Wednesday, April 15, 2009

The NHL playoffs

Okay, first the draft lottery. The Isles won, with Tampa coming in second. Unless someone in either team's management goes mad, that will mean the Islanders drafting John Tavares and the Lightning getting Victor Hedman.

This was the best order for both teams; I actually believe that had Tampa won the right to draft first, they should have drafted Hedman. Tampa desperately needs a reliable franchise defenseman, and they should get that in Hedman. The Islanders, in the bottom of the league in attendance numbers for years and in the middle of a local politics conflict over the building of their new arena, get a star forward to attract fans to the games, and a dynamic young player who should fit right into the Islanders' youth movement.

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Now, the playoffs! Predictions:

East:

Boston - Montréal
As much as I want the Habs to win in their centennial year, I don't believe it for a second. The Bruins in five.

Washington - New York
The Rangers play a fairly solid game, but I doubt they can stop the hungry Capitals. The Caps' goaltending is a question mark, but the Rangers' scoring is a bigger one. Caps in six.

New Jersey - Carolina
A rested Brodeur in the playoffs, playing behind a Devils team that showed incredible offensive skills, for a New Jersey team? They might even win the Cup. Devils in six.

Pittsburgh - Philadelphia
On paper, the Flyers should have everything it takes to beat the Penguins: good defensive forwards, a balanced attack, a tough, physical team. (The Flyers' goaltending has been highlighted as their big problem, and sure, Biron hasn't been what he should be, but I still maintain that the actual problem isn't the goaltending, it's the defense, especially the defensemen. The Flyers need a defensive leader and they need one fast. Anyone from Finland should know that a team that looks to Kimmo Timonen to anchor its defense is in trouble) For some reason, though, the Flyers can't seem to do it. I desperately want the Flyers to destroy the Penguins in the playoffs like they should, but I sadly expect the Flyers to humiliatingly choke like they did last year.
Pens in five.


The great mystery of the East is how the Bruins will do. Will they be as dominant in the playoffs as they were in the regular season, or will they go bust? They might win the conference, they might lose to the Habs in the first round. If the Bruins advance, they'll most likely play the winner of the Flyers-Pens series, as I expect both New Jersey and Washington to win their series. That conference semi-final will be the toughest test for the Bruins in these playoffs; if they win it, they may well win the Cup, or at least make a strong bid for it in the final.

My prediction is a Boston-New Jersey conference final, with Boston advancing.

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West:

San Jose - Anaheim
This is a great series for the Sharks to find out where they are. Anaheim traded away some veterans at the deadline, but the core of the team that won the Cup is still there. San Jose, on the other hand, has never gotten anywhere in the playoffs. The Ducks are an excellent test for them. If they pass, they'll go far. I think they will, but I'd be reluctant to put money on it. This should be a great, physical series, also with great skill when Teemu Selänne meets Joe Thornton. Sharks in six.

Detroit - Columbus
The battle of the goaltenders. Chris Osgood has been dismally bad this season, while Steve Mason has been nothing short of amazing. If it stays that way in the playoffs, the Wings will have a hard time. Columbus has been surprisingly good in the deadlocked West, and they should be hungry. I expect a great series, and again, I don't know which way this is going to go. Just because of the Stanley Cup hangover and the dubious goaltending, I want to believe that the Jackets will take it in seven.

Canucks - Blues
The most interesting series in the West by far, and the toughest one to call. In the Luongo Era, the Canucks have been solid defensively and rubbish at scoring; a classic trap team. Basically, if the Blues can contain the Canucks' fairly thin offense and crack the trap, they might score the upset. The Canucks are the favorites to win this by a long shot, so I have to say Canucks in six.

Chicago - Calgary
This one ought to be good too. The Chicago youth movement versus Mike Keenan. Keenan's Flames have been impossible to predict; at times brilliant and bristling with offense, at times incredibly bad. Looking at some of the games, it feels like Keenan's been working hard to destroy the Flames' defensive game. Kiprusoff is the key to their success, but I agree with Don Cherry on this one: he's played far too much in the regular season and will be tired. This series, too, could go either way, but I say Chicago in six.


Here it's really tough to say who will end up in the conference final. I feel like I should say San Jose - Detroit, but I'm not so sure about Detroit. San Jose I expect will make it, if they can weather the Ducks.

A San Jose - Boston final would be worth seeing.

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Olli Jokinen will play in his first playoff game ever this week, ending the NHL's longest streak of regular-season games without a single playoff appearance. He deserves it, and I'm happy he's finally getting there.

It ought to be a fun playoffs. I can't wait!

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