girlfriend at the time called them 'rods' as they sort of looked like some kind of life form you'd see in a microscope."

Since that time, Escamilla has collected hundreds of taped examples from around the world of these so-called rods, which vary in physical form: Some look like centipedes with appendages and others have no appendages but appear to have lights on top of them.

Skeptics maintain there's nothing extraordinary about all of this -- the objects, they say, are merely insects flying very close to the camera lens.

"I think these are insects that got caught in that interlaced video as they're flying through with a wing beat frequency, and the frames are being captured at a frequency... that causes that look," insisted Marc Dantonio, chief photo and video analyst for the Mutual UFO Network.

Dantonio owns FX Models -- a Connecticut company that creates special effects and models for the government. He's one of many investigators who insist that when an object -- moving very fast, like a flying insect -- gets close enough to a camera lens with a slow enough shutter speed, it produces an effect called motion blur, making the insect's wings appear elongated, or rod-shaped.

"They're fascinating, but they're actually quite down to earth," Dantonio said.

But one little frame of the video may be the one little problem that could rule out the insect theory. Amazingly, the frame reveals the mystery object is moving behind one of the cathedral towers. But how could that be if it was only an insect?

"The object is not going behind the cathedral -- it's actually in front of it," Dantonio said. "But because of the saturated CCD [charge-coupled device used in digital imaging], it looks like it's going behind. And when you see those three dots or lights [on the object], I think they're wing beats."

But when Dantonio took a closer look at the single video frame in question, he began to bend a little.

"Yeah, that sure does look weird. I won't say it's not interesting, but I'll tell you right now: I'm sure that there's a conventional explanation and I believe firmly that this is something very close to the camera."

Robert Sheaffer, one of the world's leading UFO skeptics, agrees.

"Every time something flies in front of a camera now it's gonna be a UFO -- little bugs, some little bird, anything," Sheaffer said.

When the arch doubter first looked at the Big Easy video, he immediately assumed the mystery object was an insect. But when Sheaffer -- who was featured at this past weekend's all-skeptics CSIcon conference in, coincidentally, New Orleans -- looked more closely at the single "smoking gun" video frame from the cathedral, he admitted it has him a little stumped.

"The first time I watched this thing, I didn't even see that [the rod] was there. Now I'm looking at the part where [the video] is slowing down, slow, slow, zoom, zoom...okay, now I agree -- I see that it pauses right behind the left spire, at least it seems to catch it right behind it, and that building is pretty far away. It really looks like it's going behind."

Another thing adds fuel to the rod fire: Many previous images also show these pesky elongated objects moving in the sky behind things like trees, power poles, buildings, etc. Can all of them be simply explained as tricks or optical illusions resulting in slow camera recording speeds?

"It could be explained as an insect, but what I've found on a lot of footage over the years is that these things do go behind structures, such as this cathedral tower," Escamilla said...

UFO At NFL Game: TV Camera Captures Strange Object In Flight During Broadcast
Lee Speigel
lee.speigel@huffingtonpost.com
11/1/11
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/01/ufo-nfl-game_n_1033966.html

Konformist Book Club: Sweetness

The Enigmatic Life of Walter Payton
Jeff Pearlman

List Price: $30.00
Price: $17.85 & eligible for FREE Super Saver Shipping on orders over $25.
You Save: $12.15 (41%)
Kindle Edition $14.99

Robalini's Review: Sensationalized excerpts of this book were released by Sports Illustrated, which is a shame, for they don't give this book it's due. This is no tabloid tale, but rather a complex, nuanced biography about a football legend who died a heroic but shattered man. In a way, this book isn't just about Payton, nor is it about football. It is a microview of America, for better and worse: how a black man in a crudely segregated area became a unifying star thanks to his athletic prowess, then became a rich man and national icon due to his talents, only to become crippled in pain by the game he gave so much to and leading to an early, painful death. Payton was not perfect, but you will come away empathizing with him and wondering if all his rewards were worth the sacrifices.

From Amazon.com:

The first definitive biography of Chicago Bears superstar Walter Payton.

At five feet ten inches tall, running back Walter Peyton was not the largest player in the NFL, but he developed a larger-than-life reputation for his strength, speed, and grit. Nicknamed Sweetness" during his college football days, he became the NFL's all-time leader in rushing and all-purpose yards, capturing the hearts of fans in his adopted Chicago.

Crafted from interviews with more than 700 sources, acclaimed sportswriter Jeff Pearlman has produced the first definitive biography of Payton. Sweetness at last brings fans a detailed, scrupulously researched, all-encompassing account of the legend's rise to greatness. From Payton's childhood in segregated Mississippi, where he ended a racial war by becoming the star of his integrated high school's football team, to his college years and his twelve-year NFL career, Sweetness brims with stories of all-American heroism, and covers Payton's life off the field as well. Set against the backdrop of the tragic illness that cut his life short at just forty- six years of age, this is a stirring tribute to a singular icon and the lasting legacy he made.

Jeff Pearlman is the author of four previous books, including two New York Times bestsellers-The Bad Guys Won! and Boys Will Be Boys. He is a columnist for SI.com, as well as a contributor to the Wall Street Journal. He blogs regularly at jeffpearlman.com. Pearlman and his family live in New York.

Publisher: Gotham Books (October 4, 2011)
Sold by: Penguin Publishing
Language: English
ASIN: B0052RDJ40

Amazon URLs

Kindle Edition:
http://www.amazon.com/Sweetness-Enigmatic-Walter-Payton-ebook/dp/B0052RDJ40/thekonformist

Hardcover Edition:
http://www.amazon.com/Sweetness-Enigmatic-Life-Walter-Payton/dp/159240653X/thekonformist